I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:38 am Post subject: What would you do?
These are the (4) current options I am considering in no particular order
(1) Moving to Brazil (from U.S.)
My wife is from Brazil so we have the option of moving there to an un-densely populated area (away from Rio or Sao Paulo) and getting a piece of land/house and making the best of it.
some of the benefits:
-- there are many poor people in brazil. going from poor to poor will not be such a shock when TSHTF. Versus going from McMansion/SUV to poor.
-- People seem to have stronger social bonds and community in brazil (less individualism than U.S.)
-- Lots of agriculture in brazil and agricultural land
-- warm climate
-- As my wife said, when TSHTF, people in brazil will still be dancing, making music, and having fun.
some of the downsides:
-- there are many poor people in brazil. If you visit a city like Sao Paulo you can get a glimps of the future. The breakdown seems to be a few years ahead of us (think children sniffing paint on street corners)
-- If the US decides to become more aggressive militarily, people may decide I'm the enemy just because I'm American (although I've never experienced anything like this in Brazil).
-- we would have to leave our current jobs without milking them to the end.
-- our income potential goes way down in the near future
(2) Selling our current house and buying a sailboat
some of the benefits:
-- allow us to sell house and get out of mortgage, with hopefully enough left over from selling everything to get a nice bluewater boat.
-- allow us to stay local and milk our jobs
-- allow us to hopefully form a community with other sailers
-- fish, fish, fish. I've fished all my life and can't imagine life without fishing.
-- take to the sea when TSHTF, depending on circumstances, head for SE Alaska or head to the South Seas.
-- I'd rather die making a run for it in the middle of the pacific, then in the midst of some angry mob in our decaying cities (death with dignity)
-- sailing to the n. coast of brazil (combination of above option)
some of the downsides
-- pirates
-- no fixed land base
-- arriving in hostile ports or locales
-- sailboat maintenance and upkeep
-- scurvy
(3) selling our house, renting, and buying a piece of rural land in WA state.
some of the benefits
-- get out of our mortgage (our only debt)
-- milk our jobs while they last
-- gives my local family a place to retreat to
-- I've grown up hiking/fishing/exploring the wildlands of WA
(I know most species of animals, many plants and most trees)
-- fixed land base with hopes of building community with neighbors
some of the downsides
-- zero farming experience
-- don't have tons of money (wouldn't want to take out a loan)
(4) Staying Put
some of the benefits
-- 3/4 acre lot that could mostly be converted in to farm/garden/chickens etc.
-- dug well
-- wood stove
-- seperated from Seattle by large moat (puget sound)
-- on an island
-- milk our jobs
some of the downsides
-- mortgage mortgage mortgage = debt debt debt
-- on an island (worried about barren store shelves)
We will undoubtedly choose one of these options. What would you do?
The best place for you depends a lot on things like your previous experience living in similar situations. You don't really want to get yourself in a place that you aren't familiar with when TSHTF.
If living for extended periods of time in a boat is something that you have done before, I think a sailboat is the best option for you. It has the flexibility that, wherever you are, you can move somewhere else if things start getting tricky. You can always settle somewhere aftewards if it looks like a nice place to live post-peak. Not having a fixed land base in this case is more of an advantage than a disadvantage. Of course, I'm assuming that you are familiar with this lifestyle and you don't dislike it, because you can't possibly call a boat a home if living in a boat for a long time gets on your nerves.
Sailboat maintenance will be harder than for a conventional home, but a careful study of your likely needs and post-peak alternatives should help. After all, sailboats have been around for a long, long time. We know it's all been done without oil before.
Scurvy or other nutritional problems shouldn'd appear if you intend to stay at port most of the time. For long stretches of sailing, good planning will be essential.
Assuming good communications, the probability of arriving at hostile places is low. You should know what is the situation in a particular location before you go there.
As far as I know, pirates are rare nowadays. A good question is if they will become more common in the future. Assuming again good comms, I think pirates will still be rare. If people know exactly when and how ships are being attacked, they can avoid the area, devise a defensive strategy, or even go to help.
I think one of the best ways to make use of America's super economy and the rest of the world's depressed economy, is to build up money in America and move out of the country. I think your Brazil idea is a good one. Not only do they have better social bonds in the small communities of brazil, but they're also very selfsuficient (oil use is a luxury and not a nessecity)
The only thing I would be concerned Brazil becoming a police state again as it did in the 80s with the Death Squads (or was it Venezula), in anycase avoiding major cities can keep you pretty safe.
