Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3178 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:51 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
It can't raise more that $20.00 per day. A bank holiday and close the stock market for a day could help a little too. But I think we could see $200.00 within 3-4 days after the first strike. I think we are days/weeks from finding out.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:05 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Toyota wrote:
it depends on what Iran does!
But 250/350 $ pr barrel is likely!
very true just a small reduction in oil puts the price spiraling out of control could you imagine if iran suddenly just for a few days or weeks cutt their supply in half
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4714 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:27 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Just a simple bombing run that Iran will take and then get over itself, $180.
If we're talking about doomsday scenario, $300 or more (assuming the oil markets even continued to function after that point).
Here's the doomsday scenario:
Israel bombs the enrichment facility.
-Iran retaliates with a missile attack against Israel.
Missiles cross American (Iraqi) airspace.
-Americans retaliate by launching some kind of strike against the missile launching pads.
Iran responds by attacking US naval forces in the Gulf.
-America attacks Iranian airbases
Iran decides to declare total war:
1. Massive missile/air attack against US and Arab shipping in the Gulf.
2. Massive attack against Saudi oil facilities, Kuwati oil, Iraqi oil, EVERYONE.
3. Straights of Hormuz gets SHUT DOWN for WEEKS.
4. 1/4 of the world's oil production is offline for years.
5. Iranian soldiers attack US forces in Iraq and find massive support among the local Shiite muslim population.
6. Outright revolution in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
7. Global economy shuts down, chaos, death, zombies.
Basically, that's the end of the world as we know it.
Iran has the capability to destroy the global economy, destroy most of the Middle East's governments, wipe out much of the world's oil production, and basically kill a billion people in 5 years.
That's why I don't think it's going to happen. Israeli and American policy makers are a lot smarter than I am and they know damn well what would happen if they attacked Iran.
It would be the ultimate doomer porn fantasy imaginable.
Again, everyone in places that matter knows this. That's why they won't let it happen.
Oh, and I'd lose hundreds of dollars in bets. (I've been betting heavily against the possibility of war and I'd lose a fortune if the war actually happened)
Of course, it wouldn't matter because there would be nothing to buy with those dollars after the economic collapse.
I think we can get through the coming energy crisis without a collapse in industrial civilization, but if our leaders get stupid and decide to attack Iran...it's all over. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Quote:
think we can get through the coming energy crisis without a collapse in industrial civilization, but if our leaders get stupid and decide to attack Iran...it's all over.
Tyler,
That above statement really is the only difference between you and I. I think people generally act reasonable, but I have much less faith in gov'ts acting reasonable.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Tyler wrote:
That's why I don't think it's going to happen. Israeli and American policy makers are a lot smarter than I am and they know damn well what would happen if they attacked Iran.
I agree with most of your post, but not the above-quoted portion.
Israel cares only about Israel.
If Israel's two options were . . .
1. Do nothing and watch a neighbor start to rival you in power and pose a long term threat to your dominance and occupation, or . . .
2. Bomb, help bomb, or pay for/encourage the bombing of Iran, thereby sending the world off an economic cliff but also making Israel relatively safer,
then i have ZERO doubt that the "policy makers" in Israel choose option 2 with less than 10 seconds of debate. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4948 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
whatpeak wrote:
8. Iranian-backed terrorist group simultaneously detonates nuclear devices near American military base in ME and Tel Aviv.
9. United States Central Command retaliates in kind.
US retaliates with with what? US ground forces are spent. None left.
And at whom? It could take a very long time to prove the small group was backed by Iran. Whose nukes anyhow? Iran has none. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4714 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Don't forget that America has a large number of military bases in the Middle East.
There are a large number of fighter jets and bomber planes sitting around, waiting for something to do.
It would take a while to dramatically ramp up US military presence in the region but a massive bombing campaign is what America does best.
A physical invasion of Iran is impractical but given a few weeks, the US could still destroy a fairly large chunk of Iran's cities and basic infrastructure.
It's a doomsday scenario so we're assuming that the war is escalated to its worst conclusion.
The real winner in this scenario is Russia. Everyone else is either economically (Europe, US, China) or physically (Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi)devastated.
I don't believe that the US would initiative a first strike nuclear attack unless the actual homeland is threatened, the geopolitical costs would outweigh the benefit. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4948 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
Considering the terrific worldwide economic damage resulting from a US attack on Iran, and since the US obviously wants to bomb someone fairly soon, wouldn't it be cheaper for the US to just bomb a few US or Canadian cities instead?
The economic damage could be repaired in short order, and the price of oil wouldn't spike. Say an early morning attack on Detroit or Los Angeles? A few cities no one would miss anyhow? Something to consider. _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:07 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
eastbay wrote:
Considering the terrific worldwide economic damage resulting from a US attack on Iran, and since the US obviously wants to bomb someone fairly soon, wouldn't it be cheaper for the US to just bomb a few US or Canadian cities instead?
The economic damage could be repaired in short order, and the price of oil wouldn't spike. Say an early morning attack on Detroit or Los Angeles? A few cities no one would miss anyhow? Something to consider.
I seriously advise that you not joke about such things. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4714 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: Re: how high will oil go if Israel bombs iran?
eastbay wrote:
Considering the terrific worldwide economic damage resulting from a US attack on Iran, and since the US obviously wants to bomb someone fairly soon, wouldn't it be cheaper for the US to just bomb a few US or Canadian cities instead?
The economic damage could be repaired in short order, and the price of oil wouldn't spike. Say an early morning attack on Detroit or Los Angeles? A few cities no one would miss anyhow? Something to consider.
If they bombed Detroit...would it look any different?
It already looks pretty bombed out to me. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
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