Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:43 pm Post subject: Production Forecast with a Population Constraint
This little exercise is based on the following observation: the oil production per capita per year has been nearly constant since 1983 at about 4.43 barrels/capita/year (see Figure 2).
Question:
What will be the production pattern if we manage to keep up with the polulation growth as long as we can (magenta points on the graph)?
Figure 1
Figure 2
We assume the following:
1- population grow according to UN prediction (Figure 1)
2- we extract enough oil to maintain a constant number of barrel/capita/year to 4.43 up to 2020 (cumulative production= 1564 Gb)
3- a Verhulst curve model with two values for Q-inf: 2461.82 (BP) and 4173 Gb (USGS)
If Q-inf= 2461.82 Gb, the model cannot keep up and the mid-point is reach toward 2007 and the maximum production date is end of 2014 at 31.28 Gb/year. If we manage to grow our reserve as USGS is predicting the mid-point is 2033 and the PO date is 2025 at 34 Gb (see Figure 3).
Figure 4 shows the projected barrel per capita per year according to the two models. We should go back to the 1965 level in 2020 (Q-inf= 2461 Gb) or 2030 (Q-inf= 4173 Gb).
I just want to precise that the UN projection used here is the "medium variant", there is also a high and low variant. _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
This population-driven consumption curve is really interesting because of the issue of distribution, as it were.
We know that at the moment the US is consuming at a rate of about 24 b/y per capita, so this is 6 times higher than the global average, so this is not going to fly.
You have China consuming at a rate of about 1 b/y per capita, and they have made the political decision to increase this level by having all of their people go out and buy cars. We know that this is not going to fly either.
You have nations like India and Bangladesh, consuming at a rate of less than .5 b/y per capita. Bangladesh is really vulnerable in this, as is Indonesia: lots of people, low consumption, but minimal ability to defend their oil supply. India not in very good shape either, due to its high population. They do have one thing Bangladesh does not have, though (WMD).
You have a nation like Mexico, consuming 8 or so b/y per capita, but with so much poverty that a lot of them are leaving. What happens to them?
All of the above are going to have to deal with reality, as the old saying goes.
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, i really appreciate you posting this.
