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Peakoil.com :: View topic - THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
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THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
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KevO
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:34 am    Post subject: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The saddest news I've heard in years.
We are truly f**** as a species and a planet. At least our kids and grandkids, if they survive, will hate us eternally for not only being a part of it but for allowing this holocaust to happen.

Forests to fall for food and fuel
Quote:
Demand for land to grow food, fuel crops and wood is set to outstrip supply, leading to the probable destruction of forests, a report warns.
The Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI) says only half of the extra land needed by 2030 is available without eating into tropical forested areas.
"Arguably, we are on the verge of a last great global land grab," said RRI's Andy White, co-author of the major report, Seeing People through the Trees.

"It will mean more deforestation, more conflict, more carbon emissions, more climate change and less prosperity for everyone."
Rising demand for food, biofuels and wood for paper, building and industry means that 515 million hectares of extra land will be needed for growing crops and trees by 2030, RRI calculates.
But only 200 million hectares will be available without dipping into tropical forests.
BBC News
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DefiledEngine
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:22 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Maybe this time, we can actually ask the guy cutting down the last standing tree what he is thinking?

Seriously, this shouldn't come as any surprise, people want better lives just like what most of the people on this board have, so cutting down a few trees won't stop them. It's gonna be interesting in a few years to see forest degradation pick up speed, which I think it will. Interesting times, indeed.
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DoomWarrior
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:30 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

DefiledEngine wrote:
Seriously, this shouldn't come as any surprise.

This outcome is totally inevitable (given human greed and human short-sightedness), and there is no way around it. Humans are destined to focus on the PRESENT, and DAMN THE FUTURE.
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DefiledEngine
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:40 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

AS they should, that how we evolved, our ancestors would be proud, and they know how it was to fight through numerous global changes like global warming.
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ohanian
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:00 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Relax, if the people of Easter Island can survive by
(1) Killing their enemies
(2) Eating Human flesh

Then so can we.
(1) We should kill our enemies and take their resourses

(2) We should eat our enemies and take their flesh

Anyone for Soylent Green? Soylent Green is a 1973 dystopian science fiction movie depicting a bleak future in which overpopulation, pollution, and the resulting severe damage to the environment have led to widespread unemployment and poverty. Real fruit, vegetables, and meat are rare, commodities are expensive, and much of the population survives on processed food rations, including "soylent green" wafers.

I know because I stand on Zanzibar


The author John Brunner remarked that the 7 billion people whom he projected would be alive in 2010 would need to stand on Zanzibar (area 1554 km²).
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:00 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

KevO wrote:
The saddest news I've heard in years.
We are truly f**** as a species and a planet. At least our kids and grandkids, if they survive, will hate us eternally for not only being a part of it but for allowing this holocaust to happen.

Forests to fall for food and fuel
Quote:
Demand for land to grow food, fuel crops and wood is set to outstrip supply, leading to the probable destruction of forests, a report warns.
The Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI) says only half of the extra land needed by 2030 is available without eating into tropical forested areas.
"Arguably, we are on the verge of a last great global land grab," said RRI's Andy White, co-author of the major report, Seeing People through the Trees.

"It will mean more deforestation, more conflict, more carbon emissions, more climate change and less prosperity for everyone."
Rising demand for food, biofuels and wood for paper, building and industry means that 515 million hectares of extra land will be needed for growing crops and trees by 2030, RRI calculates.
But only 200 million hectares will be available without dipping into tropical forests.
BBC News


Maybe it is time to call for nuclear solution?
Maybe some important peoples already decided...
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Ayame
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:05 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Once again the age old question of 'are humans smarter than yeast?' is answered with a resounding no.
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TheDude
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Soylent Green was the film version of Harry Harrison's novel Make Room! Make Room! They cooked up the cannabilism for the Hollywood version. There's a scene early in the book where a mob riots and breaks a store window, one of the characters manages to grab a few boxes of tofu steaks or something; when he gets away from the crowd he deliriously gobbles three of them them down, relishing in the delight of having a full stomach, something he's almost never known in his young life. Very powerful bit of writing.

Courtesy of Beach Boy from the 12th Drumbeat at TOD:

Quote:
Since a suitable simplified model for today's economy is the case of Easter Island as described in Jared Diamond's book Collapse (actually in Easter Island they had the chance to restrain tree cutting to match the reforestation rate, whereas now we don't have that possibility with fossil fuels), the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac issue of late inspired the following news item, which would have been dated a few years before the Island's societal collapse:

Rapa Nui News Services - The Island Councellor in charge of Economic and Financial Affairs hosted a press conference on the recent troubles affecting the Federal Moai Loan Corporation (Femo Loa). He said: "I am proposing the Island Council that Femo Loa becomes backed by the full faith and credit of Rapa Nui. Moai construction and related activities are an essential part of the Island's economy, providing jobs to one third of the Island's workforce. The ongoing crisis in moai financing has already caused a significant slowdown in moai construction and threatens the prospects for the Island's economic growth."

When asked his position on the views that moai construction was causing an unsustainable rate of felling of the Island's palm tree reserves, the Councellor said: "The concerns of so-called Peak Palmers are unfounded, and their predictions have already been proved wrong in the past. They underestimate the impact of technological advances and human ingenuity."

He further pointed out that the recent launch of a new generation of whistles with customizable sound frequencies was a clear demonstration of the ability of technology to overcome challenges.

