How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Ok, my hubby and I will be inheriting a sizable amount of money in the next couple of months once an estate is settled. We will be inheriting appoximately 70,000.00 before taxes.
My question is....what is the best way to invest it? We have a low debt load. House payment, small car payment and one credit card with not much on it.
You must keep in mind...my hubby does not think peak oil is a problem. He thinks I'm a nut for getting wrapped up in everything about it that I have read on the internet. So, trying to get him to pay off the house with this money is out of the question.
That being said...what other investments would be good. CD's? Anuities? I can't buy a bunch of gold or silver, he would never go for that.
Joined: May 16, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: Rural, Indiana.
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:22 pm Post subject:
Well, Pops, you have to keep in mind. I have a husband who does not believe in Peak Oil. I truly doubt if he would go for buying land out in the country..especially after we just bought and moved into a new (well, built in 1910) home.
It's bad enough he wanted to open a business...a food related business with the money, but I think I have him talked out of that!
Right now he wants to invest it in CD"s or something along those lines. Not the stock market.
Is there anything out there that is safe and would still be safe in 10 years? I'm doubtful on Roth IRA"s. I had someone suggest those.
Perhaps I should just stuff it in my mattress! LOL!
I dont know your situation..depending on how much you pay in interest monthly, investing in CDs wont put you very far ahead. With no debt, you are in a very secure position heading into PO. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6371 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:58 pm Post subject:
As MS said, if you have short-term debt and you pay that off you are effectively “earning” what you were previously paying in interest, MUCH more than a CD. And it seems that could be a easy sell – I mean rational.
I’m no expert (ask anyone here) but that’s the route I’m taking. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
If you believe in Peak Oil, then you likely believe inflation will be high when it happens. The inflation protected treasury bonds might be the safest bond. The interest rate they pay is protected from inflation. It pays a given interest rate and it adjusts with the inflation rate.
Backed by the US gov't.
That might be a decent investment for the first few years of post-peak.
Longer term, if you believe the die-off scenarios, then it doesnt matter. But if you are just looking for a safe investment and are worried about the effect of inflation on your investments, those bonds are likely decent.
I would wait about a year though. The fed is in rate raising mode right now. Wait at least one year to see where they level out.
Maybe you should get a copy of Leeb's book, "The Oil Factor." It is about investing to profit/protect yourself in the coming years.
I think Leeb is in denial (or not being honest with the reader for being labeled a doomer) as to just how cataclsmic the situation is going to be. Alternatively, he knows how bad it is going ot be and is not being honest/upfront with the reader for fear of being labeled a doomsayer.
Nonetheless, the book might be enough to convince your hubby to at least consider higher oil prices (much, much higher) in terms of evaluating your investment option
As far as the die-off - it has already started at the botomm and will work its way up the economic food-chain. The better off you are finanically, the more time you have before the wolf kicks down the door and starts nibbling on your toes.
Joined: May 16, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: Rural, Indiana.
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 4:38 am Post subject:
There is no convincing my spouse about peak oil. Very stubborn man, he is. I'm not even going to try anymore right now. If I were to outwardly buy him a book to read, he'd throw a fit. He seriously think his wife is a nuts for believing these things from what I've read on the internet. So, let's not even go there on trying to convince him.
Yes, we are paying off our debt with the inheritance except for the house. He does not want to pay off the house.."for tax purposes".
I just want to make sure whats left of the money after the car is paid off...that the money will still be there in 10 years available to us so that we can then pay off the house. Do you get what I'm saying?
Right now he may not believe in Peak Oil. But, 10 years from now he may be singing a different song. So, I'm trying to help us for the future when hopefully he does believe it. This is why I've been working on disuading him from opening a coffee/sandwitch shop with this money.
Assuming you get (after tax etc...) $50,000 take home.
How about you split the money between you and hubby?
He invests his in his way & you in yours?
That way, once he spends his 25 grand on a failed sandwich shop, you still have 25 large in Oil & Gas futures. (The recent favorite of the large investment firms), from your smart investment.
Unless you feel that oil & gas is sure to drop in value over the next 2 years, futures in O & G are a pretty safe bet.
From your post, sounds as if hubby is inclined to swing for the wall, with a small business he hopes grows and multiplies your money. While this is possible, note that over 1/2 of small businesses fail, and even worse for restaurants.
