We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 4:47 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
outcast wrote:
Ok, so if the lights are still on all the time in my little corner of the universe in a few years, would that be enough proof that the gorge theory is BS?
Unfortunately this is no bull sh!t, it's the real deal. You can have a good theory but still get bad results.
For example a mathematical equation can be perfect but if you plug in the wrong number for X you'll get the wrong number for Y. That does not mean the equation is bad. Not to get off topic but the most famous or infamous example of this would be Thomas Malthus's die-off theory.
///
As for electricity production, technically speaking the sky hasn't fallen down yet ---> but it will! You just have to be patient.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2003 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Outcasts,
Many of the questions you are raising have already been discussed on the 55 pages of this thread, and after years following the issue, it gets harder and harder for me to rehash the same old ground. In short, here's what I've learned:
The problem is not as simple as Duncan's "Gorge Theory" it is a multi-facetted problem of decreasing energy reserves; lack of foresight to switch to alternatives; lack of investment to deal with aging infastructure; lack of investment to deal with increasing demand by rising population and rising electrical usage for all our new gadgets.
Further, the lights will not go out all at one time in the world, for the simple reason the world does not have an integrated grid. Therefore, the "Gorge" will manifest itself at different times in different regions throughout the world, as it already is.
Further, Americans have the belief that they are a super power, super rich, and third world problems are third world problems not theirs, never seeing that in fact America is broke, that America has
reach peaked finances, and they will not have the money to deal with their own electrical issues which will bring them the same third world electrical problems being faced by South Africa, Chile and the like.
I do think America's ignorance can be its own undoing and do not rule out that what happened to the Vikings in Greenland for example could happen here - not to that extent (die off). I only use the Vikings as an example of how ignorance of a known problem leads to bad, unrecoverable results.
I do believe there is a point of no return in dealing with problems, including the problem of the "gorge". I think America is close to a point of np return in dealing with its energy problems, be it electrical issues or oil/transportation issues.
The real importance of the simply "Gorge" theory to me is to get ignorant Americans to look at the issue and realize the problem's complexity and hopefully start dealing with it. But, sadly, no one is. As I've said before, Americans can't even deal with their own entitlement programs which are clearly broken and much more easy to resolve than something more complex as electricty problems. So, I have little faith at this point that Americans or the rest of the world will really take any action which will prevent blackouts and brownouts from becoming the norm, not the exception.
The only thing I've seen recently that gave me any hope was the mention of the new micro reactor by Toshiba, which is a stand alone system capable of commercial output not dependent on a grid.
Last edited by seahorse on Sun May 11, 2008 1:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
The United States it the furthest out on the limb of a particular direction in industrial and social development and thus is, in relation to other nations, the most critically vunerable.
I am anticipating that the US will fail catastrophically fail as conditions worsen. There will be a tipping point beyond which the illusions that are holding the US together at the moment, evaporate.
A good case to watch would be in the next couple of months if there is action taken against Iran.
The world is, collectively, on the very edge of tolerance of the actions of the US. An attack on Iran, by either Israel or the US, will trigger actions that have been deliberately held back, and those actions will very quickly race out of control.
No amount of interference will forestall the complete collapse of the US dollar.
The US will be in no position to respond in a timely fashion to the halt of oil shipments to its shored. I could see complete embargoes being implemented, not just for oil but for many goods.
With the USD worthless, countries will be legitimately concerned with payment. The increasing military conflicts will provide the excuse to stop shipping.
The US is over-dependent on the Just-In_time management and supply model. In a matter of days whole industries will stop. Groceries will disappear.
The US population is completely unprepared for a crisis even remotely like the above. Just look at New Orleans, then consider that applied nationally. I'm not talking about the storm, but the massive logistical problem that was the primary manifestation of the disaster. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
seahorse wrote:
...
The only thing I've seen recently that gave me any hope was the mention of the new micro reactor by Toshiba, which is a stand alone system capable of commercial output not dependent on a grid.
I tend to be very skeptical of small scale electricity generation. IMHO that's for rich folks who can afford it and it's not for Joe Sixpack. For example in 3rd world nations there's not enough capacity to meet the demands of society. So some people run their own diesel generators for electricity. If you don't have the money for your own generator then I guess it's tough luck.
The introduction of these small scale electricity generating systems is actually a sign of collapse. It means government has failed to provide for it's citizens, that's the only reason why people would turn to these small scale systems.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2003 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:05 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
The introduction of these small scale electricity generating systems is actually a sign of collapse. It means government has failed to provide for it's citizens, that's the only reason why people would turn to these small scale systems.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
cube wrote:
The introduction of these small scale electricity generating systems is actually a sign of collapse. It means government has failed to provide for it's citizens, that's the only reason why people would turn to these small scale systems.
