Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2005 5:26 pm Post subject: 'Kunstler.com' J.H. Kunstler [WEB]
Ok, I was a good sport and bought The Long Emergency and read all of it. There was much to agree with. Unfortunately, there were many idiosyncratic unsupported opinions and no new or useful information. The only thing I really liked about the book was expressed in the title. I agree that fossil fuel depletion will not be a single apocalyptic event but a series of problems compounding over decades. But that is hardly a fresh revelation. Suburbia was well criticized back in the 1950s as well. So my feelings were ambivalent.
This is really worthless stuff, the man has lost it.
Ok, misanthropes has made great contributions to American social criticism, H.L. Mencken comes to mind. Kunstler is no Mencken.
Dr. Hunter S. Thompson's semi-autobiographical over the top "gonzo journalism" created a true literary classic with Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. But 1971 was long ago, and Kunstler is no Thompson.
So Kunstler is frustrated by air travel, can see that United Airlines is gutted, has a bad hip, isn't impressed by workplace fashions at Google, hates LA, and has a low opinion of various grassroots groups that are trying to improve their communities. So what? I see a angry and depressed writer flying around the country burning jet fuel and chasing fiat currency (just like almost all of us in the developed world) while advocating that Americans all retreat to small towns in the northeast or northwest US.
Why even bother to read this stuff? Simmons and Deffeyes taught me things I didn't know. Kunstler simply irritated me. Kunstler is Peak Oil's version of Andy Rooney. If one is entertained by a baby boomer who has managed to become a cranky old man at age 56, maybe he is good for a few laughs. Other than that, he isn't worth reading.
{The debate rages within how to sort out this thread. Rather than hack it up, since most of it is about Jim himself, for now, pointing at his website makes the most sense. A "Long Emergency" review is already posted in a separate thread. EE} _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2060 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2005 5:47 pm Post subject:
So he was having a bad day.
I enjoyed his rant. He is trying to sound the alarm and he is being ignored. I feel that way on this forum sometimes. A lot of people just don't understand the consequences of Peak Oil IMHO. Most fail to grasp the economic effects of declining energy. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
I, too, found the book interesting - and the rant wasn't bad at all.
As Jato points out, attempts to deal with the wilfully ignorant can become tedious. Perhaps Mr. Kunstler is attempting to figuratively shake the inert masses until they pay attention. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5817 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:02 pm Post subject:
I would count myself as a Kunstler fan. He hits the nail squarely on the head too many times for me to dismiss him. He has become an eloquent voice for many of our inchoate ideas as PO ratchets up. As a society, we need more Kunstlers to knock us out of our consensus trance.
I was a bit disappointed in "The Long Emergency," though. He has too many pet expressions ("cheap-oil fiesta," etc.), and they tend to lose their punch through constant repetition. And the various typos got on my nerves (a decent proofreading job ought to be included in the price of the book).
I was floored by his seeming defense of Bush's invasion of Iraq. I thought to myself, What has he (Kunstler) been smoking? Those pages were truly jarring, imbedded as they are in a book that is otherwise a total condemnation of everything Bush stands for both directly and indirectly, i.e., "the American way of life."
The book, which I read as soon as it came out, hasn't had much staying power in my consciousness (except for the ending, which I thought superb). The book could have been good or even great with much better editing.
If Kunstler's crankiness was confined to his blog, it would be harmless.
But his characterizations of various US regions in his book is pretty inflammatory and of dubious utility. Kunstler favors "the old union" states, which makes sense for a native of that region. But those areas have harsh winters, poor soils, and were abandoned for farming after the midwest was opened. There are many things about "the land of NASCAR" that Kunstler doesn't like. Ok, fine. But those states have milder winters and much more per capita agricultural productivity than New England and New York. Kunstler's idea that the northeast US will be more viable than the southeast US post peak oil is questionable to say the least. And it is this quirkiness as a messenger that undermines Kunstler's delivery of the peak oil message.
A PO-naive listener with average social skills could quickly categorize Kunstler as a classic ranting crank and consequently dismiss PO. Perhaps that is why he is dismissed when he speaks. For this reason, I have not loaned out Kunstler's book to anyone I was trying to educate. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 140 Location: sydney, australia
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:02 pm Post subject:
MicroHydro wrote:
But those states have milder winters and much more per capita agricultural productivity than New England and New York.
You might need to check on the reason why those regions have a higher agricultural productivity. Is because of the multitude of fossil fuel based pesticides and fertilizers that farmer use? The same ones that won't be available as readily post peak?
As Michael Ruppert said, most of the farmland in the US is nothing more than a sponge onto which we pour chemicals to grow food.
Not to also mention the fact that you need massive amounts of air conditioning to make it a hospitable place. And this airconditioning is powered by electricity generated by - you guessed it - fossil fuels.
I was floored by his seeming defense of Bush's invasion of Iraq. I thought to myself, What has he (Kunstler) been smoking?
