Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
For more info, click on the links in the Energy Bulletin blurb:
New peak oil book by McKillop and Newman (press release)
Pluto Press (publisher)
Andrew McKillop & Sheila Newman's book on peak oil, The Final Energy Crisis, is out at last. It is a nice change to see an international range of contributors focus beyond the US scene, and not just on oil and gas, but on how long coal may last if it has to substitute for just about everything else.
The 23 essays from various authors explore the case for the imminent acceleration of fossil fuel depletion and the limits of 'sustainability'. They outline the political background to the situation, not just among the world's largest consumers of fossil fuel, the US and China, but also in Europe and the developing world. Considering our future economic survival, they include a detailed examination of France and Australia. Finally, they explore the extreme costs of alternatives such as nuclear power, and outline other possible lifestyles and methods.
Co-editor, Andrew McKillop, first had the idea for this book. Written by a new breed of "peak-oil economist" and a classicist, McKillop's several essays are highly original. What would happen if the Chinese become car-dependent like Americans? Why, if Africa has so many mineral and oil riches, are Africans so poor? In "Oh Kyoto", McKillop writes on the byzantine complexity of the remarkable Kyoto treaty. High oil prices are supposed to be bad for business, but McKillop writes that they benefit third world commodity economies and break first world stagnation cycles. This model is, of course, only valid for as long as oil remains abundant. McKillop anticipates increasingly hard times ahead in the long term, particulary the lot of young adults in 2035.
Under what circumstances might human societies continue after oil decline? Co-editor and peak-oil sociologist, Sheila Newman is one of very few women in this field and the only female author in the book. She contrasts the potential carrying capacities of France and Australia after oil, after uranium, and after coal have run down. Using historical and prehistorical data, as well as socio-political systems analysis, she takes us 130 years into the future to a much smaller, leaner, Australia, with a society that the current inhabitants would not even recognise. France's prospects are more fertile and why this should be so is a fascinating study of the way that human societies depend on and 'culture' is shaped by landforms and energy systems. It would be interesting to see Newman do this for other regions of the world.
(8 June 2005)
The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKillop with Sheila Newman, £ 15.99 / US$ 28.95 PAPER, 2005/04, 336pp, ISBN: 0745320929 . Available from the publisher, Pluto Press, as well as Amazon.
Now the mainstream economists and financial experts are saying what McKillop has been saying about Oil Prices. Of course for a different reason.
This morning I heard on TV, the local newscaster was interviewing a financial guy when they mentioned $60 oil prices. He said that adjusted for inflation oil is not that high, not hurting the economy, and Greenspan says $120/bl. is the breaking point. Looks like a meme shift has happened.
Joined: Jun 03, 2005 Posts: 207 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2005 5:06 pm Post subject:
McKillop was interviewed in an oline program for an hour by Jim Puplava at http://www.financialsense.com/ Scared me some more ... The thing that most struck me was his conviction that the changes would come RAPIDLY. I had to replay a couple parts of it.
Pops had a point a while back that maybe I should consider buying new windows and a bicycle now rather than later. I'm getting closer! But, McKillop's prepared individual can only manage the crisis for 5 years or so before the vaster crisis overwhelms him or her. I hope this isn't so!
I finished this book the other day and I very much recommend it. However, it has also made me more pessimistic about a positive outcome to the situation.
The table of contents give an idea of the broad range of topics discussed in this book.
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