Since hubby refuses to admit the possibility of PO, I assume he's not a big math guy. Might be wise to approach an investment councilor before deciding. Someone who is familiar with the options and has some idea of where the smart money goes. They can educate you on the different investment options, as characterized by your investment philosophy, conservative or high-risk.
How about this? Take 15%, and buy gold or silver. Not futures or stock, but take delivery of the metal. Put it in a bank, or bury it or whatever. You will almost certainly make money on it as gold prices rise, and gives you a fall-back position during hard times. Invest the rest in whatever...
Since hubby won't talk about Peak, it seems pretty likely that you're not going to spend that money in a "Peak Smart" kinda way... So perhaps you should just spend it on enjoying yourselves now. If things get as bad as some suggest, at least you will have some kicking memories.
Be shy on paper-only investments. Any serious depression could result in a total loss. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
So, how do treasury bonds work? And are they safe even backed by the government? I'm not trusting the government righ now.....
Treasury bonds are considered the safest investments. It would take the entire world falling apart for the US gov't not to pay. Of course, that is one of the possible outcomes of peak oil in a worst case scenario. But if that happens, money will likely have no meaning in it's current sense.
Of course, you will be paid in dollars. That does not protect you against currency flucuations or inflation. There are now inflation protected treasury bonds. TIPS.
Joined: May 16, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: Rural, Indiana.
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 12:15 pm Post subject:
My husbands brother died in January and left his estate to be divided evenly between his brother (my husband) and his sister. So, to be exact, the money is my husbands once he gets it. In fact, he is executor of the estate.
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 1:31 pm Post subject: I'm a stubborn husband too
I am opinionated about this, and no expert, so please take me with a BIG grain of salt and my stated good intentions.
I think I most likely do thick headed things to my wife like your husband appears to do to you like when she has a good concern and I am in denial or too controling to listen. So since I can see this in myself and don't even listen to me I am pessimistic you'll get hubby to listen to you. And you seem to be ok with that so what if you asked him to 'give' you some of the money perhaps a very small amount like one or two thousand dollars because if you had 1-2 thousand dollars of your own that you wanted to do something with for future security it would be real easy to give you a suggestion.
You would buy several small bits of physical gold of several types and ages(coins,bullion, pre and post 1933) and you'd put them away with your good photos and birth certificate or tuck them into your small emergency survival kit.
You'd do this not to make money or see a 'return'. You'd do this for the VERY long run, when and if, the schitt really hits the fan. At which time all hubby's bologna would be eaten, all the grinder rolls would be gone, all the US central lying bank backed paper in the world would be kindling and YOUR simple, small, bits of PHYSICAL gold will make the difference between LIFE and DEATH.
It does not matter how LITTLE you get it matters that you have some, get some when you can. Ask him to indulge you this one small fantasy, gold is pretty, you are pretty, you should have some. One thousand will be a small amount he might say yes and then let him try the sub shop, or CDs or TBills/indexed and support his idea- he might be right too.
But, either way, you will have the only method of liquid resource preservation that has served man reliably since the begining. Assuming you have your health and a few supplies and plans, then not having a concentrated, portable, highly liquid nest egg, regardless how small (remember wedding rings and gold teeth have been the emergency money of last resort for many individuals), to augement these precautions then you are lost.
Just get some-you can't go wrong and you don't need so much of it to get your hubby into a power struggle.
Slithering of off my soap box, my fervor is sincere interest in your question, be well.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6371 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 7:12 pm Post subject:
Thanks guest, you didn’t leave enough slippery stuff while slithering to make me slip.
When the stuff hits the fan I’m gonna want some corn from the guy down the road. I know no one who would sell his food, his bike, blanket or water bottle for gold – they have no idea what it is worth - or even if it IS gold. Do you? Excuse me, can you direct me to the local assay office?
Maybe you have more worldly or gullible acquaintances than me, but if I wave a “C” note under someone’s nose - they know what I’m talking.
Why not slip several thousand dollars in small bills under your mattress. No reason to not diversify, in fact I have a friend that has many trade goods from salt to powder to PMs, but he has some cash in case he needs something that the average guy has and this friend knows what the average guy has grown used to valuing – greenbacks. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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