THE Avian (Bird) Flu Thread Part 2 (merged)

jacks · Guest

anybody come across any links to the "Asian Bird Flu" ? I was reading about this in the mpls star tribune and it sounds pretty heavy. Projected 30,000 cases/deaths in mn alone, 1.7 mil in the us and 177mil worldwide!
evidently the us is already seeking vaccine, i think they can get or do have 2 million doses at this time.
I would really like to learn more about this, as well as the new case of mad cow in the us. I recomment reading The Coming Plague by Laurie Garriet if you are interested in health issues.

jesus_of_suburbia · Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:33 am Post subject:

I thought they had not developed a vaccine for avian flu.
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Grimnir · Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 5:04 pm Post subject:

The death rate is probably overstated since people who don't get sick enough to need medical attention are never recorded. But it'll still be bad if it starts to spread.

stu

I know this is possibly the wrong forum to start this thread in because it's not oil related but I thought "what the hell".

If the experts are to be believed then we are standing on the verge of a pandemic of avian flu. Considering that the death rate amongst infected people is 75% this is set to be one killer virus.

There is an outbreak of a new strain of flu every 30 years on average so considering that the last one was in the 1960's it is safe to say that we are overdue a new one. The reason I started this thread is so that I could start a discussion on ways to plan for this because the near future looks pretty scary.

There is no immediately available vaccine and TENS of millions of people are set to be wiped out by this. The only guaranteed method of survival that I can think of is to go camping in the countryside for a few weeks or just lock myself in my bedroom because at least I'll be virtually guaranteed to keep away from human contact.

Any ideas? Or am I just over-reacting?

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4034

There's not a single case of contagion from human to human. Until that happens, I think you are overreacting.

stu · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:06 am Post subject:

Aaron · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:25 am Post subject:

JayHMorrison

stu

gg3 · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 7:17 am Post subject:

Hiding out for a few weeks isn't enough; the flu will come through in waves and there will be individuals around who are contagious but asymptomatic.

Change your job to something you can do from home, or at least avoid work that requires you to be in frequent close contact with others in the workplace. Same case should apply to your partner if any.

Right now get in the habit of washing hands frequently: after using the bathroom, before preparing food and/or eating, after being in public places, and when you come home at the end of the day. Learn how to avoid touching your face at any time when you are out in a public place; the casual reaching up and scratching an itch at the corner of your eye can be a path for viruses to get in.

Avoid crowded places. Go to the grocery store early or late when few others are present. Find ways to minimize use of public transit (this is not politically correct around here but what the hey) or at least not be on during peak hours.

Obtain a decent respirator and eye goggles (virus particles can get in via the eyes).

Try to get a scrip for Tamiflu and keep a supply on hand. Do not waste it on anything less than the Big One. You will probably have to renew it every year because the stuff does not keep forever.

The countryside may or may not be any better than the city in terms of risk.

stu · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 7:32 am Post subject:

I guess eating healthy things to boost my immune system is also a priority. More food and drink that contains Vitamin C for example.

lorenzo · Fission Joined: Jan 01, 2005 Posts: 2163

Yesterday I heard on France Inter that the virus has already spread to cats, pigs and monkeys (that is pig to pig and cat to cat, etc...) So it's only a matter of time before it becomes human to human. Not a question of if, but when. Really scary.

I know that my country has bought 10 million generic flu stoppers which won't kill off this particular virus, but it will slow down the speed at which it spreads, winning us time to survive until a specific vaccine is available.
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Pops · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 8:21 am Post subject:

This is a CDC post from the promedmail site, good background and general info updated almost daily: HERE

Recent research findings give further cause for concern. New research suggests that H5 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) for mammals than earlier H5 viruses and are becoming more widespread in birds in the region. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 are now shedding more virus for longer periods of time without showing any symptoms of illness. This has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and, possibly, to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5 infection among pigs in China and H5 infection in felines (experimental infection in house cats in the Netherlands and isolation of H5N1 viruses from infected tigers and leopards in Thailand), suggesting that cats could host or transmit the infection.
These finding are particularly worrisome in light of the fact that reassortment of avian influenza genomes is most likely to occur when these viruses demonstrate a capacity to infect multiple species, as is now the case in Asia.
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Also Clinical Analysis

And WHO Site
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This makes me think that gg3 is correct in saying the country may be no better than town. If all mammals are easily infected as well as birds it shoots down the theory that you are safe at home.

Self-imposed quarantine if the virus were to become really widespread with a high infection and mortality rate would be your only chance.

Stock up the pantry! Don't forget bleach and alcohol.

Shoot the cat and flush Tweety!
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RIPSmithianEconomics · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 12:44 pm Post subject:

What is it that I hate about farm animals? Is it their amazing tendency to breed out of season when you least expect it? Is it the mountains of crap they make? No, it's their ability to acquire diseases and parasites. You can wash them one day and they'll be full of ticks the next.

Back in about 2001 we had problems with Foot And Mouth. Luckily we didn't have any problems in my local area, but we had to recheck our on-farm hygiene and disease management. The problem is that in the summer most farms let each other's animals meet on moors and so on, and a spread of a contagion to just one farm could be disastrous. How is bird flu spread from man to bird (I'm not concerned about human to human contact).
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All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
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Shannymara · Master Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5395 Location: Oklahoma