How did you find out about peak oil?

an_amok_canuck · Coal Joined: Jan 13, 2006 Posts: 6

A vague awareness from one of the many scientific web sites I read somewhere around 2k.

As a software engineer I was to busy to pursue it, with the advent of the Bush** era, I have had a lot of time on my hands... more reading and more investigation has lead to the conclusion that King Hubbards theory is quite accurate... in the absence of accurate data on the world reserves I would have to say if we aren't already on the plateau, we are damn close.

The economics are what will change... we obviously can't go back to an agrarian economy... we will but it won't be voluntary, perhaps thats a better way of putting it. The US is the fat kid on a really skinny block and hence will feel the pain first and most.... why the denial... if you were the erstwhile leader AND a former 'oilman', would you tell your constituency that not only did your second in command ( Dickus Chenious ) know about it, he kept it a secret?

If we get some of the best minds we have working on it, we may mitigate some of the consequences... a 'space program' for energy... but that would take a leader... .like JFK for instance.... sadly lacking at the moment. It will catch up with him shortly... mathematics has a 'tyranny' all its own... kind of like fighting gravity... you will lose... it's only a question of time... but the loss is a foregone conclusion. The only question is how hard are you going to hit.

thylacine · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 19, 2006 Posts: 113

The initial spark of thought on the subject were memories of the 70's and predictions, way back then, that oil would be running out by 2000. A later career as a geologist has opened my eyes to the fact that the earth won't endlessly provide the resources we demand of it. Finally, news articles about Shell revising their reserves sharply downward made me have a look on the internet about 6 months ago. What a revelatory hour's Googling that was!

In 30 or 40 years time will we be regaling youngsters with wondrous tales of what life was like back in the Oil Age: personal transporation, climate controlled environments, luxury goods, international travel etc. etc?

Also, why the lack of action by our politicians? Too many hard decisions to make? Heads stuck in the sand like nearly everyone else? Where are the leaders of vision?

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4034

lsu2001 · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 23, 2006 Posts: 41

I found Matt's site while researching for material to use in teaching my high school environmental science class. I have known about the end of oil for years but really never gave it much thought. I was much more concerned about weather and the population bomb. (biology major) After reading the site I have come to the conclusion that it makes perfect sense and I am currently thinking and planning my actions if depression hits. I am lucky that I have a place to go and resources already in place. Now I am concentrating on provisions and long-term survival. oh yeah ENTP here Very Happy

spitz · Coal Joined: Jan 29, 2006 Posts: 2

I'm pretty new to the whole "Peak Oil" scene. I am a freshman at Stanford, and was writing an environmental paper on a picture of an oil rig that I had found on the internet. About a week ago, I came across Matt Savinar's "www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net", and was astonished (to say the least). It seems as though I have discovered this problem at a very crucial time, as so many influential economic leaders in the US and abroad are finally coming around. I fear there is so much to be done, and so little time. My main concern right now is planning for the future. I have alerted my father and close friends, and have prompted them to do their own research (I find that this inductive approach to the problem can be much more powerful). From all that I have seen, I must expect the worst. We as people who actually know of the problems of our age only make up a small percentage of the population. For this reason, a central goal in my opinion should be to educate the public, in the largest scales that we possibly can. To think that the leaders of ExxonMobil, Chevron/Texaco and Shell are all admitting to this reality sends shivers down my spine.

annie · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 14, 2005 Posts: 39

I found out about peak oil from my husband Dale Allen Pfeiffer who learned about it from his studies as a geologist. He wrote many articles for Mike Ruppert and educated Mike on the subject. Matt Savinar has said that he learned from Mike and Mike learned from Dale. Dale hopes that we can all look beyond the doom and gloom and off the wall predictions and look for answers and possibilities. But human nature being what it is we sure have our work cut out for us.
Elizabeth Anne Pfeiffer aka (Annie-only on Peak Oil)

rushdy · Heavy Crude Joined: Nov 21, 2005 Posts: 120

I looked under my barrel and there it was Rolling Eyes

cat34 · Coal Joined: Feb 04, 2006 Posts: 1

I guess I really started thinking about it while studying economics in grad school. The price of oil (or any finite resource) is something of a mystery. I went to work as an oil analyst for an energy trading company after school. I have since switched over into analysing electric power markets. A few weeks ago, I stumbled across lifeaftertheoilcrash.com and it really scared me. Up until then, I really thought we had enough oil for a few more generations at least. I still am not convinced of the timing and will have to read more to come to my own conclusions. In any case, we do have responsability to future generations and the environment.
It is interesting that many consultants in energy either ignore peak oil or say that it is very far off into the future. What scares me is that things will have to get pretty bad before most people will change (conservation or using alternate sources of energy).
So I guess I am compelled by peak oil and can't ignore it. I would rather stay somewhat optimistic about the future though. I am trying to think of ways in which I can help so that I don't sit around and wait for things to happen.

whatpeak

It was ironic. I was waiting for new tires to be installed on the SUV when an acquaintence hands me a copy of Rolling Stone Magazine. He says that I should read the article on oil. It turns out to be the excerpt from Kunstler's Long Emergency book. We discussed oil depletion after reading the article and the conversation digressed to Iraq.

