Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
dohboi wrote:
Peter Ward's Under a Green Sky is a good starting point for the background on the role of methane releases in earlier extinction events.
Otherwise, what part of "1000 times above background levels" don't you understand? (See article referenced in the first post. By the way Cid, did you find that independently? I noticed that I posted it on the Arctic Melt thread a few days before you did. Not looking for bragging rights, just wondering. Thanks for starting a thread on this most depressing of news.)
I have red a bit about methane input to GW.
My major issue is how fast such release could proceed?
Methane has a short half life in atmosphere (about 8 years perhaps).
So it is all about rate of release.
Concentration of methane in arctic water 1000 times above background is worrying, but it is still important to know more how widespread it is (as you have already pointed out) and about a rate of release of methane from this saturated water solution.
So high water concentration of methane is also a prerequisite for any significant releases to atmosphere to take place.
This high concentration may only be a product of some (hopefully temporary) interruption of sea currents in certain Arctic regions.
It may be premature to declare pending catastrophe base on presented data alone.
Scientists involved are certainly reasonably calm here and they are carrying on their investigations further.
It is interesting, what they will find out.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Cid_Yama wrote:
We are looking at a far larger release. We will be seeing billions die in the next 20 years. We are already in the worst case scenario. We are witnessing an extinction level event.
Look at the positive side. How many individual organisms get to "die by mass extinction event"? This kind of opportunity only comes around every few hundred million years! Its like winning the Lotto of Death!
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
I generally agree.
One point, though. You wrote, "Scientists involved are certainly reasonably calm."
Hansen and others have written on the perils of scientific reticence and alarm. If a scientist maintains a "calm" tone while revealing horrific data, many (such as yourself, perhaps) may interpret the tone to mean that the data is not, in fact, horrific. If on the other hand they insert an element of alarm, they may be seen as alarmist and emotional, which will bring some to question whether they are presenting data untainted by some emotionally charged agenda.
If you want alarmed scientists, check out Hansen or Flanagan. Environmentalists like Hare are certainly alarmed about this particular development, but they are exactly the ones that are likely to be accused of having an emotionally tinged agenda.
But please do keep searching for further confirmations or dis-confirmations about this and related stories.
As to speed, the troubling thing is how much faster everything seems to be happening than models from just a couple years ago were predicting.
To me, the speed issue doesn't really matter to the larger picture. If unstoppable runaway has started, it doesn't matter for the living systems of the earth if it takes years, decades, centuries, or even millennia. All of those time-frames are indistinguishably instant in the time frame of life on earth.
By the way, cid, you stated, "
The DOE scenario of a 4 GtC release as the result of a slope failure (no doubt imagining a clathrate mining accident) was talking about 3 degrees F immediately, followed by 30-60 degrees F over decades."
Do you have a link for that? Excuse me if I missed it in an earlier posting. Thanks.
In the very first post on that thread I pointed out the graphs on this LINK where you can see how the Earth has flipped back and forth through a temperature range that is very stable for 2 BILLION years.
As Dohboi pointed out someone claiming a 30 to 60 degree change is an astounding figure, given that the very long term history in the geological record has not passed beyon the 20 degrees F level and normally stays within an 18 degree F/ 10 degree C range between Hothouse and Icehouse.
That is not to say nobody has made such a claim, and indeed if they were referring specifically to a Polar location such a change is part of the geological record. Much confusion comes from people confusing a regional change with the planetary average changing. When the planetary average climbs 18F/10C to Hothouse conditions the equatorial regions barely feel a change but the Poles change by much more so that the WORLD average increase is 18F/10C. For the polar regions this can mean a change of 60F/33C, but ONLY for the polar region would this be the case.
Also because the Arctic forms a mediteranean basin the maritime climate effect would make things there very different than they would be in the Antarctic in a hothouse climate. The large body of water which is the Arctic Ocea coupled with the large lakes in Canada and the Hudson Bay area would all tend to moderate the climate of North America during a Hothouse climate period. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Unfortunately that link is a summery page on a global warming advocacy web site. That does not mean it is wrong or slanted, but I would much rather read the actual minutes of the meeting in question and make my own summery of the findings, simply to rule out bias by the sumerizer.