I must agree. Such technology must be stopped before it gets noticed any more than it already has.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
The real importance of the simply "Gorge" theory to me is to get ignorant Americans to look at the issue and realize the problem's complexity and hopefully start dealing with it. But, sadly, no one is.
Indeed America is f*cked and it is our own damn fault for caring enough to stop it earlier, so that is why I went away.
Quote:
the rest of the world will really take any action which will prevent blackouts and brownouts from becoming the norm, not the exception.
I don't think that's fair, AFAIK in many places it was reduced rainfall that reduced the hydro plant output, I don't think they could have seen that coming.
In any event, if the rest of the world "will not take any action which will prevent blackouts and brownouts", then why is china upgrading it's electrical infrastructure and building more power plants?
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:23 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
KillTheHumans wrote:
cube wrote:
The introduction of these small scale electricity generating systems is actually a sign of collapse. It means government has failed to provide for it's citizens, that's the only reason why people would turn to these small scale systems.
I must agree. Such technology must be stopped before it gets noticed any more than it already has.
I've noticed that some people on this forum have an inherent distrust for almost anything centralized. This seems to be based on ideology rather than any evidence to support such a belief.
I've said it before and I'll say it again:
It's cheaper to buy a whole pizza rather than 16 individual slices.
If society cannot afford a 1 GW power plant then it most certainly cannot afford 1 million x 1kW mini power plants.
If you cannot agree with that than there is no other avenue for us except to agree to disagree.
I've noticed that some people on this forum have an inherent distrust for almost anything centralized. This seems to be based on ideology rather than any evidence to support such a belief.
Ideology has more to do with how people view peak oil then just about anything else, IMHO.
cube wrote:
If you cannot agree with that than there is no other avenue for us except to agree to disagree.
I agree to disagree alot, if only because of relative efficiencies. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 3:38 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
outcast wrote:
Ok, so if the lights are still on all the time in my little corner of the universe in a few years, would that be enough proof that the gorge theory is BS?
Duncan in 2005 wrote:
The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilazation is approximately 100 years: circa 1930 - 2030.
I agree the the gorge theory as it has been packaged and repackaged is BS:- that is trying to fit everything into a neat curve to make industrial civilization last just 100 years. It is also BS how Duncan has restated the theory in very different terms at different times but still calls it the same theory (that is being dishonest).
However, there are a number of very significant points that Duncan makes (and to my mind he would have more credibility if he had stuck to these points). These points are I believe well worth debating and keeping up-to-date as to how they are actually playing out in real life:
1) The importance of looking not at total energy used but energy use per person. ie. how does it change our outlook if we consider Peak Oil in light of population growth.
2) The observation that what might go first is the electricity distribution system, given its complex nature and its reliance, in North America, on gas.
His dates etc should be a result of trying to apply the above points, that is a result of the theory, not as Duncan has published then as the definition of the theory. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Quote:
I agree the the gorge theory as it has been packaged and repackaged is BS:- that is trying to fit everything into a neat curve to make industrial civilization last just 100 years. It is also BS how Duncan has restated the theory in very different terms at different times but still calls it the same theory (that is being dishonest).
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
outcast wrote:
Quote:
I agree the the gorge theory as it has been packaged and repackaged is BS:- that is trying to fit everything into a neat curve to make industrial civilization last just 100 years. It is also BS how Duncan has restated the theory in very different terms at different times but still calls it the same theory (that is being dishonest).
Good point.
_________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
outcast wrote:
[The premise of the gorge theory is effectively that the electricity situation will get to a point to where we will be facing permenant shortages because of population and then it will cause the dark ages v. 2.0. You think it is already here (based on the The gorge is hungry, the gorge is moving this way, the gorge is moving that way posts of yours), and I'm calling BS by pointing out the different reasons for the current shortages
Here's the critical piece of data you seem to be missing. It doesn't matter why the shortages are occuring. All that matters is that they are occuring. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Dreamtwister wrote:
outcast wrote:
[The premise of the gorge theory is effectively that the electricity situation will get to a point to where we will be facing permenant shortages because of population and then it will cause the dark ages v. 2.0. You think it is already here (based on the The gorge is hungry, the gorge is moving this way, the gorge is moving that way posts of yours), and I'm calling BS by pointing out the different reasons for the current shortages
Here's the critical piece of data you seem to be missing. It doesn't matter why the shortages are occuring. All that matters is that they are occuring.
The gorge theory ties it to population, and in many places such as Costa Rica it is because of climate change, not population growth.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Dreamtwister wrote:
Here's the critical piece of data you seem to be missing. It doesn't matter why the shortages are occuring. All that matters is that they are occuring.
Thats certainly not the premise that Duncan put forth. He most certainly said WHY. Several whys.
But whats occuring isn't occurring because of those whys. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
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