I didn't read his book but remember him ranting about those cars driving with bumper stickers saying "War is not the Answer". He (Kunstler) said that these stickers are completely wrong since "War is the Answer" for a society that is fully dependent on oil.
I keep thinking about this comment and came to fully agree with him. The guy is a big complainer, but that might be his German heritage- I swear Germans are the biggest complainers in this world, no matter how high the quality of live is over there.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4190 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2005 2:33 am Post subject:
Yeah, guy was just having a bad day, modern travel can do that to people!
I don't like his pro-war stance and his ranting about "islamo-fascism" but I love most of what he does, and he's sure out there getting the word out.
His hatred of Muslims and Southerners has to be taken with a big grain of Kosher salt, haha! He has a lot of good points and he really wrote a classic in "The Geography Of Nowhere". The guy's done a lot of good work and will continue to do so.
You might need to check on the reason why those regions have a higher agricultural productivity. Is because of the multitude of fossil fuel based pesticides and fertilizers that farmer use? The same ones that won't be available as readily post peak?
Also, I think part of why Kunstler thinks the northeast will be better off than the south and most of the midwest isn't because of climate, but because the northeast was built before oil, and retains a lot of that scale of development. Nobody will be able to get anywhere in Atlanta or Kansas City after the peak.
I also agree with I_Like_Plants that "The Geography of Nowhere" is a classic. That was the book that opened my eyes to the mess we have made of the built landscape in America. There are better authors to read for Peak Oil, though.
I also agree with I_Like_Plants that "The Geography of Nowhere" is a classic. That was the book that opened my eyes to the mess we have made of the built landscape in America. There are better authors to read for Peak Oil, though.
Ok, I can agree with that. His past criticism of land use planning was well done.
The authors I loan out for PO are Deffeyes, Goodstein, and for those who need a real wake up call, Savinar. Simmons will join the list when I am finished with the book.
PS: Also the 1957 classic study from Caltech The Next Hundred Years by Brown, Bonner, and Weir. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5817 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2005 11:05 am Post subject:
Regarding the viability of the Northeast versus the Southeast post-PO, I can say, as someone who lives on a small farm in the Virginia Piedmont and attempts to grow stuff there, that the biggest agricultural issues of the future will be bugs, weeds, and plant diseases, which are currently controlled mostly with vast infusions of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides (all of which, as has been repeated ad nauseum, are oil-derived). After these chemicals become scarce or uneconomical to use, yields are going to drop astoundingly---organic is great, but yields are a lot lower. The Northeast has a less severe problem with insects and will be correspondingly better off. Also, a lot of the South's soil was badly damaged by centuries of tobacco farming. I'm not convinced that, for small-scale farming, the soils here are fundamentally superior to the Northeast's, except for some very rocky areas in New England. The climate difference isn't a big factor; although the South certainly has a longer growing season, its heat and droughts are far worse than the Northeast's, so there I think you have a wash at most.
Kunstler made cogent and insightful points about the cultural differences between North and South. I agree with him that those favor the North. The average citizen will in many ways (except for home heating) be better off in the North. (And here I am stuck in the South.)
Kunstler's "Geography of Nowhwere" is an important book. It justified my lifelong disgust with sprawl. Kunstler is a brave person and I commend his sane angry voice in the face of a Matrix-like national psychosis. Anyone who isn't disgusted with this once great nation is either stupid or corrupt.
Given that, his "Long Emergency" may be a bit redundent. Deffeyes and Simmons have more credibility (and for me) new and interesting petroleum geology and geopolitics. For the doomer perspective I can't wait for Savinar's book to arrive (it seems backordered or lost in the mail or somthing) I own Rupert's book and it kind of scares me. Kind of a dark, dark, dark rabbit hole.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 5817 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2005 7:02 am Post subject:
Leaf wrote:
Let him rant and rave about crap! He's right on! LA sucks and the places he mentions suck and have no future.
Leaf
And I think YOU'RE right on! Protest and its spirit are dangerously missing from our sociopolitical landscape, immersed as we are in the "consensus trance" induced by cheap products derived from slave labor and the permanent destruction of ecosystems. Sooner our later there is going to be huge protest as gasoline and food prices soar and the U.S. lifestyle becomes unsustainable, but whatever proactive measures are possible should be encouraged by rational folk to soften the inevitable landing.
We desperately need to wake up. We need a Kunstler on every block.
Regarding the earlier comment that he doesn't reference his comments enough---it isn't necessary for every opinion to be backed by a reference, especially when that opinion is already supported by common sense. Anyone can travel to LA (or any large urban/suburban conglomeration) and see for himself the horrors Kunstler describes, assuming the observer has an ounce of sensitivity. Kunstler is creating fresh new material, "primary literature"---not derivative crap---that will itself be widely referenced someday.
I'm puzzled that any true Peak Oiler would be discomfited by Kunstler's "ravings."
Kunstler is a crazy old man, but he's earned that right. And who else do you know travels around the midwest telling people their soldiers are fighting for a country that will soon not be worth defending? That takes cojones of steel.
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