I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
MOSCOW Yukos has substantially increased the reserve estimates for its biggest subsidiary, one currently being appraised for sale by the government.
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The Russian oil giant has also reiterated that it is operating on a "day to day basis" and is "still close to filing for bankruptcy."
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Bruce Misamore, the chief financial officer of Yukos, said Friday that an unaudited study of some oil deposits at its huge Yuganskneftegas subsidiary showed potential reserves nearly five times the previous estimate.
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Recoverable resources are now estimated at 93.7 billion barrels, up 74.3 billion barrels from the estimate of just 19.4 billion barrels as of Dec. 31, 2003.
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Joe Mach, senior vice president for production and exploration, said during a conference call on Friday that the additional reserves were discovered after a multiyear study and that they were readily accessible.
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Misamore called the new estimate "stunning" and said that Yukos had passed on the information to Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the investment bank hired to value Yuganskneftegas for possible sale.
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Many analysts fear that Yuganskneftegas could be valued at an artificially low price to promote a sale to a bidder friendly to the Kremlin. A valuation report is expected at the end of this month.
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But Misamore rebuffed suggestions that the company was releasing the new reserve estimates to inoculate against that possibility. "We haven't tried to influence what they're doing," he said.
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Yukos has been the subject of a broad attack by Russian tax authorities and the government, part of a campaign analysts say is being waged against the company's billionaire founder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was arrested last October and is on trial for alleged crimes including personal tax evasion, fraud and embezzlement.
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Yukos produces one-fifth of Russia's oil, about 1.7 million barrels a day, and has been staving off bankruptcy as the Russian government seeks to collect what analysts estimate could ultimately amount to $10 billion in back taxes for the years 2000 through 2003.
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Yukos will have paid roughly $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion of its 2000 tax debt by the end of the week, Misamore said.
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On April 14, the Russian Tax Ministry billed Yukos about 99 billion rubles, or $3.4 billion, in back taxes and penalties for the year 2000. It later added about $4.1 billion in back taxes and penalties for the year 2001.
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Misamore said Yukos was on the "razor's edge" of filing voluntarily for bankruptcy.
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"The situation cannot be sustainable," he said. "We are trying our best to maintain production levels. I don't have any timetables. We are running the company on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis. We understand this cannot persist."
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The New York Times MOSCOW Yukos has substantially increased the reserve estimates for its biggest subsidiary, one currently being appraised for sale by the government.
.
The Russian oil giant has also reiterated that it is operating on a "day to day basis" and is "still close to filing for bankruptcy."
.
Bruce Misamore, the chief financial officer of Yukos, said Friday that an unaudited study of some oil deposits at its huge Yuganskneftegas subsidiary showed potential reserves nearly five times the previous estimate.
.
Recoverable resources are now estimated at 93.7 billion barrels, up 74.3 billion barrels from the estimate of just 19.4 billion barrels as of Dec. 31, 2003.
.
That increase, if true, turns everything around....which may be why Putin seems to be trying so hard to re-nationalize Yukos...not to punish Khodorkovsky for his political activities, but to strengthen natioanl security...It means that puts Russia on par with, or greater than, the reserves of Iraq, as the world's second largest reserve holder.
This would delay peak, but would give Russia an amazing new found power. In Russia, reserve estimates are state secrets, disclosure of which brings imprisonment...
Agreed, KGB Col. "Puty Poot" Putin is a State actor on par with Louis the XIV. He is the state.
He definity knows (as does Bush on another level) of the Oil Reserve situation. I would be wary of the intrest to inflate reseves to aquire more capitol (only to revoke the licience later?) for the sale of some Heavy oil reserves.
Intresting that you note the state of Russia's Reserves is a "state secret", that means one of 3 Possibilities:
1) they do not have a clue how much they have, or more likely: 2) They know and have enough for Russia for the next 50 years
3) They don't have as much as they tell others (less likely IMHO), and really need to consolidate the Russian super states power over it's regional recources vs. US/Brittish "Raiders/Vikings" (BP/Yukos etc.)
Consolidation of Oceana, Europe and North America is right on target.
Looks like War will be chosen to reduce the worlds population so industrialists will make a profit as things will get worse no matter what due to "peak Oil"...
Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:57 am Post subject:
After peak oil , oil equals to power provided Russia can guard it from foreign invaders or 'Mad Max' private armies.
