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dukey
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 1948
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 Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:32 am Post subject: uk gas situation |
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related to oil ..
how fast is UK production of gas decreasing ?
and where does uk expect to get new gas from if its not going to come from the north sea. |
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Doly
Expert
Joined: Dec 03, 2004
Posts: 4027
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:38 am Post subject: Re: uk gas situation |
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| dukey wrote: |
how fast is UK production of gas decreasing ? |
A very good question. Seems fairly fast to me, but I can't find decent figures.
| dukey wrote: |
and where does uk expect to get new gas from if its not going to come from the north sea. |
From other countries. There is plenty of gas in the Middle East and also some in Russia. But transport of gas is tricky, which means that gas will certainly become more expensive.
And of course, there is also to consider when is world peak gas going to happen. According to Campbell, around 2012. |
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Permanently_Baffled
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
Posts: 1180
Location: England
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:38 am Post subject: |
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The UK will deplete to 60% self sufficiency by 2010 and only 30% self sufficiency by 2020.
The shortfall will come primarily from LNG (Qatar, Malaysia etc) and by pipeline from Norway , the Netherlands and eventually Russia (gulps  ).
We need to go nuclear, after all, what is more secure? gas from the middle east and russia? or uranium from Australia, Canada and the US?
PB
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 7:15 am Post subject: |
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| Sorry dude forget this netherlands stuff.... our gas has peaked lonnnngggg ago and its going to decline faster soon. |
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Permanently_Baffled
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
Posts: 1180
Location: England
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 7:24 am Post subject: |
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| Taskforce_Unity wrote: | | Sorry dude forget this netherlands stuff.... our gas has peaked lonnnngggg ago and its going to decline faster soon. |
I think it was only planned to be a tiny amount anyways.... Over a third of the shortfall in UK gas is from the Qatar LNG project through Milford Haven. This could go up more by 2010 as phase III of their LNG project completes. The rest will come from the north sea (30% until 2020) , Norway, Malaysia , Algeria etc etc.
Price is gonna skyrocket though .... 
PB
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dukey
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 1948
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 7:32 am Post subject: |
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can anyone put numbers to this
i cant find any |
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Permanently_Baffled
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
Posts: 1180
Location: England
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 7:39 am Post subject: |
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Off the top of me head:
Current consumption 95bcm
Current production 103bcm
2010 Consumption 100bcm
2010 Production 60bcm
2010 imports 40bcm
2020 Consumptiom none as PO caused nuclear war and we are all dead 
2020(optimistic) Consumption 105bcm
2020 Production 30bcm
2020 Imports 75bcm
Hope this helps. 
PB
Hope this helps!
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stu
News Editor
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 2493
Location: Ye Olde Englande
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 8:22 am Post subject: |
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I'm so glad someone decided to raise this becuase I have just started research on this topic. 
I've started here so I can figure out reserves and production rates.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
| Quote: | | According to OGJ, the UK held an estimated 20.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves in 2005, a 6 percent decline from the previous year. |
| Quote: | | The UK produced 4.0 Tcf of natural gas in 2003 according to DTI, the same as the previous year, but a decrease from the peak of 4.2 Tcf in 2000. The country is the fourth-largest producer of natural gas in the world, behind Russia, the United States, and Canada. |
Interestingly there are 4 pipelines that come from the North Sea to terminals in the UK. Two go to Scotland, One to Teeside, and another to Bacton in Norfolk.
| Quote: | | There are four main pipeline systems in the UK that carry natural gas from offshore platforms to coastal landing terminals. First, the Shearwater-Elgin Line (SEAL), operated by Total, transports gas from the Shearwater-Elgin area to the landing terminal at Bacton, England; according to DTI, the 290-mile, 34-inch pipeline carried 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2003. Second, ExxonMobil operates the 200-mile, 30-inch Scottish Area Gas Evacuation (SAGE), which transports associated natural gas from UKGS fields to the landing terminal at St. Fergus, Scotland; according to DTI, SAGE carried 1.5 Bcf/d in 2003. Third, the 250-mile, 36-inch Central Area Transmission System (CATS), operated by BP, links fields in the Graben area of the UKCS to Teeside; 1.4 Bcf/d of associated and non-associated gas flowed through CATS in 2003, according to DTI. Finally, Shell operates the Far North Liquids and Gas System (FLAGS) linking associated gas deposits in the Brent oil system with St. Fergus; in 2003, DTI reported that the 280-mile, 36-inch FLAGS transported 760 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of associated gas. Once brought onshore, the responsibility for transporting natural gas throughout the country belongs to NGT. The company operates over 4,200 miles of transmission lines, transporting 3 Tcf of natural gas per year |
Bacton is also the site for an international pipeline that runs to Zeebrugge in Belgium. It can either import or export gas.
