Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:20 pm Post subject: Learning about Peak Oil
Greetings all,
I have been reading this forum for a few days now and it seems most of you are intelligent, good people. This is a great place and kudos to those that keep it that way.
My name is Kodi, and my life is forever changed. Exactly a week ago, I decided to do research on the "Peak Oil Theory." I've heard of this before, but knew nothing about it. At another forum I frequent (camaroz28.com), it was briefly mentioned in a post, sparking my interest. I performed a simple google search, and started at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. What I began to read caught me so far off guard, I barely could let the words sink in.
First off, let me start by saying that I'm not a "conspiracy theorist" or "doomsayer." As a matter of fact, I'm usually the person to debunk conspiracy theories (such as us not going to the moon, etc.) So I'm not one to easily fall into believing just anything. However, I always knew that fossil fuels are a finite resource, I just never, ever gave thought to what would happen once supply began to dwindle.
Which leads me back to PO. I've spent my days and nights reading about it. Deeply getting into it, almost obsessed. What I've read (including the mind blowing report by M. King Hubbert in 1956) has completely changed my outlook on life. This new, mind bending knowledge is akin to Neo finding out his entire life was all a computer program in "The Matrix." I strongly believe that PO is a very real, and very serious problem. What I read at first frightend me so much that I couldn't sleep for two nights! My girlfriend was even concerned. When she asked what I was reading and why I was up all night reading, I told her: "I've just dived into the scariest information I've ever seen." This was after some consideration on my part to even tell her about PO. After some detailed explination, she read the above mentioned website. She was, of course, completely shocked. We are both college educated and fairly intelligent, so this seems to make perfect logical sense.
Anyway, I understand that PO is not about running out of oil. It really has nothing to do with that. It seems clear we have enough oil to last roughly 50+yrs. However, PO is about when our production levels "peak" and begin a terminal decline as the world's demand continually increases. This will (logically) cause oil prices to skyrocket to levels never seen before. This continual increase will have absolutely horrible and catastrophic effects on the US and world economy. Its not that the grid will shut down anytime soon or that the world will suddenly end, its about how common "middle class" people such as myself will not be able to afford aspects of this life that we all take for granted. I can't afford $10/gal for gas. Also, the price at the pump is the least of my concerns. Oil is deeply embedded into EVERY aspect of modern society. This crunch will effect everything and everyone. Its terrifying if you really think into it as I have. I live in Las Vegas, and I can't even look at the strip now without thinking about this.
Wow, just wow. Its difficult to live your everyday, normal life when you know such powerful things such as PO. I just feel like my eyes have been opened. PO is real. Those who say we'll "invent" ourselves out of this have to much faith in technology. I don't think the world will end, but changes will be made. By the time the media lets the public know PO is true and real, it may be far to late. Alternatives are the way to go, but it will take decades to restructure our entire system to them. And I'm not even going to get into the fact that alternatives only deliever a fraction of the energy oil does and probably won't improve any time soon to where we need them to be.
So much to say...
Nontheless, great site. I look foward to posting here. It was nice to read human responses to this after spending days and nights reading reports and shuffling over data.
Matt's "Life After The Oil Crash" is a bit extreme. I recommend reading - start with Kenneth Defeyes who is not so much doom and gloom as many of the other Peakniks.
And keep the Matrix reference to yourself, though loosely appropriate it doesn't do much for our credibility.
Also, be very careful with the posters here and the stuff they post. Many peak oilers are seriously wacked out knuckleheads. Some really smart wacked out knuckleheads for sure, but wacked out knuckleheads nonetheless. Don't lend credibility to kooks like Mike Ruppert and his ilk. Unfortunately the subject seems to attract end-of-the-world wack jobs and conspiracy looneys as well as back-to-nature all industry is evil types.
Last edited by PhilBiker on Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:31 pm Post subject:
PhilBiker wrote:
Welcome aboard.
Matt's "Life After The Oil Crash" is a bit extreme. I recommend reading - start with Kenneth Defeyes who is not so much doom and gloom as many of the other Peakniks.
And keep the Matrix reference to yourself, though loosely appropriate it doesn't do much for our credibility.
I agree. Its actually the first time I've used the comparison. I apologize for sounding extreme. Also, Matt's site is a bit extreme. I must say that it forced me into heavier research because I didn't believe the "doom'n gloom" he pointed out. And thanks for the reference, although I've already spent considerable time at that site.
There is a wealth of information on this site ranging from the best assault rifle under $250 (from the doomer’s) to pseudo-scientific just-in-time PO cures (from the flat earther’s).
Read on … _________________ If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 292 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:53 pm Post subject:
I'd say there are plenty of doomers here too. But to be sure: If oil prices rise, and they will, and economies crumble, which they will, and unemployment skyrockets, and it will, some bad stuff can happen.
Until I envision a STABLE world WITHOUT economic growth, I'll have trouble discounting even the worst doom-and-gloom scenario outright.
Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:57 pm Post subject:
Nano wrote:
I'd say there are plenty of doomers here too. But to be sure: If oil prices rise, and they will, and economies crumble, which they will, and unemployment skyrockets, and it will, some bad stuff can happen.
Until I envision a STABLE world WITHOUT economic growth, I'll have trouble discounting even the worst doom-and-gloom scenario outright.
I couldn't agree more. I'm not a "doomer", but it is difficult at best to see this "transition" happen smoothly.
I've gone through a similar journey. It is so transformative that it is a kind of enlightenment. Now I'm seeking a positive direction rather than more horror stories.
I've been reading about PermaCulture - Holmgren and Mollison are the originators of these ideas but they are rapidly spreading.
I'm also reading Wm Catton's Overshoot and Collapse. While this in some ways is "just another terrifying" story, it dovetails with Permaculture in presenting an ecological vision of our predicament.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2573 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:22 pm Post subject:
Welcome Timecr0ss...congratulations & condolences! So many like to blow off PO as a conspiracy theory or such...glad to have you on board but at the same time it IS hard to live a normal life after this info sinks in so i offer my condolences as well.
You put it very well, how it's not about running out...it's about the decline! so many people just can't wrap their head around that one.
Welcome to the boards. It is good to hear some more moderate voices here.
Nano is partially right. Oil is tied into so many aspects of our civilization that peakoil is going to trigger a lot of adverse events. However that doesn't necessarily mean that everything will go wrong at the same time. Nor does it mean that we cannot find (partial) solutions to some of the approaching problems.
You also should not loose sight of the timescale involved. The decline of the oil production is a slow process, crawling along at 3% per year. That means that barring some catastrophic events we will always have enough oil to keep our society running during our lifetime. Although we will most certainly get to see some pretty bad things, the real problems are for the generations after us.
The decline of the oil production is a slow process, crawling along at 3% per year. That means that barring some catastrophic events we will always have enough oil to keep our society running during our lifetime. Although we will most certainly get to see some pretty bad things, the real problems are for the generations after us.
Unless of course Matt Simmons is correct, and several giant fields decline rapidly from MRE.
Then of course... it's a different animal altogether. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 292 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:56 pm Post subject:
RonMN wrote:
You put it very well, how it's not about running out...it's about the decline! so many people just can't wrap their head around that one.
Well, so many people can't wrap their heads around *decline* even being a problem! After months of doggedly serving my friends and family with one undeniable proof of inevitable, imminent global peak oil after another, I still have managed to only convince my direct family and closest friends of the harrowing, insidious danger of it all. And probably not even because they understand the whole complexity of the thing, but rather because they *know* that I wouldn't be real worked up about anything if there wasn't something in it.
The finer problem has become how to convince people of the need to act *independantly* from public opinion or government advise. That remains the real challenge every day.
Starting at the end of this year, the US economy will suffer a number of recessions with periods of slight increases between them. This recessionary period will last approx. three to six years.
With each recession, there will be ‘belt tightening’ and ‘head scratching’ to the effect of … “gee, how are we gonna get over this oil addiction with the least amount of withdraws”.
People will at first voluntarily live more efficient lives to soften the recessionary impact on their own households. However, as time passes and it becomes clear that this issue will not easily go away, the govt will enact measures to ensure all citizens are doing their part.
Somewhere in this timeline, a strong US recession drags down the world economy with it. These recessionary periods will prompt public outcry for solutions and buy everyone a bit more time.
This is the point where my thought process breaks down. Does the human race try to propagate the status quo or deal with this issue head on? As the world economy is drug down by the forces of PO, we are now only feeling the minor stomach cramps of the proverbial a$$plosion. Until the masses of ‘Joe six packs’ and ‘soccer moms’ understand the ramifications of the situation, I sense that little will be discussed or implemented.
I think that in the near future we will see more congressional hearings on PO, more studies done and overall a more openness to dialogue. The question is … is this too little too late? _________________ If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 3:22 pm Post subject:
smiley wrote:
Welcome to the boards. It is good to hear some more moderate voices here.
Nano is partially right. Oil is tied into so many aspects of our civilization that peakoil is going to trigger a lot of adverse events. However that doesn't necessarily mean that everything will go wrong at the same time. Nor does it mean that we cannot find (partial) solutions to some of the approaching problems.
You also should not loose sight of the timescale involved. The decline of the oil production is a slow process, crawling along at 3% per year. That means that barring some catastrophic events we will always have enough oil to keep our society running during our lifetime. Although we will most certainly get to see some pretty bad things, the real problems are for the generations after us.
Right. I am fully aware of the timescale invloved, and that's an excellent point to bring up. Although I feel that the effects of PO will begin to take hold in my lifetime (I'm 24), it is the thought of what my future children will have to endure in the post-peak world that amplifies my fears.
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