I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
I don't know if people here have followed the thread "past mid-point". Colin Campbell believes that we are past mid-point of conventional oil. He also says that midpoint and peak don't necessarily happen exactly at the same time, so we may not be at the peak yet. But certainly it's imminent.
Remember, the 2007 calculation is peak for conventional+non-conventional oil. But some posters here wonder if non-conventional oil should be aggregated. Non-conventional oil is much harder to refine. Conventional oil may very well have peaked in 2004, and we may be now in the plateau.
According to Campbell, we are meeting the peak oil. He is arguing for Cheap Oil. Yes, when OPEC got rid of the band, cheap oil is over. Unless Iraq stabilizes and wanted to destroy the oil pricing support of $40, I really doubt oil prices will drop below $40, unless China and US goes in a recession. Prices will go $40's to as high as $64 if China and India grew as much as they did last year.
I just think production will continuously increasing until somewhere north of 100mbpd.
Remember unconventional oil and deep sea oil projects are coming online.
We have not seen this much oil exploration and drilling activities for a long time. With prices staying high, we can expect even more.
According to Campbell, we are meeting the peak oil. He is arguing for Cheap Oil. Yes, when OPEC got rid of the band, cheap oil is over. Unless Iraq stabilizes and wanted to destroy the oil pricing support of $40, I really doubt oil prices will drop below $40, unless China and US goes in a recession. Prices will go $40's to as high as $64 if China and India grew as much as they did last year.
I just think production will continuously increasing until somewhere north of 100mbpd. Remember unconventional oil and deep sea oil projects are coming online. We have not seen this much oil exploration and drilling activities for a long time. With prices staying high, we can expect even more.
I'm not sure we have the capacity to move 100mpd around. I don't think the infrastructure can be built fast enough, and I don't see many companies investing the money. We are already seeing companies pull out of large projects. Look at what's happening in the Caspian Sea. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Russia might have peaked in September 2004
Russian_Cowboy wrote:
Apart from Russia (9.4 million barrels per day) I can think of only 5 major producers that can potentially increase conventional oil output: Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. However, together, these 5 nations produce only one-third of world's oil supply. Hence we are at or past the peak
Keep in mind though that not all oil is the same. So if Venezuela inscreased output it isn't near the same as Saudi Arabia increasing the same quantity. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4886 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:27 pm Post subject:
On a more personal level, as I rode past a local gas station last night on my motorcycle I noticed the sign still read, $1.99/gallon for regular grade. I thought, "well, I bet that's the last time I'll ever see a '1' in the dollar column".
I bet I'm right about that. And I wouldn't be surprised if a '2' in the dollar column will soon be a memory as well.
RdSnt, Caspian Sea is a political fiasco that is why investment has slow down there. The Southern Caucus nations are still seeing increasing investment. Just look at the pipelines being built in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They won't invest so much money there if they don't think more oil will be coming down there.
SouthEast asia is having a boom in oil activities. Burma, Malaysia, and others are seeing several hundreds of millions of dollars.
One of the bigger projects to come online soon is East Timor. Even Brunei is starting to explore. Venezuela is still on target to boost their oil production, even though the government won't let foreign firms increase their output, actually calling them to decrease.
Middle East activities will boost oil output. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have finalize agreements, and are actively seeking bids. UAE has some offshore fields that will come online, too.
Norway is going to have every single inch of their continental shelf explore.
Libya is increasing.
Iraq once stable will have a big boost.
Even Chad is boosting output.
Canada will also boost output.
And last and most importantly, Iran will be boosting output by a lot with at least India participating and maybe even EU and China. They just discovered a new oil field and their old fields can use a technology boost.
Anyways, 100mbpd is what is needed to keep the oil consumers humming. Will supplies be able to meet the demand?
We sure won't be able to meet that by 2010 that is for sure. Saudi Arabia needs a huge investment to boost production for us to meet it in 2014 as they will need to produce 15mbpd at minimum.
