'Twilight in the Desert: ...' Matthew R. Simmons

Shea · Coal Joined: Apr 19, 2007 Posts: 6

I have just read, and was greatly impressed by, Mr. Simmons' book. When I first heard about his book two years ago I dismissed it because I believed Daniel Yergin's views concerning the coming age of plenty.

Well, my views changed when I picked up the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago and noticed a front page story on the Mexican super-giant oilfield, Cantarell. The article noted that the oil industry had been stunned to learn that its production had plunged 20% in just one year, and that Mexico was going to be a net oil importer in approximately eight years. Strangely, the article failed to mention Peak Oil or Hubbert's curve. That same omission was repeated in Daniel Yergin's Pulitzer prize winner, "The Prize."

You can imagine how stunned I was to read "Twilight," and learn how dangerous the world had suddenly become. As a world, we're driving blindfolded at 90 miles per hour into a brick wall.

In short, I think its shameful that our present administration hasn't acted on this information, other than seizing the oilfields of Iraq. It's doubly strange because Mr. Simmons is an adviser to this administration. Or, perhaps Mr. Simmons went public because he couldn't get anyone in the administration to act upon this knowledge. In any case, he cleverly neglected even to mention Iraq.

pstarr

Jack1234567890 · Coal Joined: Jul 22, 2007 Posts: 3

I recently came across this book, haven’t bought it yet. Obviously, I haven’t got a chance to read it yet.
But, did anybody read the book (Twilight in the Desert: The coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons)

If so, what do you think about this book? Is it worth the read?

I'm very interested in crude oil market. I like to know what you think of the book, and if you agree or disagree with him.

Also, if there's any other book regarding crude oil market (peak oil, and other's aspect of the market as well) plz let me know.

thanks.

BigTex

Yes, I have read it. His thesis is that Saudi Arabia is closer to declining production than anyone thinks.

The thing I didn't like about the book is that it is not particularly well written and repeats the same points endlessly. It has a place on the Peak Oil bookshelf.

As for other books, there are probably 10-20 titles that give you a good feel for Peak Oil from different perspectives and different angles.

Just get on Amazon and do a peak oil search. You'll get all the big ones; read the reviews and decide for yourself. I just finished "The End of Oil" and I thought it was a balanced view of the problem and possible solutions. Many peak oil books lean toward the doomerish and can leave you more exhausted than informed.

Tanada

I own it and read it cover to cover the first time. Since then I have re-read some sections of it a second time and a couple of them multiple times for historical context.
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watercut · Coal Joined: Jul 24, 2006 Posts: 5

I have read the book and would have to agree with the comments above that it becomes boring after about 200 pages. The first 200+ pages are quite interesting, however, Simmons then begins to delve into field-by-field production analysis which can become a litte redundant. One must keep in mind that the purpose of the book was to discect Saudi oil production capacity and it hits the mark very well.

The book I would strongly recommend is "The Coming Economic Collapse" by Stephen Leeb. That book is like reading tomorrow's news today. Leeb correctly predicted the Technology bubble bursting and he is also right on with his peak oil projections. Over the past year, the returns generated on his stock recommdations made in the book are downright obscene. Much more upside to come including RIG and others.

Enjoy the books

skyemoor

Yes, worth the read. Gives insights into how Saudi geology plays into their ultimate production. Broad and deep overview.
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joewp

There's a four page thread on it in the Book/Media Reviews forum, click here.
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AirlinePilot

I recommend the title "Hubbert's Peak" by William Deffeyes. Is a good primer on peak oil in general and i dont recall him getting really doomerish. Its an easy read and also has decent info on how we go about extracting and producing oil.

TheDude

Deffeyes is also funny, in a techie type way. Like telling a story about how he had a student who was a Saudi with connections to the big Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco, Ken kept leaning on him to get some geological data. Finally the student came through and Ken got to exam some samples of Saudi reservoir rock. Turns out it was made by huge amounts of, erm, pellets swirling about in the currents offshore. So Ken goes home and announces to his family that the biggest oil well in the world is made out of crap.

I'd recommend watching videos and listening to audio. Lots of good stuff at YouTube and Global Public Media.
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