Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Quote:
We have real theories for global warming and the denialists have inconsistent, debunked talking points they keep on repeating ad nauseam following the advice of Goebbels.
I'm sorry but that's a rather ridiculous claim, given you can't debate the science yourself. You take what you might have read from a politicized website somewhere, saw in a movie at one time, read in the highly politicized summary from the IPCC and suddenly you think "the science is settled". It's far from settled. If you even bothered to read the actual research part of the IPCC report you would see that there is uncertainty upon uncertainty, many of which are the main questions being asked by those scientists you want to call "denialist". The biggest question you should be asking yourself right now is why not one of the GCM's has predicted the last ten years of average global temperatures. Anthropogenic CO2 continues to rise, no one argues with that...but it is a fact that temperatures have stopped rising. Does this not suggest a disconnect to you? Remember that the entirety of the AGW argument is based on models, absolutely nothing else. So if the modeled predicitons have completely failed, and they have...what does that mean?
And to another point made here you do not need an alternative theory to question another one. The whole point of the scientific method is to come up with a theory and then try to figure our whether or not it makes sense or not. The so-called "denialists" are doing just that. The points that some of the scientists have made are very peritinent and need to be addressed....dismissing them as being unimportant does no one a service.
And your point about plate tectonics...yes it isn't without question, but you know what, as earth scientists we have never dismissed the hard questions coming from other earth scientists about the theory as being from "denialists". An former acquaintance of mine who I had the utmost respect for...Dr. Art Merrihoff was a very famous scientist who continued to question the plate tectonic theory until he died (god rest his soul). Art's comment to me was that he wanted to insure that other scientists were looking at all of the evidence in a clear manner and not just jumping on the band wagon. Many of points he made in a number of papers turned out to be absolutely correct. His view was that the plate tectonic theory was a good one in general, but it still needed to be questioned and probed further..such is the nature of scientific endeavour.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
rockdoc123 wrote:
The biggest question you should be asking yourself right now is why not one of the GCM's has predicted the last ten years of average global temperatures. Anthropogenic CO2 continues to rise, no one argues with that...but it is a fact that temperatures have stopped rising. Does this not suggest a disconnect to you? Remember that the entirety of the AGW argument is based on models, absolutely nothing else. So if the modeled predicitons have completely failed, and they have...what does that mean?
It only suggests that you can cherry pick any set of dates and data sets you want to come up with a short term argument that supports your case. It does not explain away the fact that the trend is continuing to go up and that natural climate variability can still trump CO2.
As well you know, climate models are better predictors over long periods of time. Once again, the observable evidence supports what the models are predicting. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Scientists debate all the time, it hasn't and never will stop. It's part of what they do to arrive at reliable conclusions. Hopeing that they will continue "your" debate is something all together different.
Increased albedo just happens randomly? I would think for it to start to increase you would need more heat to lift more dust into the atmosphere via wind. Unlike Earth, there doesn't appear to be a civilization of beings responsible for releasing greenhouse gases on Mars. Also, what's with all the rest of the increased temperature elevations around the solar system? Or are they wrong, like the increased temperatures on Mars? _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
This warming Mars nonsense underscores how much ignorance there is about science mostly thanks to politicized media coverage. The Martian atmosphere is composed of 95% CO2. Mars is a tiny planet that has about 12% the volume of the Earth and its surface pressure is about 10 hPa as opposed to 1013 hPa on Earth. How is this this system supposed to resemble Earth? "Similar warming" is something only a crackhead in a haze would take seriously. The Martian atmosphere gets cold enough at the winter pole to condense CO2. It develops a dry ice laden polar ice cap. When the atmosphere on Earth starts condensing at the poles maybe we can then make some comparisons of no particular significance.
As pointed out numerous times, dust on Mars has a massive impact on the radiative budget. Dust on Earth has a minor role. It helps when the gravity is only 1/3 that of Earth, micron scale dust particles can stay up for much longer even in the thinner atmosphere. And there is almost no water to condense around the dust and rain it out.
Nobody is adding more dust or CO2 to the Martian atmosphere so comparisons to the climate change problem on Earth are utter nonsense.