Non-opec can only supply up to 60mbpd at most. Unless ocean floors and antartica opens up, it is hard to imagine over 60mbpd.
Joined: Feb 16, 2005 Posts: 251 Location: Siberia of Canada
Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Russia might have peaked in September 2004
RdSnt wrote:
Russian_Cowboy wrote:
Apart from Russia (9.4 million barrels per day) I can think of only 5 major producers that can potentially increase conventional oil output: Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. However, together, these 5 nations produce only one-third of world's oil supply. Hence we are at or past the peak.
Keep in mind though that not all oil is the same. So if Venezuela inscreased output it isn't near the same as Saudi Arabia increasing the same quantity.
This means that we are past the peak not in terms of the volume of the oil being extracted daily from underground, but in terms of the value of this oil.
Joined: Feb 16, 2005 Posts: 251 Location: Siberia of Canada
Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2005 7:07 pm Post subject:
nth wrote:
RdSnt,Caspian Sea is a political fiasco that is why investment has slow down there. The Southern Caucus nations are still seeing increasing investment.
I do not know what you mean by "Southern Caucus nations", but ExxonMobil is withdrawing from two projects in Azerbaijan (SW part of the Caspian Sea) not because of political instability, but because it did not find any oil.
ExxonMobil has refused to drill the second mandatory exploration well in Nakhichevan, said Khoshbakht Yusifzade, first vice president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The project will be closed. “Currently we and ExxonMobil are negotiating compensation [for project termination],” Reuters quoted Yusifzade as saying. A top manager at SOCAR said the talks for another Caspian project, Zafar-Mashal, have started. Exxon Azerbaijan Operating Company (EAOC) lost $150 million in Zafar-Mashal last year. In February of 2002, EAOC announced it spotted no substantial hydrocarbon reserves when it drilled the first exploration well up to the depth of over 6 km. ExxonMobile is the operator under Nakhichevan project. SOCAR is its parity partner under Nakhichevan and, along with ConocoPhillips, has interest in Zafar-Mashal project. According to the sources with the oil community, ExxonMobile will also withdraw from Zafar-Mashal, discouraged by the drilling results of the well, which turned out most expensive in the Caspian. Should it happen, Exxon will have to indemnify SOCAR for Zafar-Mashal to add to Nakhichevan project. link
Posted: Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:42 am Post subject: Iran, Russia Sign Key Nuclear Fuel Deal
Quote:
Iran, Russia Sign Key Nuclear Fuel Deal By Paul Hughes
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Russia and Iran signed a nuclear fuel supply deal long opposed by Washington on Sunday which will pave the way for the Islamic state to start up its first atomic power plant next year, state media reported.
The agreement, signed by the two countries' nuclear energy chiefs at the Bushehr atomic reactor in southern Iran, came as Tehran faced heightened pressure from the United States, which accuses it of secretly developing nuclear weapons.
Iran denies the charge and has received strong backing from Moscow, which is keen to extend its commercial interest in Iran's drive to produce electricity from nuclear reactors.
"This is a very important incident in the ties between the two countries and in the near future a number of Russian experts will be sent to Bushehr to equip the power station," Iranian state television quoted Alexander Rumyantsev, head of Russia's Federal Atomic Energy Agency, as saying.
A key part of the agreement is aimed at addressing U.S. concerns, obliging Tehran to repatriate all spent nuclear fuel to Russia.
Moscow hopes this will allay U.S. worries that Tehran may use the spent fuel, which could be reprocessed to make bomb-grade material, to develop arms. FIRST BATCH OF FUEL READY TO GO ...
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4690 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:59 am Post subject:
Increasingly the US is getting cut off from the world's energy supply. This can only lead to war or complete chaos in the US of A. There is a big anti-American conspiracy against the US. The members of this new axis-of-evil are: China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, (maybe Canada), several smaller South Asian countries, and India. The most outspoken member of this new cluster of enemies is Iran. They are openly defying the will of George W. Bush and his friends.