Actually , peak oil is common knowledge provided you watch the right movie or read the right book back in 1980's or even in 1960's. In 1965 movie, Secret Agent in episode Yesterday's Enemies . There was an incredible dialogue regarding the end of petroleum age. The show was first aired in the U.S. on 15 May 1965.
"You realised Mr. Drake. Within a few decades , all the known oil reserves in the world will be completely exhausted. Every petrol engine in the world, every jet , every diesel potentially been dried.
"You marked my words"
"The countries that composed the last productive oil fields will be able to dictator all the others"
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:18 pm Post subject: Are Russia's oil reserves bigger than believed?
Quote:
Are Russia's oil reserves bigger than believed?
One analyst believes the country's oil reserve estimates will double or triple over the next 10 to 15 years. But for now, Russia is struggling with export problems. September 20, 2004 by Steve Liesman
Some 1,200 miles east of Moscow, across the tundra of western Siberia, lies the secret behind Russia's return to the ranks of oil superpowers. The Priobskoye field, a 400,000 barrel a day gusher, is the largest field tapped in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. It has helped the country push oil output above 9 million barrels a day, from just 7 million in 2001. Russia now rivals Saudi Arabia for the title of the world's No. 1 producer.
"Without the increase in output from Russia over the last three or four years, probably a couple of million barrels a day, we'd have had definitely a much tighter supply situation, leading to higher prices," says Stephen O'Sullivan, an oil expert at United Financial Group.
In Russia, prosperity is spelled O-I-L. It's oil from places like Priobskoye that's fueling the economic revolution back in Moscow. And it may only have just begun. Analysts think untapped Russian oil reserves may be much larger than current estimates.
"The reserve numbers are being revised upwards," says Paul Collison, an oil analyst at Brunswick UBS. "We believe that over the next 10 or 15 years a double or triple (in reserve estimates) is feasible."
Is this to be believed? The industry is noted, even by Deffeyes, for example, of being conservative in reserve estimates, and later increasing them for a good news effect. Peak delayed? If true, and SA declines, this certainly does not bode well for US foreign policy or economic interests. We may see Russia rise again.
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2004 1:39 pm Post subject: Russia Overtakes Saudi; Analysts Will Get it Wrong Again
While the status of the world's #1 producer has shifted over time, recently Russia and SA have been jockeying for position. While SA is still the #1 exporter, it is interesting to note that Bloomberg, in a recent report, has acknowledged the fact that Russia is now the biggest producer (see other posting regarding Russia as new cartel): link Oil Hits $47.30 a Barrel on Concern Russian Exports May Be Cut
Quote:
some interesting clips:
Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a one-month high of $47.30 a barrel on concern Russian exports will be disrupted after utilities cut some power supplies to OAO Yukos Oil Co., the country's top producer
....$50 Oil: "We'll see $50 within the next few days or weeks,'' said Stephen Briggs, an energy broker and managing partner at Intermarket Management LLC in Verona, New York. ``I don't see anything to stop it anymore.''
...Russia, the world's biggest oil producer, boosted output by 2.4 percent in the second quarter from the first to 9.14 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia, the second-largest producer, raised daily output 2.2 percent in the second quarter from the first to 8.39 million barrels.
...U.S. commercial crude inventories have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest decline since December 1999, Energy Department figures showed. The last time supplies declined for eight straight weeks was in August and September 1988, when they dropped by 32 million barrels, or 9.1 percent. ....
Couple points I'll make: Most of the mainstream predictions in the past year have been wrong: link
Oil Reaches 1-Month High on Concern About Russian Crude Exports
Wall Street analysts are predicting lower prices for a second consecutive year. Prices will probably average $32.70 a barrel in 2005, based on the median of 39 estimates in a survey by Thomson Financial.
Quote:
The last time analysts predicted lower prices, they got it wrong. On Jan. 2, the median of 42 estimates in a Thomson Financial survey predicted an 18 percent decline in 2004 to $25.46 a barrel from 2003. Instead, prices have averaged $38.82 this year, 25 percent higher than 2003 and 79 percent more than the 15-year average.