A few weeks later I bought a copy The Long Emergency and became hooked. I've been trying to conserve energy at home. We don't have central A/C and don't run the heater that much because it doesn't really get that cold. Still holding out on buying a PV system because of the price.

My wife and I agree on oil depletion, but the economic consequences are open for debate.

jimk

I worked with Deffeyes & MacGregor at Princeton in 1976 & 1977. They gave me a copy of a Senate report by Hubbert. So that's 30 years now that I have been aware of peak oil. What I remember from that report was that world peak would probably hit maybe 2025 or 2030. So what's interesting is that generally the estimates of the peak date have moved earlier in time. Drives me a little batty when cornucopists say that lots of folks have predicted the peak and it always keeps moving out. Sure there is a lot of bad science in the world that is way off target, but there is good science too that gives a decently accurate picture of reality. Hubbert sure looks like pretty good science!

Just by way of introduction, I studied physics in college - four years of grad school earned me an MS. Been writing computer programs since then, programs that analyze designs of digital electronic circuits, i.e. chips.

Another book I read around 1991 that really influenced my outlook was Knowledge Value Revolution by Taichi Sakaiya. As I recall, the basic analogy is with the collapse of the Roman Empire.

Maybe the peak of civilization was really like 1914, or ok maybe 1972. Nobody will come out and announce that civilization has now entered the phase of collapse. At every time, there will be some good news and bright prospects, along with some bad news and bleak prospects. The long bumpy ride down looks just like this, like what we see.

Anyway it seems to me that there is a sort of perceptual problem here with time scales. All this peak oil and global warming business happens on a time scale of decades and centuries. Our lives happen on shorter time scales! The whole survivalist response, that somehow one can build a castle and live through the crisis, doesn't make sense. The "crisis" is likely a 500 year affair. Nobody lives for 500 years!

Of course the long crisis will probably looks like a series of shorter crises, and castles might be useful for some of these.

But in general, it seems to me that what we really ought to work for, the thing that has a chance of surviving and would be worth helping to survive, is the best parts of human culture and civilization. What are those best parts, and how can we do a kind of triage to figure out which we have any hope of preserving or keeping alive, that to me is the most interesting thing to discuss & puzzle over.

daneosporin · Coal Joined: Feb 19, 2006 Posts: 1

I did a search for "oil forum". Peak Oil sounded the coolest and I was very surprised to see how popular the forum is, oil really does run everyone's life!

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Oil Supply and Demand

waegari

I cannot exactly recall what it was I was browsing the web for, but in some way or other I stumbled upon the Rolling Stone excerpt from Kunstler. It was about the most shocking thing I read in years, and soon I understood it to be inevitably true. It was so much in line with what I was already thinking about the global situation, that in a way it didn't even surprise me. However shocking it still was, mind you.

So then I started searching for websites on the subject, did a thorough search with Amazon, got to read Heinberg, and landed with peakoil.com. And just in order to overcome my bewilderment I started to check the web and submit news stories, eventually saying yes when Stu asked me to become news editor.

Not that it helped much to alleviate this bewilderment, but at least now I cannot get caught unawares.
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The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.

Al Bartlett

Cran

My dad told me about 30 years ago that oil would run out... So I'm kind of surprised it's lasted as long as it has...

It's not really just oil that is the problem though, our whole way of living is not sustainable, energy is going to be the biggest problem in the near future though I think. If oil had run out in the 70's it wouldn't have been as big a problem, people didn't have cars and all the gadgets that we have now, and people were more inclined to help each other instead of just try and take what they want and screw everyone else...

My plans are to just make the most of things until the s*** starts to hit the fan, and then quickly move somewhere remote and out of the way... or hide in a cellar with a big gun for a few months... not really sure what's going to happen and we don't have guns over here (unless you are a criminal) which makes the second option difficult, hopefully my kids will be finished school (4-6 years) by the time anything major happens...

I changed my car from a hot hatch to a diesel last year, pertly because of the cost of the fuel, and partly because I need to tow. I'm currently spending less than 50% of what I used to a year on running my car despite fuel being more expensive.

I'm learning to grow food and make water drinkable and all that stuff... but not really making any plans, definately not buying property at the moment. Might get something abroad in a few years (4) though and leave the UK.

Found this site by accident when I was thinking, how come we haven't run out of oil yet... wonder how much is left... and did a google for oil and energy type stuff.

KennyBeeAK

Interview on National Public Radio with Jeremy Leggett about his book "Empty Tank" kicked peak oil up to top priority, January 2006.
I've known about the threat to civilization of resource depletion generally since 1972, when one of my college professors devoted a class period to summarizing the then recently-published book by the Club of Rome, "Limits to Growth". Since then, it was never a question of whether; only of when and how, and if nuclear war or environmental catastrophe would get us first.
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"Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people." ... Eleanor Roosevelt

Epyx · Coal Joined: Feb 20, 2006 Posts: 10 Location: Sweden

I found out about it through a friend that gave me a link to www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com, I didn't really read anything then but one night when I was really bored I read the entire thing and it all made sense to me, after reading it I didn't really know where to get more information about it so I searched google for peak oil and stumbled across this site Smile