Review of the Olduvai Gorge

linlithgowoil · Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 3:11 pm Post subject:

i just dont see the human race reverting to the stone age in 2008. anyone agree?

snowhope · Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 5:44 pm Post subject:

Yes, not in 2008, but what about 2018 or 2028? By then we might not have electricity left anywhere. The wars and destruction that accompanies them will be over and the human race will be picking up the pieces. We will certainly have stepped back maybe 150 years? Much knowledge will be lost. Life could be at a susistance level where anything that doesn't help you survive on a day to day basis becomes irrelevant and thus forgotten. How long would the good old days take to disappear? All worst case thoughts, but imo definately not beyond the realms of possibility. Sad

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2185 Location: Arkansas

All I know is this, Duncan made predictions and gave timelines, so far, everything seems to be fairly accurate. He predicted blackouts before there were any, and the evidence of more and more blackouts keeps mounting, to include studies from various energy groups that say not enough is being put into growth of the electric grid. So, even though you may not agree with his theory, the proof is in the facts, and each year, with more and more blackouts occuring, seems that serious consideration should be given

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2185 Location: Arkansas

Yet another entity says there will be power shortages by2007. Notice on the news forum on this site today that the Canadian NEB warns of power problems in 2 years. All you guys still think Duncan is off his rocker?

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 5064

RG73 · Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:18 am Post subject:

RG73 · Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:21 am Post subject:

Just wanted to added that obviously the window I speak of assumes we bring new nuclear plants online at a nice clip and institute conservation measures. Neither of which is likely to happen in a timely fashion of course, so maybe we are screwed.

seahorse2 · Expert Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1898

Its not just Russia, India and China. Read this whole ongoing topic. The Candadian NEB is predicting power shortages in 2 years, and they're not some third world country. The same is true for Europe, which on an early post, is also predicting power problems if serious infrastructure development isn't undertaken. Finally, the good old USA, after our NE power outage, we publicly proclaimed we have to spend all this money to update and improve our antiquated system, which we have not done. Of course, as anyone on this forum knows, its not just coming up with the money to build and improve the necessary electrical infrastructure, its finding the source to fuel the plants, be it natural gas (not), coal or nuclear (unlikely). Bottom line is, everycountry in the world talks of a growing electrical problem, no one is doing anything about it. But, back to Duncan, he predicted all this long before it was a public topic. He gave a fairly specific timely, and I end again by saying his original 2012 time line seems to be pretty accurate.

PeakKYJelly · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 12, 2005 Posts: 142

the Olduvai slide (2000-2012) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'

70% of households in America own their own homes. Where's all the homelessness? I see a heck of a lot of new homes being built. Who's buying them? Ghosts?

RG73 · Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 7:06 pm Post subject:

jato · Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 7:16 pm Post subject:

Ludi · Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 7:25 pm Post subject:

PeakKYJelly · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 12, 2005 Posts: 142

Own, as in, have a job to pay the mortgage, as opposed to being homeless and jobless.

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2185 Location: Arkansas

peakkyjelly,

Whether Americans own homes has nothing to do with the Duncan theory. Basically he says that as population grows, there's less energy to go around, the system becomes strained and eventually breaks down. Now, whether all Americans rent, own, or something in between has nothing to do with that theory. Again, he says that this energy problem will ultimately manifest in power blackouts. Are you disputing the power blackouts? If you read this forum in its entirety, there are already signs of problems with our grid in the U.S. and abroad, and not just third world countries. Both Canada and Europe have stated that without massive infusion of investment we can expect power shortages. So, again I ask, how are we not tracking Duncan's basic premise?

I would also ask that you read his basic timeline, wherein he predicts the slide from 2000-2012 to start with economic problems. Remember, he was writing this in the heydey of the stock market and before the crash and recession of 2001. Who else predicted this? We still have not returned to the stock market highs of 2000. Unemployment is up since 2000, real wages have not kept up with inflation, and inflation is reering its ugly head, the dollar has dropped in value 30% since 2000, the fed is trying to rear in inflation, which gov't stats don't include energy and food prices in bc they are too volatile (not crap, but its they are the things we all must buy). So, are we in a depression like 1929? No, but are we in a precarious situation with Americans and their gov't up to debt to their eyeballs, you bet. So, don't let the percentage of "homeownership" draw you into a since of complacency. All those workers at GM may now be homeowners, but that may not last too long, same with the UAL employees.

Battle_Scarred_Galactico · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 970

As Ludi said, paying off a mortage does not mean you own the house.

Lose job, no payments = Out you go

Sounds pretty homeless to me.
_________________
"One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."