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a community peak oil portal
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| David Strahan: Pipe dreams |
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Despite forecasting an oil supply crunch and soaring prices, industry watchdogs are sticking to the line that production can go on rising
...The IEA's annual forecast has become steadily darker in recent years, but this time the deterioration in its outlook is dramatic. Only a year ago, the agency was predicting that global oil production in 2030 would reach 116m barrels per day, up from around 84mb/d, but now it has slashed that to 106mb/d.
At the same time, the agency has also doubled its oil price forecast. Last year, it said the cost of crude would fall in the long term, but now it predicts an average of $100 per barrel until 2015, despite the deepening recession, and rising to $120 in real terms by 2030. It concludes that the era of cheap oil is over and that the recent extreme price volatility will continue.
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| Energy Department, change is coming |
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DOE is expected to get shaken up under Obama's administration, playing a central role in its plans to move the economy to a greener future.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President-elect Barack Obama's pick for energy secretary will likely lead the department through a new era with a sharp focus on renewable energy, but who'll lead a revamped agency is far from clear.
Despite what some may think, the current Department of Energy isn't really about wind or solar power. It's not even about coal, oil or gas. Mainly, the agency is about nuclear - nuclear weapons to be exact.
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| Michael Moore: Saving the Big 3 for You and Me... |
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...So what to do? Members of Congress, here's what I propose:
1. Transporting Americans is and should be one of the most important functions our government must address. And because we are facing a massive economic, energy and environmental crisis, the new president and Congress must do what Franklin Roosevelt did when he was faced with a crisis (and ordered the auto industry to stop building cars and instead build tanks and planes): The Big 3 are, from this point forward, to build only cars that are not primarily dependent on oil and, more importantly to build trains, buses, subways and light rail (a corresponding public works project across the country will build the rail lines and tracks). This will not only save jobs, but create millions of new ones.
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| The Peak Oil Crisis: July 2008 – A Month To Remember |
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There is a growing consensus among those who follow such things, that the new high of world oil production (87.9 million barrels a day) reached last July is likely to go down in history as the all-time peak.
This is by no means a unanimous opinion.
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| Gulf Oil CEO says gas could hit $1 next year |
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rdsaltpower writes:
RANDOLPH —
Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski said on Wednesday that the price of oil could sink to $20 per barrel, and there is a chance gasoline prices could drop as low as $1 per gallon by early next year.
Speaking at a South Shore Chamber of Commerce breakfast at Lombardo’s in Randolph, the Brockton native said that after speculators drove oil prices up, there is a chance that the market will overshoot on the way back down, resulting in much lower prices at the pump.
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| US Stripper Wells More Important than OPEC? |
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US stripper wells will be the key to determining oil prices over the next couple of years rather than OPEC. Bernstein analysts Ben Dell and Neil McMahon made that argument in a presentation today. “It is quite interesting that OPEC is turning into a largely irrelevant organization,” McMahon said. From what we have seen of late he certainly has a point. OPEC has met three times this fall and is scheduled to confab once again on Dec. 17 in Algeria. It has announced 2 million barrels per day in cuts. Yet the price has now fallen more than 60% to the dreaded mid-$40s per barrel.
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| Richard Heinberg: Economists Without a Clue |
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Prepare to observe the spectacle of the two great economic paradigms of the twentieth century crashing to the ground, locked in mortal combat.
A hundred years past, markets ruled freely: fortunes were made, workers abused, bubbles blown. According to the Austrian School of economists, led by Ludwig von Mises, this was all as it should be: despite any temporary pain or inconvenience, the unfettered market always knows best how to allocate goods and organize investment and labor.
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| Humanity May Hold Key For Next Earth Evolution |
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vox_mundi writes: Human degradation of the environment has the potential to stall an ongoing process of planetary evolution, and even rewind the evolutionary clock to leave the planet habitable only by the bacteria that dominated billions of years of Earth’s history, Harvard geochemist Charles Langmuir said Thursday .
Langmuir described this planetary evolution as a series of steps and said there’s no guarantee that a planet will proceed from one to the next. Each step represents a moment of both crisis and opportunity. So far, the Earth has surmounted each step, while other planets, such as Mars, which may have once had microscopic life, failed to cross the evolutionary hurdle where life is sustained and becomes abundant.
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| Saudi May Cut Oil Supply More As Rest of OPEC Looks On |
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Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s surprise increase in official selling prices to Asia, a key market for the state-owned energy giant, may signal that the country is preparing for further reductions in oil supply.
Fellow Middle East producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have lowered OSPs in response to continued weakness in demand, and they have largely failed to adhere to the cartel's recent pledges to cut output.
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| Oil May Fall Below $25 Next Year, Merrill Lynch Says |
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(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.
Global oil demand will contract in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest since 1982, Merrill Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch said in a report today. In October, when oil was around $100 a barrel, the bank predicted that prices may slide to $50. Crude traded at $45.30 in New York today, the lowest since February 2005.
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| Groundbreaking study shows Canada can tackle climate change and prosper |
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Graeme writes: POZNAN, Poland, Dec. 4 /CNW/ - Canada can be a leader in tackling climate
change and still experience strong economic and employment growth according to
a groundbreaking study released today.
Deep Reductions, Strong Growth: An economic analysis showing Canada can
prosper economically while doing its share to prevent dangerous climate
change, shows that governments - and Ottawa in particular - can no longer
argue fighting climate change means job losses and declining standards of
living.
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| Point of No Return for the Arctic Climate? |
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Graeme writes: Temperatures in the Arctic are rising much faster than elsewhere in the world. Researchers now say it may be the result of a dramatic shift in global climate patterns. If they are right, ice at the North Pole may soon be a thing of the past.
...The new pattern of sudden climate change is characterized by "poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport," the authors write in the study, a transport which drives temperature increases in the Arctic. The discovery was made using specialized filters that allow one to follow changes to high pressure centers over time.
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| Mexico: The Next Disaster |
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Narco violence is exploding--just as oil prices are plunging and Mexico is bracing for a deep U.S. recession.
...Is Mexico descending into criminal and economic chaos? "Failed state? That is a very irresponsible remark," bristles Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambassador to the U.S. "The challenge of corruption is being taken on. We are rooting out people who have been infiltrated. Look at the role of the Mexican private sector and civil society. Nowhere can you see signs of anything akin to a failed state."
But there is urgent concern north of the border about a potential strategic threat. "We're fixated on Iraq and Afghanistan, but from a homeland security perspective, right here on our border, isn't this more important?" asks Fred Burton, a former State Department counterterrorism official, now a vice president at Stratfor in Austin, Tex.
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| Russia will cut gas supply if Ukraine does not pay: Putin |
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MOSCOW (AFP) – Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned Thursday that Russia would cut natural gas supplies that transit through Ukraine to Europe if Kiev does not pay its bills or siphons gas meant for other customers.
"If our partners do not fulfil their agreements, we will reduce deliveries," Putin said in a televised question-and-answer session with Russian citizens, referring to Ukraine.
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| 2nd biggest off shore wind farm in the world to be built off UK |
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One of the biggest offshore wind farms in the world is to be built eight miles of the North Wales coast, despite local protests.
The development of 250 turbines, each up to 540ft tall, will provide enough energy to power half a million homes.
It is the latest in a drive to see the UK source a fifth of its energy needs from the new technology.
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