That is exactly what happened in the summer of 2008, when oil prices surged to records of $147 a barrel as oil producers pumped as much oil as they could, but still failed to quench the thirst of the growing Chinese economy.


Despite the recent drop in demand, Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of Total, the French energy group, warns of more upheaval. “We are running the risk of another oil crisis when demand outstrips supply around 2014 or 2015,” he told Le Parisien newspaper in September.

The International Energy Agency, the rich countries’ watchdog, agrees. Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA’s executive director, told the G8 in Italy last spring: “The far-reaching effects the current financial and economic crisis will have on energy security and climate change, coupled with plunging investment, demand urgent and global action to put the world on a more sustainable path.”

The IEA warned that oil and gas investment budgets in 2009 had already been cut by a fifth, wiping out $100bn. From October 2008 to April 2009 alone, 20 planned projects valued at $170bn had been cancelled or deferred indefinitely,it said.

But several events have mitigated the danger of a supply crunch. Most importantly,the Opec oil cartel cut back its production and oil prices – which at the start of the year threatened to fall below $30 a barrel – have risen to around $70 a barrel.