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| How long before the grid goes down? |
| 1. 1 year until brownouts, down for good <5 years |
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13% |
[ 15 ] |
| 2. 3-5 years until brownouts, 10-20 years down for good. |
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28% |
[ 33 ] |
| 3. 5-10 years until brownouts, 20-30 years down for good. |
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23% |
[ 27 ] |
| 4. We might see some brownouts, but we'll always find a way to keep the lights on. |
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34% |
[ 40 ] |
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| Total Votes : 115 |
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| Author |
Message |
JustaGirl
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Apr 09, 2008
Posts: 136
Location: Petoria
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 Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 12:23 am Post subject: How long before the grid goes down? |
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I like polls so I figured I'd start one myself. Hopefully this one hasn't been done recently.
I think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today  |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3625
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 12:36 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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It is out in Louisiana, for one.
Entergy’s View Outages system
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe? |
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Consensi
Tar Sands
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Joined: May 28, 2008
Posts: 90
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 3:31 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| JustaGirl wrote: | | I think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today |
The Russians are already threatening Europe with oil and gas reductions. We are at war in Iraq and Afghanistan for oil. The Russians are determined to dominate Georgia and the Caspian oil supply. If the US and Russia start shooting at each other in the Black Sea things could develop very quickly. Iran/Israel is another matter. The hundredth monkey says rationing will soon be a reality. IMO, we will see worldwide energy rationing in two years.
A permanent collapse of the national grid is difficult to predict as there are too many variables. All things considered, I would guess 7 to 10 years - depending on who wins the oil wars.
Last edited by Consensi on Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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VMarcHart
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 1178
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| The electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M. Total collapse is not in my crystal ball, which has been wrong before. |
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DomusAlbion
Moderator
Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 1636
Location: Nez Perce Nation
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 7:50 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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It depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable.
Outside of America? They have electricity? 
_________________
"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock |
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NeoPeasant
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 1012
Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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We will adapt to increasingly unreliable power, which means among other things not making large investments in refrigerated foods, and relearning passive techniques to stay cool on hot days.
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The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning. |
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vilemerchant
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 07, 2008
Posts: 122
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| DomusAlbion wrote: | | Outside of America? They have electricity? |
Yep, more reliable electricity. And a lot live in actual free countries. |
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DomusAlbion
Moderator
Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 1636
Location: Nez Perce Nation
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| vilemerchant wrote: | | DomusAlbion wrote: | | Outside of America? They have electricity? |
Yep, more reliable electricity. And a lot live in actual free countries. |
Wow! I are smart but I did not know that. 
Thanks Vile, you must be looking forward to spring down under.
_________________
"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock |
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Consensi
Tar Sands
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Joined: May 28, 2008
Posts: 90
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| VMarcHart wrote: | | The electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M. |
Good point. O&M costs would definitely skyrocket as oil supply decreases and prices increase.
On a curious note, what caused the rolling brownouts in California that led to the recall of the Governor ? |
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1971
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:50 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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I love it that, as of right now, 1/3 of people have voted for, "we'll always find a way to keep the lights on."
That's great.
Even among the intelligentsia there is a 33% denial rate.
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group. |
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PonyBoy78
Tar Sands
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Joined: Aug 19, 2004
Posts: 85
Location: Austin (but moving east soon)
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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I tend to think that we'll do whatever is necessary to keep the grid up, but that it won't work in the long term.
I'll take a shot in the dark here (pardon the pun)..
> Troubles begin: within 10 years
> Grid pretty much down more than 75% of the time: within 20 years |
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 755
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| Consensi wrote: | | On a curious note, what caused the rolling brownouts in California that led to the recall of the Governor ? |
Well, it wasn't a lack of generating capacity. Here we are 8 years later, very little increased capacity, and California still uses about the same amount of electricity as it did in 2000. Wikipedia pretty well sums up the causes of those blackouts/brownouts: California's famous blackouts
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"When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine |
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JustaGirl
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Apr 09, 2008
Posts: 136
Location: Petoria
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| DomusAlbion wrote: | | It depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable. Outside of America? They have electricity? |
I know i'm being an ignorant American  |
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DomusAlbion
Moderator
Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 1636
Location: Nez Perce Nation
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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| JustaGirl wrote: | | I know i'm being an ignorant American |
Hey, I wasn't poking fun at you. Just being a little silly this morning.
_________________
"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock |
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JustaGirl
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Apr 09, 2008
Posts: 136
Location: Petoria
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: How long before the grid goes down? |
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Due to the hurricane? I suppose enough hurricanes could damage things there enough to keep power out for good. |
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