Heck it doesn't give a date, a location, nothing for you to be able to track down source documents from which the summery was drawn. And worst of all it gives a very genaric 30 degree F increase statement without stating if that is in reference to the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps or some other climate zone. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:13 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Tanada, the full report is available. Just google "gaskill global warming doe" and it should be the first thing that pops up. The meeting was held in June of 2004. I agree that some of the temperature estimates seem to be off. But I'm no expert.
One thing about the methane off of the Japanese coast that they are thinking of mining--if it is so unstable, why haven't the many earthquakes that that area has experienced over the last many years dislodged it? I suppose that mining could poke into some particularly sensitive area, but it is hard to believe that the methane down there is on some kind of trigger mechanism given all that tectonic activity. Thoughts?
(I still don't think it is prudent for them to go poking around down there.)
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
The earthquakes need to produce seabed slides to break up the clathrates and release the methane. I believe that these are not common so most of the clathrate distribution is not disturbed enough. There was a good piece at The Oil Drum which argued that the clathrates are not as extensive as being claimed by cornucopians. It makes sense since there has to be enough organic material to provide the methane (so no deep sea reserves) and there would not be any clathrates in unstable regions.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1747 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:17 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
The Dept of Energy, since 2000, has been working on a project to make mining of Methane Hydrates feasible.
Everyone here is quite aware of how risks are stated by government entities under the Bush Administration.
That is why the scenario of only a 4 GtC release as the result of a slope failure is questionable.
If anything the temperature impact is underestimated.
The report is on the possible mitigation of an accidental release.
Page 3 says their idea is to set the ocean on fire to convert a portion of the methane to CO2.
This would only work on a localized accidental release.
This does not even address an arctic shelf wide release due to global warming, which is what is starting to happen, certainly in an amount greater than 4 GtC.
There is no way to turn this thing off now that it has started. Our only hope had been to prevent the temperatures from warming to this point. It is now too late. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Swedish researchers working on an international mission have confirmed that methane, a potent greenhouse gas, has started to leak from the permafrost under the Siberian seabed, Dagens Nyheter reported on Saturday.
"The permafrost now has small holes. We have found elevated levels of methane above the water surface and even more in the water just below. It is obvious that the source is the seabed," Orjan Gustafsson, the Swedish leader of the International Siberian Shelf Study, told the newspaper.
Don't know how solid this confirmation is, or whether it adds anything new to the discussion. I'm not an expert. But I've gotta admit, this stuff scares the crap out of me.
Peak oil is our "Hail Mary" last chance with the climate. Anyone following this story and thread should welcome the peak and subsequent decline in emissions with open arms and fervent thanks. But it still might not be enough to prevent the worst.
Everyone keep your fingers crossed and pray to whatever gods you think might still be interested. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
N2 is chemically inert but there are processes which produce NOx but it is not clear how these will be affected by GW. It is unlikely there will be any major change in N2.
The O2 concentrations will be changed by biomass burning and changes in the ocean environment. If we killed all life on this planet then all of the O2 would disappear over thousands of years. But this is not a significant short term impact.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1263 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
coyote wrote:
Peak oil is our "Hail Mary" last chance with the climate. Anyone following this story and thread should welcome the peak and subsequent decline in emissions with open arms and fervent thanks.
Yep, with you 110% - I've been saying that for some years and they called me a loon (grin).
Another thing that Peak Oil has done is raise awareness of enviromental issues faster than prunes through an old grandmother. Five years ago this conversation simply wouldn't have happened. These things are worth thinking about...
JP _________________ I see a dark sail on the horizon
set under a black cloud that hides the sun.
Bring me my broadsword and clear understanding.
Bring me my cross of gold as a talisman.
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