If you live in Iran, get out. If we don't try something against them in the next 4 years, I would be very surprised. If the US attacks the nuclear reactor in Iran, it would cause an embargo. Oil prices would shoot through the roof. A massive recession would hit the entire world and the amount of demand destruction would be impressive. When the world tried to regrow from the "fire", we would smash into the supply limit. Unlike the recessions of the 70's, there would be no more oil to let us grow our way back. The oil just isn't there. We would grow a little, hit the limit and crash again.
Sorry I keep using, "we." I know no one on this board wants to attack Iran, but the powers that be are looking at it as a viable option. At the very least, a war in Iran would make China back down. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Sen. McCain: Bar Russia from G8 Over Iran Deal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States should seek to bar Russia from this year's major-nation summit to protest actions by Moscow including its deal Sunday to provide Iran nuclear fuel, a leading Republican senator said.
This latest step of the Russians vis-a-vis the Iranians calls for sterner measures to be taken between ourselves and Russia. It has got to, at some point, begin to harm our relations," Sen. John McCain of Arizona said on "Fox News Sunday."
Russia and Iran signed their nuclear-fuel supply deal in defiance of long U.S. opposition and only days after Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Bush met at a summit in Slovakia....
Increasingly the US is getting cut off from the world's energy supply. This can only lead to war or complete chaos in the US of A. There is a big anti-American conspiracy against the US. The members of this new axis-of-evil are: China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, (maybe Canada), several smaller South Asian countries, and India. The most outspoken member of this new cluster of enemies is Iran. They are openly defying the will of George W. Bush and his friends.
You forgot to add most of South America, Europe and much of Asia.
Anti US books are selling very well in Britain and Japan as well.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Sun Feb 27, 2005 1:54 pm Post subject:
Does being in the G8 bring any benefits? If not, I don't think Putin gives a Fark. He's playing for power not titles. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
RdSnt, Caspian Sea is a political fiasco that is why investment has slow down there. The Southern Caucus nations are still seeing increasing investment.
I do not know what you mean by "Southern Caucus nations", but ExxonMobil is withdrawing from two projects in Azerbaijan (SW part of the Caspian Sea) not because of political instability, but because it did not find any oil.
ExxonMobil has refused to drill the second mandatory exploration well in Nakhichevan, said Khoshbakht Yusifzade, first vice president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The project will be closed. “Currently we and ExxonMobil are negotiating compensation [for project termination],” Reuters quoted Yusifzade as saying. A top manager at SOCAR said the talks for another Caspian project, Zafar-Mashal, have started. Exxon Azerbaijan Operating Company (EAOC) lost $150 million in Zafar-Mashal last year. In February of 2002, EAOC announced it spotted no substantial hydrocarbon reserves when it drilled the first exploration well up to the depth of over 6 km. ExxonMobile is the operator under Nakhichevan project. SOCAR is its parity partner under Nakhichevan and, along with ConocoPhillips, has interest in Zafar-Mashal project. According to the sources with the oil community, ExxonMobile will also withdraw from Zafar-Mashal, discouraged by the drilling results of the well, which turned out most expensive in the Caspian. Should it happen, Exxon will have to indemnify SOCAR for Zafar-Mashal to add to Nakhichevan project. link
Hrm... caucus mountain range.. any country bordering the mountain range. I guess I should just say countries in the Caspian Sea region to limit the number of countries. Sorry.
So Exxon is pulling out. But just Exxon exiting doesn't mean that we won't see an increase in oil production in that region. Exxon is a minor player in that region compare to BP. I don't know if Exxon has any proven reserves in that region. investments in that region besides pipelines and transport are: Shah Deniz, Tengiz, Kashagan fields, these are proven. More exploratory wells are needed for the other fields.
As for Caspian Sea politics, look at Iranian gunboats in this link: [url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/azerproj.html]/url] Now the estimates in there are not proven. They are speculative.
Production in the region should increase by 1.5mbpd by the end of this decade is my estimate. Anti-peak will say 3.5-5mbpd is what I heard. Impossible is what I think.
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Anti US books are selling very well in Britain and Japan as well.
