Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:42 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
idiom wrote:
Righto. I woke up on the noob side of the bed today.
Don't get ahead of yourself. Check out all the data for 2008, as well as the, according to MonteQuest, declines from 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. Maybe I made a mistake when adding, but it appears that oil imports are going down again in the US if trends continue. For example, we saw the first drop in US VMT in the last couple decades, so it's certainly possible that people are cutting back on driving due to income, or lack of income specifically. At the very least, the last time prices were this high in the US, we saw similar behavior.
Edit-MonteQuest was initially correct about the drop in US oil imports over the past two years. Here's the info.
So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year. The American consumer is not immune to high oil prices. _________________
Professor Membrane wrote:
Not now son! I'm making...TOAST!
Last edited by yesplease on Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
13, 943 is higher than any year in this string of data since 2000.
Crude oil imports:
2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439 _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
yesplease wrote:
So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year.
Currently they are rising 200,000/week.
Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Weekly Imports
June 6, 2008 thru July 11, 2008
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943 _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
MonteQuest wrote:
I said imports are rising right now and they are.
You referred to the rate of growth of imports initially.
MonteQuest wrote:
Not enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
MonteQuest wrote:
The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing.
Now, if you feel that a couple months of data is a better representation of import growth than a few years, even though as you said, in the short term...
MonteQuest wrote:
The import numbers go up and down in response to many things.
That's your decision. Black is white, good is bad, up is down... _________________
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:
So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year.
Currently they are rising 200,000/week.
MonteQuest wrote:
One year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing.
Or, to put it another way, two months does not a "trend" make.
But, like I said before, if you think that it's better to base trends off a couple month increase while ignoring the nearly three year overall decrease, which includes the couple month increase, that's your call. _________________
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
US oil imports are going to continue to rise. Period.
No supply side additions is going to change this. Period.
New US domestic production has not been able to offset decline even after doubling the number of wells drilled since 2000.
No amount of drilling is going to reduce imports; it will only slow the rate of growth at best. Period.
Next? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Am I missing something here? Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years? I don't think that would be an objective comparison. But if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times. Someone please clarify this for me!
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
EndSuburbia wrote:
Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years?
No, just higher than that string of data. We have seen imports over 15 mbpd.
Quote:
But if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times.
My bad. I can see how it could be read that way. But, no, I am not.
Obviously 13.9 is higher than those averages, whcih is what I said.
The point was that imports are rising from 13.1 to 13.9 right now.
With the roller coaster swings of imports, one can pick data to support almost anything, especially if you leave out drawdown of stocks and ethanol.
I stand by my last post. Imports are going nowhere but up. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 755 Location: northern California
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
MonteQuest wrote:
One year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing. There is no domestic production that is going to prevent an increase in oil imports to the US.
edited to clarify MQ's statement, as I mis-interpreted it at first reading, sorry. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Last edited by dunewalker on Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
MonteQuest wrote:
EndSuburbia wrote:
Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years?
No, just higher than that string of data. We have seen imports over 15 mbpd.
Quote:
But if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times.
My bad. I can see how it could be read that way. But, no, I am not.
Obviously 13.9 is higher than those averages, whcih is what I said.
The point was that imports are rising from 13.1 to 13.9 right now.
With the roller coaster swings of imports, one can pick data to support almost anything, especially if you leave out drawdown of stocks and ethanol.
I stand by my last post. Imports are going nowhere but up.
Ok, that makes sense. I think we can all agree that for that past 5 weeks imports have been rising. So I suppose yesplease was saying that the data proving a decrease in imports makes the recent trend of increases irrelevent. As an outside observer I can see the points that both of you are making. It seems that what's important can often be lost in heated discussion.
Well anyway, I'm glad I found this site. It's gonna be helpful to network with people like you when dealing with our current energy crisis. So few people that I know have opened their eyes to peak oil, so I have very little local support. Based on what I've learned here, I've won a few arguments about solving the oil problem.
Just yesterday was explaining how much time it's going to take to get benefits from OCS drilling because of our shortage of oil rigs. I hope congress doesn't block it. I want to start attempting to drill and then people will see what trouble we're in when it takes 10+ years to get a few drops out.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
EndSuburbia wrote:
Ok, that makes sense. I think we can all agree that for that past 5 weeks imports have been rising. So I suppose yesplease was saying that the data proving a decrease in imports makes the recent trend of increases irrelevent.
We all know that imports of oil are going to go up.
They have to.
The US is in terminal decline.
No amount of drilling has, or is, going to change that fact.
No amount of biofuels is going to change that fact.
No amount of SPR or oil stocks is going to change that fact but for a short time.
Sure, an implosion of the economy could do it for a short-time, but I was talking about domestic production, specifically, OCS not reducing imports when Yesplease started his BS about imports declining.
And when we see that crude stocks have been drawn down in concert with the decline of imports, we realize that while imports have declined in some periods, it's because the shortfall was made up from either crude stocks, ethanol, or a recession.
So, if the trend is downwards as YP maintains, then we are going to have to pull down crude stocks, ramp up ethanol, and further the recession to do it.
If that is our salvation, we are farked. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 561 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:26 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
So as I understand it, MQ is saying that we have passed the point of discretionary destruction, therefore Imports must go up as off two months ago? Based on the change in data.
Vs a couple of cornucopians who think we can all just lay down and die peacefully? Based on two year trends?
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
idiom wrote:
So as I understand it, MQ is saying that we have passed the point of discretionary destruction, therefore Imports must go up as off two months ago? Based on the change in data.
No, not saying that or even talking about that. I'm talking about new oil supply not being able to offset decline rates and provide for growth and reduce imports.
We have been drawing down inventories of crude to avoid import increases, hoping for a drop in import prices, I imagine. Or to help ease the trade deficit that is pulling down the dollar and causing oil prices to rise.
We are grasping at straws to keep all this afloat.
Sure, there has been some drop in demand, but that's another debate altogether. This thread is about new OCS supply. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Do the math. In 2030, that's 2.2 decades away at 1.2 mbpd/decade = 2.64 mbpd.
Now, under pressure to produce domestically over increasing imports, I think the decline rate will be higher as we resort to severe EOR techiques which we know increases the decline rate.
Then, we have the growth of oil consumption from 21 mbpd to 22.8 mbpd in 2030. 1.8 mbpd.
Decline = 2.64 mbpd in 2030
New demand =1.8 mbpd in 2030
OCS =1 to 2 mbpd in 2030
ANWR = .9 mbpd in 2025
Quote:
TAPS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak.-ASPO
Oil shale = 2 to 3 mbpd maybe
Quote:
The net energy of this process isn’t yet known, but it’s so energy-intensive that we’re willing to bet this technology is unlikely to ever produce more than a modest flow (though perhaps a very long-lived one) of extremely expensive synthetic oil.
ASPO’s Randy Udall puts it this way: “Suppose you owned $100 million dollars, but the bank would only allow you to withdraw $100,000/year. You would be rich…sort of.”-ASPO
There is no possible way that we could produce another 13 million barrels per day domestically to replace imports, no matter where or how quickly we drilled.
Quote:
In total, we believe that if all limits on domestic drilling were removed, it could only increase US oil production by a maximum of 2-3 mbpd.-ASPO
New demand and decline = 4.4 mbpd
New production = 3 mbpd max
We are going to have to import more oil. Period.
Note: These numbers are the best we have at present. We don't know exactly what the decline rate will be or what the demand rate will be or what production will be. But everything points to a shortfall of some degree. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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