Being a bit of a mariner, I also like the boat idea, so perhaps move to a boat now to milk your jobs then sail it down to brazil when TSHTF.
I like this idea a lot. I've gotten so caught up in 'Duck and Cover' mode that I forgot that my wife and I originally had the plan of retiring to a boat (add to that buying a little hut in Costa Rica, and I think we have a PO plan )
Although the carribean is a major piracy hotspot, so any such plan will require some heavey firepower especially post PO (hmm, I wonder if my Dad's friend still has his granade launcher from his sailing days) _________________ Angry yet?
Forget about the sailboat imo, everything about boats is very expensive and you may not find a ready supplier to replace items like sails in the future. You will need a pretty good sized boat to carry even the basics needed in life and will be nothing more than an easy target for anyone wanting to take it or them.
Do you really want to completely rely on being one rock away from homeless? Can you defend this boat 24 hours a day if needed? How are you going to get it out of the water for frequent & very expensive maintenance? What are you going to cook on? Will you be able to fashion things like sails and a mast if you lose the ones you have? A sailboat would be the last thing I would consider in this situation for sure.
I have a boat right now and its just like everybody said before I bought it, you may as well stand on the dock and throw your money straight into the water because that’s the only thing you will ever be doing when owing a boat.
I have a boat right now and its just like everybody said before I bought it, you may as well stand on the dock and throw your money straight into the water because that’s the only thing you will ever be doing when owing a boat.
ya but it was nice to dream for minute. My Dad's friend who has sailed 3 oceans currently doesn't sail anymore because he can't afford it.
The otherside bar to this is not only are you not sulf-sufficient on a boat but actually totatly dependant on other people the minute you dock.
Ok, so scrap the boat, I still think moving south is a good idea _________________ Angry yet?
He's retired onto an older sailboat and is constantly doing work around the boat. His life does depend on other people, but if something does happen at home, you could pretty much pick your destination. I guess you would want to keep a good supply of gas/food stored in case of such a place.
Boat maitenance also depends on the materials used in construction.
Obviously wood needs more maintenance.
Aluminum hulls offer less maintenance and keep weight down.
And fishing has always been and will continue to be an income so bartering fresh fish will help with aquiring supplies.
This is also not a "I like the sea" deal.You have to be a Mariner.You have to know how to read the weather.
The sea is nothing to play with and commands respect.If you piss off Poseidon,he will chew you up into little bits and spit you all over.Ever been out in number nine winds with waves so big coming at you one after the other and bashing you with relentless fury???If not,you are in for a treat.Your life will depend on your skills.Ever been caught in a sudden storm?One minute sun,and three minutes later all hell breaks loose.And you will have your wife with you???
Off the coast of baja,near Mexico there is tuna migration at a certain time of year.
If you know how,a couple big tuna always bring in the good bucks.
I do it here in May and October for yellowtail.(note the sig)
But I see the vessel as a plan B so to speak,like just backup.(very expensive backup though)
If things are bad,piracy will increase.The weapon of choice is the M60 or larger.Deck mounted.Your vessel must be light,fast and easy to maneuver. _________________ ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
kochevnik, I speak "caveman portuguese"...enough to get around and get things done, but not carry on a good conversation. So that would be a challenge.
I'm still in the early stages of planning, but I think I want to sell my house and get out of my mortgage (maybe I'm paranoid, but I have this nightmare of massive home foreclosures, where people are kicked off their properties and rounded up in to labor camps to "pay off their debts" ...I guess someone without debt could be rounded up in to the same camp though).
I'm really not sure if I have enough time to get a piece of land and learn how to raise enough food to get by. Unless I join an intentional community or create one with friends. I'm really more a hunter gatherer than a farmer...and I think I will have lots of competition in the hunting/fishing department on land. So the sailboat idea is still pretty strong in my mind.
Yes it's very dangerous, and poseidon could open a serious can of whoop-ass on me, but if conditions reached the point where I felt we needed to take to the seas. I think I'd rather take my chances on the sea. If I never had to flee then I could stay local and do a lot of crabbing and fishing.