Mars warming is more of the talking point nonsense that denialists regurgitate without any thought. One day they say CO2 is not important and doesn't have enough infrared absorption bands, another day they claim all atmospheres on all planets are the same. Here is a little fact for the "CO2 does not have any effect on temperature" crowd: thanks to the dominance of CO2 on Venus its thermosphere is at around 300 Kelvin as compared to 1400 Kelvin on Earth. So much for the 15 micron band being unimportant crap.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:20 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Kingcoal wrote:
Increased albedo just happens randomly? I would think for it to start to increase you would need more heat to lift more dust into the atmosphere via wind. Unlike Earth, there doesn't appear to be a civilization of beings responsible for releasing greenhouse gases on Mars. Also, what's with all the rest of the increased temperature elevations around the solar system? Or are they wrong, like the increased temperatures on Mars?
You're correct in assuming that the only thing we have in common with all the other planets when it comes to climate is the sun.
Scientists have a lot of information about the sun and studies have confirmed by direct satellite measurements that find no rising trend in solar activity since 1978. Irradience has been steady since 1950.
Further more, we have gained a considerable amount of new scientific insight into our solar system over the last 30 years. It's not unreasonable to expect that we can now note changes with regards to other planatary climates that were previously unattainable.
As for Martian Wind:
Quote:
The Martian atmosphere, like that of Earth, has a general circulation, a wind pattern that occurs over the entire planet. Scientists have studied the global wind patterns of Mars by observing the motions of clouds and changes in the appearance of wind-blown dust and sand on the surface.
Global-scale winds occur on Mars as a result of the same process that produces such winds on Earth. The sun heats the atmosphere more at low latitudes than at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the warm air rises, and cooler air flows in along the surface to take its place. The warm air then travels toward the cooler regions at higher latitudes. At the higher latitudes, the cooler air sinks, then travels toward the equator.
On Mars, the condensation and evaporation of CO2 at the poles influence the general circulation. When winter begins, atmospheric CO2 condenses at the poles, and more CO2 flows toward the poles to take its place. When spring arrives, CO2 frost evaporates, and the resulting gas flows away from the poles.
Surface winds on Mars are mostly gentle, with typical speeds of about 6 miles (10 kilometers) per hour. Scientists have observed wind gusts as high as 55 miles (90 kilometers) per hour. However, the gusts exert much less force than do equally fast winds on Earth. The winds of Mars have less force because of the lower density of the Martian atmosphere.
Large dust storms begin when wind lifts dust into the atmosphere. The dust then absorbs sunlight, warming the air around it. As the warmed air rises, more winds occur, lifting still more dust. As a result, the storm becomes stronger.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Quote:
It only suggests that you can cherry pick any set of dates and data sets you want to come up with a short term argument that supports your case. It does not explain away the fact that the trend is continuing to go up and that natural climate variability can still trump CO2.
As well you know, climate models are better predictors over long periods of time. Once again, the observable evidence supports what the models are predicting.
Sorry but that's ridiculous. If we look at the last century there was a positive correlation of CO2 with temperature up until around 1930. From that point through until the mid-seventies there was a strong negative correlation...temperature fell whereas CO2 continued to rise. From 1975 through to 1999 there was again a positive correlation but from 1999 to now there has been an increasing negative correlation with CO2. The one thing you can say about correlation is if it is positive it doesn't necessarily prove causation but if it is negative it sure as hell proves that there is no causation.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
You're absolutely right that it runs on both sides of the fence - I guess I did come off a little strong. Maybe you and I can keep eachother's side of the argument honest
What I was trying to say, is that there's so much disinformation floating around that we have to be careful when we sound like we know what you're talking about, because if we mix our opinions in with the facts, it muddies the debate and makes it harder to make progress.
Since you mentioned it, Al Gore does say some, well, stupid *$#!. On the other hand, he also has some good points. Just because some of what a person says is inaccurate, doesn't determine the accuracy of another statment. It can give you a pretty good idea of whether the source is accurate, but it doesn't categorically invalidate, or prove anything they say.
