Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:28 am Post subject: Peak Oil is a SCAM!!!
Saudi officials announced on April 28 that the Kingdom's estimate of recoverable reserves had nearly quintupled! (The article below says "tripled," but the math isn't that hard to do.)
WASHINGTON, 29 April 2004 — Officials from Saudi Arabia’s oil industry and the international petroleum organizations shocked a gathering of foreign policy experts in Washington yesterday with an announcement that the Kingdom’s previous estimate of 261 billion barrels of recoverable petroleum has now more than tripled, to 1.2 trillion barrels.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s key oil and finance ministers assured the audience — which included US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan — that the Kingdom has the capability to quickly double its oil output and sustain such a production surge for as long as 50 years.
[...]
“Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be very optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we are using new technologies to extract even more oil from existing reserves,” the minister said.
Naimi said Saudi Arabia is committed to sustaining the average price of $25 per barrel set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. He said prices should never increase to more than $28 or drop under $22.
[...]
“Saudi Arabia’s vast oil reserves are certainly there,” Naimi added. “None of these reserves requires advanced recovery techniques. We have more than sufficient reserves to increase output. If required, we can increase output from 10.5 million barrels a day to 12 - 15 million barrels a day. And we can sustain this increased output for 50 years or more. There will be no shortage of oil for the next 50 years. Perhaps much longer.”
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:34 am Post subject: More Info
Note that the oil reserves claimed by Saudi Arabia alone (1.2 trillion barrels) exceed what the Peakers claim are the total recoverable oil reserves for the entire planet. Let's pause here for a minute and think about the significance of that: one tiny patch of land, accounting for less than than 1/2 of 1% of the earth's total surface area, potentially contains more oil that the 'Peak' pitchmen claim the entire planet has to offer! Is there not something clearly wrong with this picture?
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:36 am Post subject: More News from Mexico!!!!
Three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known crude oil reserves. Luis RamĂrez Corzo, Pemex's director for exploration, told EL UNIVERSAL that on a "conservative" estimate, almost 54 billion barrels lie underneath the oilfields. That would take Mexico's reserves to 102 billion barrels, more than the United Arab Emirates (which has reserves of 97.8 billion barrels), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (89.7 billion), and almost as much as Iraq (112.5 billion). The official also said the discovery could enable Pemex to increase Mexico's oil production from the current level of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd. Saudi Arabia currently produces 7.5 million bpd, while Russia's oil output is 7.4 million bpd. RamĂrez Corzo said the exploration, at an investment of US 4.6 billion, led to the identification of seven separate blocks rich in oil and natural gas. The most promising blocks are under water in the Gulf of Mexico, thought to contain around 45 billion barrels.
(http://www.el-universal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=6110&tabla=miami)
No new fields over 500 million barrels? How about the 45 billion new barrels sitting in the Gulf of Mexico, right in our own backyard? Isn't that just a tiny bit more than is "consumed in a year"?
Of course, the oil will not be easy to extract. Mexico will need some help, since it "lacks the technology for deep water pumping." And there is another problem as well: "there are territoriality issues with the United States and Cuba over the fields." In order to bring the oil to market, Mexico will need the cooperation of both the United States government and the major players in the oil industry. In other words, the newly discovered oil isn't going to be extracted any time soon, which is why the American media, and the 'Peak' crowd, haven't bothered to acknowledge its existence. (http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=15958)
It will no doubt be determined that it is not economically feasible to extract the oil in the Gulf of Mexico. After all, Reuters has reported that, "Oil from deep-water reserves could cost $4 a barrel to extract, nearly double the cost of oil from shallow water." And we certainly can't expect any responsible corporation to shell out $4 a barrel to extract something that they can then trade for $50 a barrel, can we?
Saudi officials announced on April 28 that the Kingdom's estimate of recoverable reserves had nearly quintupled! (The article below says "tripled," but the math isn't that hard to do.)
WASHINGTON, 29 April 2004 — Officials from Saudi Arabia’s oil industry and the international petroleum organizations shocked a gathering of foreign policy experts in Washington yesterday with an announcement that the Kingdom’s previous estimate of 261 billion barrels of recoverable petroleum has now more than tripled, to 1.2 trillion barrels.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s key oil and finance ministers assured the audience — which included US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan — that the Kingdom has the capability to quickly double its oil output and sustain such a production surge for as long as 50 years.