I think I would buy a small boat as well something in the 28' - 32' class, that is as low maintenance as possible (relatively speaking). I've read several accounts of people who have done the "sail around the world thing" and they said if they did it again they would choose a smaller boat. Heck, Ed Gillet paddled his double kayak from Monetrey Bay to Maui.
There is also the hope that I would have created lots of friends at the marina and that I wouldn't be the only one sailing. In fact I like to envision an armada of boats, a small wind powered post-peak navy.
The plan is coming together! Until our exit from the harbor is blockaded by coast guard gun boats who confiscate our boats for "the public good."
I like what Roosevelt said...
"...in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the
worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his
place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither
victory nor defeat."
No one knows what the future will bring. I think you have the right idea in that debt will be a very bad thing to have when hard times come. The simple reason being in that most of us will not likely have jobs to pay the debt. I spent a lot of time with my grandparents when I was a kid. They were in their late 20's when the depression started in 1929. My grandfather never held a regular steady job through the 1930's. So what I remember about them from the 1960's was that they never went into debt for anything. When they bought their house in the 1950's they paid cash, no mortgage. All cash for a new car. Cash was put into envelopes each week to pay the bills when they came due.
The lesson to be learned from the depression of the 1929-1941 was that debt was very bad. Some people here are delusional in that they think their debts will be wiped out by hyperinflation. That may be, but in my opinion the best situation to be in is to own your residence (house, boat, trailer, etc) with no debt. If you are a renter, where are you going to get the rent payment from if you have no job?
As far as a debtors camp. A more likely scenario in my opinion would be a return of the company town. A person would work in the coal mine, live in the coal mine's housing and buy food from the coal mine's store. This is essentially slavery as there is no way out of this situation. Debt equals slavery. We have it now, people just call it their job and don't realize they are worker slaves. I have been trying to get out of debt (only my home mortgage) before I ever found out about peak oil and the likely consequences for this reason. Peak oil only hastens my desire to be debt free so that I don't become a slave in the more than likely hard times to come.
Joined: Mar 16, 2005 Posts: 51 Location: United States
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 6:57 am Post subject:
Wow, labor camps, company towns? Thanks guys, as if I didn't have enough concerns with my own imagination.
hey, seldom, does smith follow that name? Just curious. Anyway, you mentioned the hunter gatherer thing. I just posted a topic about that. I don't think we all have to be farmers. I'd like your input.
I love your idea about sailing. Even though it may be totally impractical or too dangerous, at least you got an exciting dream! And I agree with you, if you gotta go, you might as well go out in style with both barrels blazing! After all, survival is nothing if you're miserable.
Im just saying,that the sea,like any natural force,is nothing to be taken lightly.
Like I said before,number ten is ships docked,nothing travels.So just imagine yourself in number nine winds 8-15 miles out with the sea beating the crap out of your little 30 footer.Up and down up and down up and down.
Waves are like 5-6 meters.And they DO NOT let up.
30 ft vessels look like row boats in this weather.
I been caught in these storms a few times..Every time I thought "this is it,were not going to make it".
On the inflateable,this is absolutely one of the highest adrenaline rushes even better than skydiving.The oceans sheer might just humilates you.
Only those who have done it know.
You hit that wave the wrong way,and it´ll flip you over and you´ll be fish food.
Or even getting caught in the heart of a storm.Right where it starts.Now thats another trip.One minute sun,then all of a sudden dark clouds appear out of nowwhere,its almost night.Then C-CRACK lightning.You see the thunder bolts and they seem so close because they are so huge.Their power only makes you realize how fragile you really are.One huge giant electric current falling from the sky.Its incredible.
Then hurricane winds and the sea starts getting violent.Six or seven hours of what comes next,and you will find out who you really are thats for sure.
Sea survival is definitely not yachting on weekends believe me. _________________ ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
Whatever path you chose, I would definitely get out from underneath that mortgage. You're not being paranoid in thinking the housing bubble is about to burst. It's coming, and sooner than most think. To get a grip on what's happening to inflated real estate around the country, check out this site:
As for you not being a "farmer," I've been on my land now for more than 15 years and don't know the first thing about traditional farming. Now gardening, and raising animals small time, is a different concept, and it's not rocket science. There's a lot of gardening info on the web; the important thing is to get started now in the learning curve.
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After all, survival is nothing if you're miserable.