If I say "all life evolved from base organic compounds," and then say "god created man in his own image 8000 years ago," obviously both statements can't be correct. If I then procede to say "the earth is round," one of my previous statments being invalid doens't mean the earth isn't round, and if I say "a tomato is a vegatable," it doesn't change the fact that according to the technical definition, it's a fruit.
Tsk tsk Don't "throw the baby out with the bathwater."
rockdoc123 wrote:
Quote:
is sensationalism at best, and at worst an attempt to make the reader jump to an inductive conclusion that "scientists agree that climate change is not from human activity."
Oh I see and the pro-anthropogenic global warming press and political pundits don't "gild the lily"? Do we need to point to the drivel coming out of Al Gore's movie....or for that matter the outlandish predictions released on numerous occassions by J. Hansen?
a wee bit of the pot calling the kettle black I'd say.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
This got me thinking about the discrepancies in what would otherwise be a close parallel tracking of CO2 and temperature.
Two things actually. The first being, is there any good data on the lag time between CO2 being introduced into the atmosphere and when it's greenhouse action has peaked in the past? I had the idea that we may be looking at "noise" in the last hundred years or so and trying to draw conclusions about long term effects based on it, and that's why we can't find anything that fits perfectly.
My second thought was, does anyone know how long it takes for CO2 to circulate to the antarctic and get deposited in what we pull out in ancient ice cores? Again, I'm thinking not having a firm grasp of the lag times involved might be the (or a) wrench in the works.
rockdoc123 wrote:
Sorry but that's ridiculous. If we look at the last century there was a positive correlation of CO2 with temperature up until around 1930. From that point through until the mid-seventies there was a strong negative correlation...temperature fell whereas CO2 continued to rise. From 1975 through to 1999 there was again a positive correlation but from 1999 to now there has been an increasing negative correlation with CO2. The one thing you can say about correlation is if it is positive it doesn't necessarily prove causation but if it is negative it sure as hell proves that there is no causation.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Mixing in the troposphere is on the timescale of weeks thanks to convection and baroclinic eddies. Convection is a process that occurs in a matter of hours and the middle latitude baroclinic instability evolves in under a week. Since the CO2 sinks at the surface are very slow it is well mixed (very low spatial gradients) up to around 80 km where it starts to be photolyzed. The borehole data spans centuries and on this timescale you can think of CO2 mixing as instantaneous. What you see is the evolution of sources and sinks.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Thanks! I've been mulling that over - very good to know.
dissident wrote:
Mixing in the troposphere is on the timescale of weeks thanks to convection and baroclinic eddies. Convection is a process that occurs in a matter of hours and the middle latitude baroclinic instability evolves in under a week. Since the CO2 sinks at the surface are very slow it is well mixed (very low spatial gradients) up to around 80 km where it starts to be photolyzed. The borehole data spans centuries and on this timescale you can think of CO2 mixing as instantaneous. What you see is the evolution of sources and sinks.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:52 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
rockdoc123 wrote:
Sorry but that's ridiculous. If we look at the last century there was a positive correlation of CO2 with temperature up until around 1930. From that point through until the mid-seventies there was a strong negative correlation...temperature fell whereas CO2 continued to rise. From 1975 through to 1999 there was again a positive correlation but from 1999 to now there has been an increasing negative correlation with CO2. The one thing you can say about correlation is if it is positive it doesn't necessarily prove causation but if it is negative it sure as hell proves that there is no causation.
Nothing rediculous about it, as I said, natural climate variability in the short term can either negate or amplify the effects of greenhouse gases. That's why climate change has to be viewed in terms of a long trend, which is up. What your describing is short term variations. Temperature data shows year-to-year variations independent of long term warming or cooling trends. Examples would be, volcanoes cause temporary cooling over several years while the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle lasts around 4 to 5 years. To leave out all the other factors of climate change and just suggest that CO2 is the only suspect forcing is rediculous. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6625 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: RIP: Man-Made Global Warming Fears 1988-2008
Why should I ("check out this video")?
The evidence of my own experience---my own senses---tells me that global warming is real.
You can go on claiming that 2 plus 2 equals 5 all you want, of course. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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