The IEA is set to revise its long-term oil demand forecasts - for 2030 - downwards again this year, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing a person ‘familiar’ with the forecast, the WSJ story doesn’t give an number, but hints at two reasons: first quoting the source as referring to “demand-management policies” having a bigger than expected effect, and the drop in industrial production is apparently also a “big factor”.


The idea that oil demand might peak in the foreseeable future has been gaining ground this year — and not just because the recession is making it a dud year for oil demand growth. An Arthur D. Little report we wrote about in February floated the idea that energy security, environmental concerns and price volatility would have a far more powerful effect on long-term demand than is broadly thought. China’s plans for its energy future figured particularly strongly in this paper.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates chief Daniel Yergin, long sceptical of peak supply concerns, also maintains that global demand could peak in the next two decades.