http://www.interconnector.com/PhysicalOps/Bacton.htm
I'm also aware that there are plans to build an LNG terminal in Kent.
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linlithgowoil
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 20, 2004
Posts: 890
Location: Scotland
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 8:25 am Post subject: |
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i think natural gas is more of a problem to the UK than oil is. mainly because millions of houses have gas central heating, and pretty much all new houses i know of always use gas heating. my house uses gas heating.
what on earth is going to happen when i turn on the heating one day and the pilot light goes out because there is no gas in the pipeline?
no idea. the only good thing for me is that i rent my house from a government body - if we need a new coal boiler, and we will, theyll have to provide it. in the meantime, we'd be very cold and have no hot water! |
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dukey
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 1948
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| Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| i think if/when gas runs out it will have a double affect. If a lot of power plants are gas fired then there will be a serious electricity shortage. And when gas runs out people will want to cook etc on electricity, thereby probably increasing the demand for electricity a lot. |
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stu
News Editor
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 2493
Location: Ye Olde Englande
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:25 am Post subject: |
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These are the estimated projections of Natural Gas Production according to the DTI.
Billion Cubic Metres
2005 85 - 100
2006 85 - 100
2007 85 - 100
2008 75 - 90
2009 65 - 80
2010 55 - 70
| Quote: | The projection for gas production relates to UKCS production available for sale. Gas production is expected to be broadly flat between 2005 and 2007 before falling from 2008 onwards. The timing and extent of the decline remains uncertain and is subject to a range of factors, including investment decisions and success in exploration.
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Production Projections
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clv101
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 02, 2004
Posts: 1078
Location: Bristol, UK
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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The Future of UK Gas Supplies, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology:
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/POSTpn230.pdf
The biggest problem with this analysis is that they seem to think that building a pipe capable of 16.5bcm a year means that 16.5bcm a year will be available to us. I think it is extremely naive to believe we can solve our gas problem by building a pipeline to mainland Europe. Why over the next decade when energy supplies are going to be generally tighter everywhere do we think that we can successfully export our demand somewhere else.
The other scary point is this one:
| Quote: | Storage
The UK currently has a total gas storage capacity of 3.3bcm, equivalent to 14 days’ supply at average winter gas demand rates.
This contrasts with many European countries whose gas markets developed with import dependency and which have large strategic storage capacities, of up to 80 days’ on average compared to 13 days for the UK. |
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stu
News Editor
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 2493
Location: Ye Olde Englande
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 1:32 pm Post subject: |
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Can someone confirm this for me?
According to the new BP report, daily natural gas production for 2004 in the UK was 9.3 bcf/d.
Link 'Gas Production – bcf'!A1
x that by 365 and you get a rounded up figure of 3.4 Tcf.
According to the EIA website the UK produced 4.0 Tcf in 2003.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year.
Yikes.
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Permanently_Baffled
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
Posts: 1180
Location: England
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:02 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: | Can someone confirm this for me?
According to the new BP report, daily natural gas production for 2004 in the UK was 9.3 bcf/d.
'Gas Production – bcf'!A1
x that by 365 and you get a rounded up figure of 3.4 Tcf.
According to the EIA website the UK produced 4.0 Tcf in 2003.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year.
Yikes. |
Yep when those gas fields decline they do it big style!
Oh well, who wants to live forever anyway.....*gulps* 
PB
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clv101
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 02, 2004
Posts: 1078
Location: Bristol, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: | Can someone confirm this for me?
This means that production has dropped by 1/6 in the space of a year. |
Sounds about right, apparently oil fell 17% and gas fell 13.5% over the last year.
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"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe |
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