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AdzP
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 26, 2004
Posts: 103
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 Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 9:38 am Post subject: Oilcast #7: French government examines `peak oil` theory |
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Oilcast 7 looks at the Shell Scenarios report, a French government round-up 'Oil Industry 2004' that takes a long look at 'Peak Oil' theory...plus King Fahd's secret lady friend... the rig count is down yet up...price rises could be nothing more than software and amazingly unreported anywhere else, demand outstripped supply in Q1 2005.
www.oilcast.com |
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OilsNotWell
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 1257
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| Just listened to it. Good report...dig the musical segues too... |
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seahorse2
Expert
Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 1785
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Again, the best news coverage of the oil issues, bar none. |
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2005 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Where can i find this French report Adam??? |
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AdzP
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 26, 2004
Posts: 103
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:59 am Post subject: |
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Thanks very much for your kind words.
I'll whack the report on the site sometime today i hope. |
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2005 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Thx Adam |
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khebab
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 935
Location: Canada
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khebab
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 935
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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Ok, it's a good and thorough report that proves that the French government is taking the PO issue seriously.
However, I find this report is very optimistic and put the PO date at least in 2012 in the worst case scenario (no new discoveries and demand growth of 3% per year, see table page 9 below):
"Taux de croissance des besoins"= demand growth rate
"Découvertes annuelles"= new discovery per year
If we want to compensate for depletion (3% per year) and increasing demand we need to put online 22-25 Gb (already discovered) every year until 2010:
| Quote: | we see that already available reserves in 2005 (i.e. 1080 Gb) are superior to the world need for the period 2005-2030 estimated to be 984Gb (based on a 2%/year demand growth). However, it won't be enough to satisfy demand beyond 2013 because of limitations and constraints in oil recovery (depletion): only 695Gb of the 1080Gb can be exploited: 695Gb= 190Gb (fields already discovered but not exploited) + 505Gb (fields currently exploited)
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Solution: new discoveries (in red, production from new fields to be dicovered after 2005, in light green: production from fields already discovered but not exploited yet, in dark green: current production, blue: projected demand)
They believe we can discover 20Gb of new reserves each year until 2030 wich puts the peak in 2023 at 113Mbd. The investment required is estimated to be about 250 G$ each year!
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3440
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| Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5438-0.html
| Quote: | | amazingly unreported anywhere else, demand outstripped supply in Q1 2005. |
The faithful readers of PO.com have been aware of this situation since the beginning of March. |
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AdzP
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 26, 2004
Posts: 103
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:29 am Post subject: |
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cool!  |
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pup55
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Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3440
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| Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I find this report is very optimistic and put the PO date at least in 2012 in the worst case scenario (no new discoveries and demand growth of 3% per year, see table page 9 below): |
The real "worst case scenario" is reality, which is 7-9 gbo discoveries per year, and demand increase of about 4%.
If I have imitated their model correctly, this set of circumstances suggests decline in about 2008. |
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khebab
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
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Location: Canada
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| Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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| pup55 wrote: | | Quote: | | I find this report is very optimistic and put the PO date at least in 2012 in the worst case scenario (no new discoveries and demand growth of 3% per year, see table page 9 below): |
The real "worst case scenario" is reality, which is 7-9 gbo discoveries per year, and demand increase of about 4%.
If I have imitated their model correctly, this set of circumstances suggests decline in about 2008. |
I agree, you're right !
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Taskforce_Unity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 22, 2004
Posts: 487
Location: Holland
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| Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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| pup55 wrote: | | Quote: | | I find this report is very optimistic and put the PO date at least in 2012 in the worst case scenario (no new discoveries and demand growth of 3% per year, see table page 9 below): |
The real "worst case scenario" is reality, which is 7-9 gbo discoveries per year, and demand increase of about 4%.
If I have imitated their model correctly, this set of circumstances suggests decline in about 2008. |
7-9????
5-7 according to Douglas Westwood... |
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