How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2787 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
ROCKMAN - have you checked out Robelius's very interesting paper Giant Oil Fields? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Walter, there is an unspoken message here.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:37 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
DUDE
NO...I HADN'T SEEN IT. PULLED IT UP AND READ THE ABSTRACT. LOOKS LIKE PROBABLY THE BEST CURRENT ESTIMATE OF WHERE PRODUCTION INCREASE ARE GOING. I'LL STUDY THE DETAILS THIS WEEKEND.
HEY!!!! EVERONE....CHECK OUT DUD'E REFERENCE TO GIANT OIL FIELDS.....COULD BE A NEW THREAD ALL TO ITSELF
Look at that, in spite of all these anecdotes, electricity generation worldwide continues to rise across the board.
This thread is just silly!
While there is little question that power is an issue in many areas, I do agree that this won't cause the end of industrial civilization. Electricity production problems are nothing new, especially in the third world and is caused by a number of reasons, ranging from under-investment to climate change (which affects hydro output). It will hurt us, but it is hardly the end.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
We have to award the Dude the top priize for LINK THE YEAR.
His link to Fredrik Robelius' "Giant Oil Fields – The Highway to
Oil" should become the BIBLE OF PEAK OIL. Fredrik's PhD thesis is all the more amazing given he's a Swede far removed from the oil patch. I decided to run through it at lunch even though it's over 140 pages long. Fortunately the first half covers oil technology so I could jump ahead. But if you desire to learn more about the process it is an excellent summary. Very thorough without being overwhelming. But dion't try to go over it if you're tired.
I've cut out a very short view of his work:
"Although contributions from new field developments and deepwater is large, production from the 333 giant oil fields still dominates. Besides production from other fields and giant fields, NGL is the single largest contributor. Despite optimistic production forecasts of the undoubtedly large resources of Orinoco and Alberta, their contribution is not enough to offset peak oil."
"Notably, in all scenarios, future oil production is governed by the the giant fields and when they starts to decline the rest of the liquids follows at the same time or a few years later (figure 9.3).
The main difference in the different scenarios is the peak production
level, where the worst case scenario peaks at just above 83Mbpd in 2008 while the best case scenario reaches a peak level of 94Mbpd in 2013 (figure 9.4). Thus the time span is only 5 years but the production level span is 11 Mbpd."
"The giant oil field model is based on past annual production, URR and three different assumed decline rates. The results from the modeling of 333 giant fields are used in combination with the other forecasts in order to predict future oil production. Four different scenarios have been modeled and peak oil governed by the giant oil fields is a common result for the scenarios. The worst case scenario shows a peak in 2008, while the best case peaks in 2013 although at a higher production level. The production in the best case scenario increases more rapidly than a future demand growth"
I saw only one major flaw in his model (which he readily acknowledges as a potential error): the inclusion of ramped up Canadian tar sands and Venazuelan heavy crude. The Canadian gov't has cancelled plans to build all those nuclear plants in the tar sand play needed to process the bitumine. And with Chavez's nationalization there is no capital to expand the heavy crude play significantly.
But even with his original optimistic forecast of these two components he concludes that they would make very little difference in PO.
I'm going to try to track down Fredrik and see what he's up to at the moment. Simmons is here in Houston just down the street from me. I don't know the man but then I'm not one of those shy types. I would hope he is familiar with Fredrik's work but if not he will be shortly.
Let's hope Fredrik has a good command of the English language with only a slight accent. He should have the biggest soap box around IMHO.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
And a little more fuel to the fire. Searching Fredyk I found a site new to me but probably known to many here: http://www.aspo-usa.com/. It's "The Associatiation for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas"
Found this on their site:
"Fredrik Robelius, member of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, UHDSG, Uppsala University in Sweden, defended on March 30 his thesis “Giant Oil Fields – Highway to Oil”. The university had appointed Dr. Robert Hirsch to be the official opponent in the oral defense of the thesis.
In the final remarks Dr Hirsch concluded that the peak oil debate now reached a new level. The fact that the forecast openly can be studied in detail and that limits are given it’s now up to CERA and other to explain in details why they end up in other forecasts. If not, the forecast from Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group is the on that the world should use for future planning"
I have to say that I'm now I've gotten some solid tech data I'm as stirred up as any zealot out there. Last time I felt this motivated by a cause I ended up in a strange land with people shooting at me. But I was much younger then. Now I'll just settle for fighting my battles in front of the computer monitor.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:42 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
It's just the aging process kicking in Seahorse. After 30 years of grinding it out in the oil patch things can become mundane...even thinking about PO. If you think some folks look at you odd now when you discuss PO imagine how it was 20+ years ago. I just got tired of the blank expressions. But know there's quite a few intellent folks out there that get it.
Or put more colorfully, unlike Don Quiote I got tired of fighting those ignorant windmills long ago. But now, when you have folks like Fredryk putting out good data and not the anecdotal BS that abound around here sometimes, I really am enthused and inspired. Add to that the growing number of folks as we find here I do feel somewhat "born again". But the aging process does preclude getting too radical about it.
You mentioned earlier about Fredryk's work becoming a new thread. I haven't really studied this website's protocols. How would that be done? Or less subtlely...quick...you go do it now.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
ROCKMAN wrote:
Dezakin
WHAT ASPECT OF THE THREAD DO YOU FIND SILLY?
What, seriously? Its a giant collection of anecdotes of electric power problems, and attempting to use anecdotes to describe a trend. Looking at the numbers, the trend just isn't there.
Can check up on the oil drum update of olduvai if you like.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2068 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge
Dezakin,
I'll just check up on the Olduvai theory here, since there is a thread here at PO dedicated to the topic and since the Oildrum doesn't have one specifically on the theory, and further, since they seem to believe the world has an integrated power grid that either survives together or fails together.
Now, I understand its silly to be wasting time here, so quit being silly and asking silly questions wasting your silly time, and go ask the guys on the oildrum gorge thread the same question.
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