Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Sep 30, 2004 Posts: 975 Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2005 5:19 am Post subject: 'Limits to Growth: The 30-year update' D.Meadows, et al
Limits to Growth
The 30 Year update
By
Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis Meadows
Published by Earthscan in the UK, 2005
Summary
Essential reading for Peakers: puts a dynamic system in perspective. Clear, accessible and reader-friendly.
Review
Limits to Growth (1972) was a seminal work, sponsored by the Club of Rome. It has been updated twice, first in 1992: Beyond the Limits, and in 2002 with LTG: The 30 year update.
The LTG team take a systems dynamics and computer modelling approach to the global ecosystem, the way it is going, and the constraints upon it. Any computer model, especially of a complex system like our planet, is going to be a simplification. This is an advantage, LTG cuts away the clutter, making it very clear that you cannot have “infinite growth in a finite system”.
The core of the book models different scenarios of how the future might turn out, starting off with Scenario 0: a kind of calibration run for their World3 computer model, which has no limits. Then they start bringing in factors such as population growth, food per person, pollution, and more abstract concepts such as human welfare. The scenarios model both positive and negative impacts, such as agricultural erosion, or increasing conservation. Interventions also have “lag effects”: delays happen before their effects are visible.
But these scenarios do not start till page 151. The previous pages carefully explain their approach, what they can and can’t model, how lag factors effect results, and many other factors, including what they don’t model, such as resource wars or corruption.
Quote:
“World3 is a model designed to explore the behaviour modes of an interconnected, nonlinear, delayed-response, limited system. It is not intended to spell out an exact prediction for the future or a detailed plan of action.” (Page 252)
Each scenario shows 3 graphs over time, which model:
The State of the World: resources, food, population, pollution and industrial output.
Material standard of living: Life expectancy, consumer goods, services and food per person,
Human Welfare and Footprint, which measures the general welfare level of the average person across the globe - “quality of life” – both material and spiritual, and their Ecological Footprint: how much of the earth’s resources they are taking up.
The authors have run many scenarios over the past 30 years; once you exceed your ecological thresholds, the limits of the title, the most likely result is “Overshoot and Collapse”. The previous two books warned that this was about to happen; The 30 Year Update documents the process actually happening; since the 1992 update we have exceeded the world's Carrying Capacity, overshooting by some 20% in 1999 (page xv).
Unlike many “think-tanks” the LTG team seem fully aware of the oil and natural gas peaks. Although this is not central to their thesis, as - if we miss one limit, there’ll be another along in a moment, they do factor in diminishing nonrenewable energy into their scenarios.
The scenarios they work through, even with prompt global action, look daunting; I feel that inertia, denial, war, corruption and media misinformation make timely remedial action even less likely. We've seen the footdragging over Climate Change. The mythical Greek prophet Cassandra was fated to always foretell accurately and not be believed. As we have seen from the response to the previous two books, which have been widely misrepresented as “failed prophecies”, rather than wake-up calls for collective action, those who don’t want to listen, will not.
The book itself suggests that although transition will be difficult, life in a sustainable society will be, in many ways, better than the one we currently live in.
The LTG team (minus the late Donella Meadows, whose contribution to ecological awareness is certainly a fitting memorial) are planning the 40-year update for 2012.
I hope it’s not a single page that says: “We told you so”.
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2005 9:40 pm Post subject:
Clearly looking to avoid another "they predicted this and it became false" lie, like what was thrown on their first book, the authors take a long time, openly and earnestly explaining their model and what it can and cannot do.
In the interests of that, I will do the same and point out that only one scenario (scenario 1) uses a realistic estimate of our non-renewable resources. All the others use double what Campbell et. al. would predict. (Except Scenario 0, the economist's wet dream scenario). Their model also has no war, corruption, no disparity between the rich and the poor. The fact that they can get their doubled-resources model to become sustainable doesn't at all mean we can get ours to. (Nor would the authors want you to draw such a conclusion). _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
I found it somewhat irritating that they kept on saying "this is a theoretical model", and also would like to have seen another scenario based on the final one but with half the available nonrenewable resource.
I would have expected a 30-year update book to indicate some kind of correlation between what has happened in the last 30 years compared against their original models.
Crucially the book points out that depopulation or more efficient use of resource alone will not do; we must do both.
http://www.peakoil.com/reviews.html _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
I definitely agree with the thesis of the book which is: Slow down! Stop, before we all go over the cliff! We may be going over anyway! Why can't we get the message? It's hard to stop the runaway bus we're on as long as we have the energy to keep it going. Who, besides me and a few eco-freaks, is going to shrink their lifestyle voluntarily? They ran these models in the 70's and almost everything they said is coming true. We were able to find more oil and increase phantom carrying capacity for a while, but we're up against it now. Is it time to slow down? I can see the edge of the cliff. It's around the year 2008!
Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 892 Location: San Francisco, California
Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 2:20 pm Post subject: Review of Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
Change your ways or face the consequences: that is the message from Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows. Over thirty years after the publication of Limits to Growth, the authors have revised and updated their World3 model, showing convincing evidence that humanity is heading for catastrophe.
What are the dire consequences that we face if we do not change course? We are already in overshoot, claim the authors. The human ecological footprint, the land and sea area used to sustain humanity through food production, industry, and shelter, exceeds the Earth's ability to support us. In the long term, because we are overwhelming the sources of goods and the sinks for our wastes, we are using more than one Earth and bequeathing the mess to our children.
Central to the thesis of LTG+30 is the idea of sources and sinks: because the Earth contains finite resources and can absorb a limited amount of pollution, human activity can grow beyond these limits. The authors contend that it already has. The earth contains a finite quantity of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and minerals: these are non-renewable resources that are depleted eventually. Humanity can also use up renewable resources like forests faster than those forests can grow back. The authors introduce the idea of regenerative capacity: the amount of a renewable resource that we can use without depleting it. We can also pollute the planet faster than the Earth's sinks can absorb and neutralize them. If we do not reduce our pollution, we contaminate our water, air, and topsoil.
In order to avoid overwhelming the Earth's sources and sinks, we must limit our use of renewables to match the planet's regenerative capacity. We must also substitute renewables for nonrenewable resources. Although this does not mean that we give up all nonrenewables right away, we should not deplete them faster than we can develop alternatives. And we must limit our pollution to a quantity below what the Earth can assimilate (254).
The authors provide eleven models (like most computer programmers, they begin counting at zero), showing possible scenarios for humanity's future through 2100. A common thread in many of these scenarios is overshoot and collapse. As population, food production, industry, and pollution grow unabated, Mother Earth strikes back, reducing food production, available goods, and overall human welfare.
But Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are not doomers. What distinguishes the authors from the "die off" crowd is their conviction that another kind of future is possible. If we learn to live within the Earth's limits, the authors claim, we can reach sustainability and avoid catastrophe.
Sustainability does not require a limit to creativity, technological progress, or human happiness. What it does require, however, is a change in the way relate to stuff: we must change our consumption patterns and reduce our production of waste. If we are to avoid collapse, the authors argue, we must limit population and industrial output, abate pollution, conserve both renewable and non-renewable resources, and increase land yield while protecting soil quality (244).
The result? In the rosy scenario 9, we avoid catastrophic die off, limit and eventually reduce the human ecological footprint, and sustain human welfare (245). How do we acheive this utopia? The authors give vague suggestions and tools that people may be able to use to get from here to there: the book's prescriptive portion may well be its weakest chapter. They assert that we should, "Extend the planning horizon," in government and industry, focusing on long term success over decades as opposed to mere months or quarters. This change in the ways of leadership seems unlikely given the entrenched habits of those in power.
So how do we get to a sustainable society? Although the authors do not offer specific solutions that government and corporations can adopt, they do provide, "Tools for the transition to sustainability" (265). We facilitate this process through, "Visioning," "Networking," "Truth-telling," "Learning," and "Loving." This vague description of useful attitudes and habits leaves the reader feeling empty, wishing for more specific ideas for what managers, public servants, and citizens can do. Nonetheless, because the authors have done such an excellent job of explaining the problems we face, they can be forgiven their lack of detail in the chapter on solutions.
Having shown where we are today and where we might be going, Meadows, Randers, and Meadows leave the task of fixing overshoot to the next generation (Donella Meadows died in 2001). Coming up with creative ways to preserve human welfare while limiting our resource use is an even larger challenge than assessing and understanding the problem. Are we up to the task?
Work Cited
Meadows, Dennis, Meadows, Donella, and Randers, Jorgen. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. White River Junction, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.
(the World3 model of the book is one of the sample models of the software)
This allows you to change around assumptions and policies to your heart's content. It's useful to have the book at hand to avoid falling into depression, because otherwise you might be tempted to think there are no sustainable solutions (they aren't easy to find). I only miss a few more explanations on how the model works, especially regarding to new policies or technologies one could introduce.
I don't know about the 30-year update (I will get it soon from Amazon), but the original has a specific set of policies needed to achieve sustainability. The main concepts were:
1) Population control
2) Controlling manufacturing that uses non-renewable resources
3) Polution control
4) Making sustainable food a priority
All quite obvious when you think about it, really. However, they point out that the first two are a clear prerequisite for any kind of sustainable society, in any circumstances, including access to the most far-fetched technology.
And, of course, these policies could be achieved in different ways, some successful, some partially successful, and some even counterproductive.
If anybody else wants to share their World3 experiments here, I'd be very interested.
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