Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed Jun 30, 2004 11:35 am Post subject: Extraction rate data.
You hear a lot of talk about how technology has increased the rate at which we can extract oil from a reservoir. But i've never seen a quantification of how much this has changed.
The gaussian extrapolation really assumes that the extraction profile for oil wells is not systematically varied through time. But I guess we know that this is happening. This does mean that the overall distribution will not be gaussian, but instead, be skewed to some degree, resulting in a higher peak, and steeper depletion.
The 1850 trillion dollar question is: how much? So if anyone has any quantitive data about the rate of change of the depletion profile over time, it love to know about it. Thanks.
Joined: Sep 26, 2004 Posts: 40 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2004 8:56 pm Post subject:
I've really got no idea BUTTTT..............
Take a look at http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/reps/commttee/R6228.pdf
This link shows on page 17, Dr. Neil Williams, Chief Executive Officer – Geoscience Australia advising the House of Reps that we have very little oil left and it is declining fast... 11 to 4 years since 2000 I think!! A cliff in oil depletion in anyone's book.
The most worrying is the giant Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia peaked in 1981 www.gregcroft.com/ghawar.ivnu and it is widely believed that as a result Saudi Arabia has Peaked and if so axiomatically so too the world.. This view of a Saudi Peak = World Peak is promulgated by Matthew Simmons founder and CEO of Simmons and Company International.
The really worrying issue is that modern "Super Straw" technology now employed universally by the oil industry to extract oil more efficiently has masked Peak, which in current thought shows the half way point in oil stocks.
Australia does not fit this more traditional model and nor the North Sea nor does Ghawar, the slow ride to depletion still talked about will no doubt be a giant slippery slide not a roll a coaster!
To get attention I opine that the first Campbell report in 85 (Petroconsultants) saying the world would Peak in 2000 was right and that we are NOW on an undulating plateau.
We may only have 40% of oil left but most people still think we have 50% or more to go!!!
If you artificially keep production up in major fields such as Ghawar and then add new smaller fields it looks as though the world is still expanding production (true) and therefore must have over half left (may well be untrue). The decline when sets in is not a gradual decline but a short sharp fall as here in Australia.
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