If there is massive oil left to be found, where?

Whitecrab

Based on what I've been reading, the last possible areas of REAL growth are:

1) Half of Iraq's not been looked over, so there's plenty of potential there.
2) Deep-sea drilling (with great great cost).
3) Maybe maybe Saudi Arabia?
4) Expansion of Alberta Tar sands, and perhaps they could finally get shale oil going.

Can anyone expand on these points (with data, perhaps) or provide more growth areas I've missed?

I don't think these will save us from the peak, no, but it helps you look savvy when you can respond to someone's "we'll find more oil though!" protests by saying exactly what's left untested. And of those, which routes will definately cost a lot more, and which are politically unstable. Twisted Evil

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pip · Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:19 am Post subject:

Why has half of Iraq not been looked over? That's hard to believe.

Doctor Doom · Guest

You forgot Venezuela's very large endowment of heavy crude, much of which can be economically extracted even today (and that's also energy ROI positive).

As for Iraq and the ME generally not being as well explored, that is true, and the reason is that for decades they have had way more production capacity than world demand, and the cheapest production costs in the world, so there has been no incentive to look for any more oil.

Finally, there is the possibility of squeezing more out of existing fields. We are getting 30-45% of the oil out of current finds, the rest just stays in the ground because we don't have the technology to recover it quickly enough. There are people testing things like seeding fields with bacteria that will break down heavier oils and allow them to flow more freely, possibly boosting recovery by another 5-10%

The best argument against "we'll find more" is that the consequences of being wrong are too serious to just "gamble". Ask them, would they fly across an ocean on an airplane that had a broken fuel gauge where the pilot bangs on the wing tanks and says it "sounds like there's probably emough fuel" to make it to the destination?

Aaron · Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:48 am Post subject:

My geologist seismic buddy tells me the sweet-spots in SA are swiss cheese. They have drilled them like crazy.

It's the less attractive sites that have had little attention, largely because experts feel that chances of significant finds in these unexplored regions are low.

I understand that Iraq was just poorly managed and we may find some undiscovered fields there.
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Whitecrab · Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2004 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: More oil

hymalaia · Tar Sands Joined: May 13, 2004 Posts: 78

Thinking maybe we should throw Alaska into this. Does anyone have any idea what's lurking underneath the arctic wildlife refuge?

Of course there is the question of weather or not we have moral authority to drill there. But that seems like a topic for another thread..

Chicagoan · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 315

What about Antarctica? I know there is a treaty, but if people become desporate enough? Did it ever have the potential for oil formation in the geological past?

gg3 · Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2004 5:50 pm Post subject:

I think it's fair to include Alaska and other ecologically sensitive areas in the mix. All-factors-in, the costs of minimizing the ecological impacts of extraction are known and predictable. The risk issues of Middle Eastern extraction involve potentially very high costs that could escalate in a nonlinear manner.

Good analogy about flying across the ocean in a plane with a broken fuel gauge.

Ender

JLK · Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2004 9:23 am Post subject:

1. Arctic offshore
2. Central Siberia
3. South China Sea
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lowem · Posted: Sun Jul 25, 2004 9:29 pm Post subject:

Not to forget that a discovery of 100 billion barrels will move the peak by maybe a year. That's umm, maybe 2 Ghawar's?
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RIPSmithianEconomics · Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 2:07 am Post subject:

smiley · Fission Joined: Apr 16, 2004 Posts: 2146 Location: Europe

Ehmm.... Mars?

No seriously over 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil was discovered before 1950. That was well before the 3d seismic. The same applies to Iraq.

If you look at the following maps of the region you can see why. All the oilfields in the region are part of one geological superstructure. Thats why all the oilfields in Iran run in the same parallel direction. They are not that hard to find.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_major_oilfields78.jpg

http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/area3map_sm.jpg

http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/Assets/outlineimages/iraq_oilfields_1992.jpg

If you look at the oil field distribution the chance of finding a very large oilfield outside the explored region is very slim.

It also shows that expat some smaller fields all the Iraqi oilfield are currently in production.

Iraq still has a large production potential, but it's never going to be a second Saudi Arabia. It is never going to produce 10 mbd, not even half of that.

JackBob

JackBob