[...]
“Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be very optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we are using new technologies to extract even more oil from existing reserves,” the minister said.
Naimi said Saudi Arabia is committed to sustaining the average price of $25 per barrel set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. He said prices should never increase to more than $28 or drop under $22.
[...]
“Saudi Arabia’s vast oil reserves are certainly there,” Naimi added. “None of these reserves requires advanced recovery techniques. We have more than sufficient reserves to increase output. If required, we can increase output from 10.5 million barrels a day to 12 - 15 million barrels a day. And we can sustain this increased output for 50 years or more. There will be no shortage of oil for the next 50 years. Perhaps much longer.”
Even if your figures and calculations are true, it won't disprove peak oil, but merely challenge the generally accepted date of peak. If you have a limited ,non-renewable resource, you ARE going to run out no matter what, and a peak in production and supply is inevitable. Your source is also a bit questionable, and the Saudis have been known to overstate reserves. _________________ easy come, easy go.
Life's but a dream.
Joined: Jul 21, 2004 Posts: 1248 Location: Suburban tar sands
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:27 am Post subject:
There are bureaucrats in every country whose job it is to make wild, extravagent claims in order to boost foreign investment, tourism, whatever. Believe them if you like. Do you want to buy some nice waterfront property in Florida?
Irrelevant. And very questionable figures regarding oil
quantities too.
So we're supposed to be believe some wild conspiracy
theory about a 'NWO' (New World Order) shadow government
somehow engineering the PO crises as a form of population
control? Does anyone consider this a more rational explanation
than PO? Riiight. Ever heard of Occam's razor?
Even if these figures regarding oil are true (disregarding
the crackpot NWO stuff) they only defer PO, and make it
worse when it does arrive.
Three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known crude oil reserves.
You have to look at the context of those statements. These statements were issued just before the elections. The same thing happened about 8 years ago. It is jusdt BS as the reserves were never added. Instead Pemex had to cut 60% of its reserves as they did not exist.
Pemex is indeed now starting to drill in deep waters. The first prospect yielded 200 mb oil in place. That means barely 100 mb recoverable. If there was so much oil to be found there they would surely have picked a better prospect.
And if you have any doubt about the state of Mexico's oilfields, have a look at page 6 of their yearly report. All pemex's fields are in decline posting decline rates of 10% or more exept for Cantarell. And Cantarell is going to decline soon.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:41 am Post subject:
Methinks the Saudi Princes have been mixing too much Afghani hashish with their hookah tobacco. While it might add a somewhat piquant flavor, it also has this annoying habit of making people hallucinate like crazy.
If these reports are true, good for us in the short run but Malthus still gets us if we don't watch out, as in climate change and water shortages, and possibly a plague or two for good measure.
If they're false, Malthus gets us sooner.
If we start building wind & nuclear and improving fuel efficiency, we still benefit no matter what.
If we don't, and oil peaks, we're screwed.
You takes your choice, and you takes your chances.
Joined: Jul 21, 2004 Posts: 327 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 5:20 am Post subject:
Also, where did the Saudis come up with such a number when Ghawar, which is barely making it with a high water-cut, is still the largest oil field on Earth? Did they suddenly discover 15 new Ghawars (the URR For Ghawar was 82 billion barrels)? The URR for the whole Arabian-Iranian oil megaprovince is close to 650 billion barrels. Other countries in this megaprovince are not reporting such "revisions."
So, go forth and short lots of futures contracts on oil. You should make a great deal of money, if your reports are correct. You can even afford to create your own website to inform us that you told us so! Wouldn't that be fun?
Doesn't OPEC determine how much oil can be exported based on how much are in there reserves? So it would be to to their advantage to over estimate the amount of oil they have...no? They're full of crap. Why don't we just cut to the chase, invade them now and find out for ourselfs? (joking)
If true this does nothing to disprove peak oil and simply buys more time for us to do nothing a little longer.
I just read that article and it sounds like a pure crock of crap. This is all about population control? LOL!! I was hoping for some pinch of hope now i think this guy is some conspiracy quack.
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