They refuse to acknowledge the reason they were wrong, and so will be wrong again: a structural supply imbalance of greatly rising demand (from China, among everyone else), and hidden demand effects due to depletion. They will be wrong again because they do not acknowledge the fundamental shift occuring. They got it wrong on Iraq's production recovery (and this will not likely happen anytime soon, either). They got it wrong predicting Yukos won't affect production. Well, it just did.
Another reason they are going to be wrong again, is this: link
Heat is off the oil market: IEA (9/9/04, wrong again)
Quote:
... (IEA) added: "Opec sustainable capacity has changed only modestly from last month and averages 30.3 million barrels per day ... Opec-10 spare capacity has receded to 300,000 barrels per day." But this excluded "extra capacity likely to be available in the short term on a surge basis which may amount to a further 1.85 million barrels per day."
But this could probably not be sustained for more than three months.
"Key in this regard is Saudi Arabia's reported capability to reach 10.5 million barrels per day compared to this report's assessment of 9.5 million barrels per day sustainable capacity."
There you have it, from the IEA, no less: Saudi Arabia is MAXED OUT. Any increase is unsustainable in the near term, as it is surge capacity (of low quality, high sulphur, heavy oil..)
Here is why these high prices are not going away: link Update 6: Oil Prices Bound Higher for Fourth Day
Quote:
"The problem with oil markets is structural," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of PIRA Energy Group in New York
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OPEC is over as a cartel. It is finished.It can no longer contain high prices. The only effect it could have is to raise prices by withholding production. The market just woke up to this fact.
Another thing I just noticed, even though I've been watching the news very closely.
On 9/9, IEA says OPEC spare capacity was only 310,000 bp/d, in contradiction to all of the supposed 1-1.5mbp/d figures I've seen. Maybe IEA changed their number after the OPEC meeting? Does anyone know?
Quote:
IEA Says Oil Market Well-Supplied, $40 May Not Last
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=70000107&sid=a7iAtctRQG.g&refer=regional_indices
... The 11-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping near its limits to keep up with demand and build inventories. The group produced 29.3 million barrels a day in August, up 410,000 barrels from July, the IEA said.
The increase has reduced the group's potential to respond to any supply breaks. Excluding Iraq, whose exports have been disrupted by fighting and sabotage, OPEC holds just 310,000 barrels a day of spare output capacity, the IEA said.
The group meets Sept. 15 in Vienna, and will discuss boosting its output quotas and the range it seeks for oil prices, OPEC officials have said. Extra supply capacity of 1.85 million barrels a day may be available on a surge basis, the IEA said. "The current spare capacity position can be best characterized as tight, albeit likely to ease over time as OPEC capacity additions materialize in the second half of 2004 and into 2005,'' the report said.
I'm serious, the news and TV is so bad over here for the most part, that I actually thought the above site was a hoax.
People in 'free' countries don't know how controlled they are and how little they hear about the world. Good to see that real scientists can push on even in unfree countries tho'. _________________ the frogurt is also cursed
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2004 9:42 am Post subject: Russia wants out of dollars!?
Bloomberg Looks like the Russians are fed up with the depreciation of there dollar assets. (monte's predictions are coming true , slowly but surely )
Any thoughts on how low the dollar could go? (ignore PO for this excercise and assume $50 oil). Could the dollar go to 1.5 Euro , or 2.5 GBP. If so I am booking my US holiday tomorrow !! _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2004 10:02 am Post subject:
Well, the dollar is 1.87064 to the UK pound today (1.30881 to the euro). I would not be surprised to see $2 = £1 next year. I was in California March this year and the rate was about ~1.83, I picked up some bargains!
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2004 10:09 am Post subject:
At what point does the dollar weakness cause rampant inflation and therefore higher interest rates? Once rates go up that is when recession is likely to bite. Here in the UK interest rates have gone up from 3.5% to 4.75% , which historically is still low, but because of the level of debt even this small rise has really hurt retail sales/consumption. Thoughts from our US friends? _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2004 10:21 am Post subject:
The problems with the dollar are well known (at least on this board), but what is happening with the Euro is pretty interesting. It may be the subject of currency speculation. I say this because most of Europe does not want the Euro trading so high. It makes the BMW I want to buy too expensive.
Putin and Bush are bosom buddies which makes me think that there might be something afoot in this move. Financial crashes and corrections are generally engineered. Not much happens in this world without the blessing of the international banking elite.
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(monte's predictions are coming true , slowly but surely 