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Specop_007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:31 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

KevO wrote:
The saddest news I've heard in years.
We are truly f**** as a species and a planet. At least our kids and grandkids, if they survive, will hate us eternally for not only being a part of it but for allowing this holocaust to happen.



They will only hate the driving generalized mindset. Much as a Republican hates a Democrat or vice versa. While its possible to find a Democrat a Republican would like, as a generalized statement.....

I'm fairly confident my kids will be smart enough to see the trees for the forest and vice versa, at least figuratively. Wink

Hell, my 7 year old now probably knows more about gardening then 3/4 of our subdivision. Smile
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Revi
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:45 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

We live in the most forested state in the nation. They are talking about using cellulosic ethanol to keep cars going. They are using more than the regeneration now with the biomass. I went up to the areas that are being cut up north, and saw biomass stacked up next to the road for five miles. The topwood that used to sit in the woods, rot and regenerate the soil is all being skidded out now. How many more years of that before we start to see rocky areas that won't support regeneration at all?

I agree, we are going down a similar path to Easter Island.

And the reason for the cellulosic ethanol? To drive cars around. Why are we wrecking our children's future to feed something that is made of metal and has a life shorter than that of a cat? Our Moaii are cars. We move heaven and earth to make them go.

Why?

We just built one that gets around and uses about 1/10th of the energy of a typical car. It will get you around town with a friend and hundreds of pounds of whatever you need to move around for a penny a mile. It even recharges in the sun. What's the problem?

www.sunnev.com
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:49 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

KevO said:

Quote:
The saddest news I've heard in years.
We are truly f**** as a species and a planet. At least our kids and grandkids, if they survive, will hate us eternally for not only being a part of it but for allowing this holocaust to happen.


It is doubtful that we will cut down all the trees in the next 17 years. The Available Energy Model predicts that we will reach the functional end of the oil age within that time frame. Declining energy availability over the next decade will slow economic activity to a halt.

A dramatic fall in world population over the next few decades is very likely to occur. As fossil fuel depletion impacts food production the population will decline. This will ensure that the world will not be fatally stripped. The survivors will be too busy trying to survive to put much effort into hating their self deluded ancestors.

Hopefully, our progeny will discover why our two million year old relic of a brain was not particularly efficacious for the development of an advanced technological society. A brain that was designed by evolution to assist in the development of stone tools seems to have fallen short when applied to the development of a sustainable world wide resource base.
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lorenzo
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:32 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'd kindly like to call serious BS on this.

Scientists (that is: not ideologues), have found that:

-by 2050, when population stands at 9 billion
-we can produce enough food, fodder, fiber and forest products
-to meet demand
-while having enough land left to grow biomass for the production of 1500 Exajoules worth of energy (that is: 4 times as much energy as we consume on the planet today)
-without cutting a single tree (a strict no-deforestation scenario), and while keeping 10% of all land on the planet as conservation areas

Of course, this is a scenario in which land is used optimally, and in which all farmers in the developing world use efficient farming techniques. (Yields in sub-Saharan Africa are currently only 20% of what they could be with only marginal inputs.)

The scenario also foresees a universal distribution of efficient animal production systems (that is: no more grazing).

On the other hand, it doesn't take into account possible effects of climate change on crop production, because these are hard to predict. Some regions will have a higher production capacity because of global warming, others will see theirs decline.

Finally, the scenario does not take into account the development of new crops and biotechnology.


In any case, the potential for agricultural production without deforestation is very, very large.

Moreover, country-specific projections show that, for example, a country like the DRC has the agro-ecological potential to produce and yield food for 2 to 3 billion people, without cutting a single tree. A single country like the DRC can feed all new people that will be born on the planet between today and 2050. All it needs is the investment in infrastructures and inputs.


The RRI study does not make sense. It's another crappy piece of non-science based panic-mongering.

Sorry, I stick to science.

The scenario I refer to - made by the Copernicus Institute - is now the official backbone of the FAO's projection models on food, fiber, fodder and fuel potential.
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No-Oil
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:39 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think you will find that the Easter Islanders survived because some bloke called Cook turned up in a space ship, well a Naval Ship & rescued them.

If the human race is expecting an alien or a god to intervene when the whole planet reaches the same stage as Easter Island, then we are all doomed Sad

Not greed or short sightedness this time, just pure stupidity just like the Easter Islanders ! remember knowledge does NOT equal inteligence, which is something most people don't comprehend including most learn'ed people I know ! And that will be our undoing Sad
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:03 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

lorenzo said:

Quote:
I'd kindly like to call serious BS on this.

Scientists (that is: not ideologues), have found that:

-by 2050, when population stands at 9 billion
-we can produce enough food, fodder, fiber and forest products
-to meet demand

etc.

What batch of witches do you intend to burn to supply the energy to produce these miraculous miracles. That energy sure isn’t going to be coming from oil!
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lorenzo
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:14 am    Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

shortonoil wrote:
lorenzo said:

Quote:
I'd kindly like to call serious BS on this.

Scientists (that is: not ideologues), have found that:

-by 2050, when population stands at 9 billion
-we can produce enough food, fodder, fiber and forest products
-to meet demand

etc.

What batch of witches do you intend to burn to supply the energy to produce these miraculous miracles. That energy sure isn’t going to be coming from oil!


Do you honestly think top scientists are so stupid as to not to include this question in their research?
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