Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 7:23 pm Post subject: Way beyond Peak
Hello all,
I believe we are way beyond peak.
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
It may be accurate to say that in the past, production mirrored reserves, yet with advances in production technology I believe that areas such as Saudi Arabia will go well beyond peak oil (midway point) before reaching a production peak.
To be exact I believe that a rate of 60-70% depletion or higher may be reached before production peak.
Rockdoc concurs that this is possible.
I believe Simmons also stated this as a possibility.
Thus we are probably way beyond peak.
Feel free to discuss
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
NEOPO wrote:
Hello all,
I believe we are way beyond peak.
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
It may be accurate to say that in the past, production mirrored reserves, yet with advances in production technology I believe that areas such as Saudi Arabia will go well beyond peak oil (midway point) before reaching a production peak.
To be exact I believe that a rate of 60-70% depletion or higher may be reached before production peak.
Rockdoc concurs that this is possible.
I believe Simmons also stated this as a possibility.
Thus we are probably way beyond peak.
Feel free to discuss
Goodluck and goodnight.
huh? and...if you're leaving...what's the point?
Isn't 'peak production', a defining characteristic of 'peak oil'?
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 7:49 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
The point is that....... I will return
I would have to say that Peak production HAS BEEN and will continue to be a defining characteristic of Peak oil for the small to medium deposits and even large deposits depleted by past technology.
I believe this concept predominantly applies to large desposits that have come of age with the best technology such as what you would find in SA.
Lets give this post a day to "season" and see what the reg's have to say.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
NEOPO wrote:
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
Um... my understanding is that these two concepts are indeed the same: Peak Oil means Peak Production. Doesn't necessarily have to happen precisely at the halfway point. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
I think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 1185 Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 10:03 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
Dreamtwister wrote:
I think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte.
True. And, in this case it's a sematics issue with big implications: Hubbert Peak Oil Theory vs 2006 Reality.
coyote wrote:
NEOPO wrote:
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
Um... my understanding is that these two concepts are indeed the same: Peak Oil means Peak Production. Doesn't necessarily have to happen precisely at the halfway point.
Again I think it's a semantics issue. Hubbert Peak Oil states that the midpoint of an oilfield usually coincides with the field's highest production due to field pressure, yielding a symmetrical production curve.
The reality it seems, is that technology has artificially proped up production rates without increasing the total amount recoverable by very much, thereby removing the link (in a big way) between global peak production and the midpoint of global recoverable reserves.
The problem is figuring out how much oil is actually left. Every field is different. Different geology, different production histories, etc. And thats why everyone looks to Hubbert's theory to predict. But the questions remain: on a global scale, if technology can delay global peak production past the midpoint of the reserves, then by how much, and how will that effect the average decline rate after factoring in new fields, EROEI, and the economics of scarce oil? _________________ "If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes
"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
turmoil wrote:
Dreamtwister wrote:
I think this is part of the reason why the mainstream media has such a hard time taking this issue seriously. Nobody can even agree on a definition for "Peak Oil", let alone agree on the specifics. You can't fit a thousand opinions into a 30 second soundbyte.
True. And, in this case it's a sematics issue with big implications: Hubbert Peak Oil Theory vs 2006 Reality.
coyote wrote:
NEOPO wrote:
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
Um... my understanding is that these two concepts are indeed the same: Peak Oil means Peak Production. Doesn't necessarily have to happen precisely at the halfway point.
Again I think it's a semantics issue. Hubbert Peak Oil states that the midpoint of an oilfield usually coincides with the field's highest production due to field pressure, yielding a symmetrical production curve.
The reality it seems, is that technology has artificially proped up production rates without increasing the total amount recoverable by very much, thereby removing the link (in a big way) between global peak production and the midpoint of global recoverable reserves.
The problem is figuring out how much oil is actually left. Every field is different. Different geology, different production histories, etc. And thats why everyone looks to Hubbert's theory to predict. But the questions remain: on a global scale, if technology can delay global peak production past the midpoint of the reserves, then by how much, and how will that effect the average decline rate after factoring in new fields, EROEI, and the economics of scarce oil?
Just as the recession of the 90's would have changed Hubberts Peak date I want to believe that advanced technology could change peak date if we were only looking at a production peak to indicate a real peak.
I agree that it would be hard to calculate yet with all the "missing" data it is very hard to calculate even the midway point or "peak" of world oil.
A 3-6% decline rate would be more like a 10-15% decline rate in this scenario.
I believe NET OIL, Peak oil and peak production not being the same and the ENERGY DENSITY of the remaining oil are factors that we need to look at more closely.
emailking wrote:
"I think he means more than half of the oil has been extracted, even though production rates haven't peaked yet. Is that right?.
Correct - not 50% or midway or peak oil but more like 60-70%.
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
Big hairy bump!!!
Ok here's more thoughts on why PEAK PRODUCTION is not exactly peak oil.
A company,country or individual may reach peak production for many reasons and on more the one occassion whereas peak oil is an event that occurs only once per area and only once collectively for the world.
We could say that everytime supply meets demand that we are at a temporary "peak" in production and this would/could have very little to do with the mid point of conventional petroleum depletion A.K.A "peak oil".
Countries have reached a peak in production and then a year or so later they come out of it and then a few years later they reach another peak in production.
Peak in the lower 48 will not be the same as SA or other areas.
Every situation is similar and still very different.
We are in error if we tie ourselves to only the "traditional" view that peak oil = peak production.
It is a good measure of fields found in the lower 48 produced with the same technology with similar methods etc etc....
Simply put SA is probaby well beyond peak as we speak and many other countries that were developed at the same time in technology etc etc will probably follow and through technology a peak in production will not occur until well past Peak oil for that region.
The north sea area and its reported rapid depletion rates might be a template or example for future expected depletion rates using the latest technologies coupled with todays need to get it our as fast as possible.
Yes a permanent peak in production does indicate peak oil but it does not indicate when midpoint was actually reached.
I do not believe we are at a permanent peak in oil production yet I do believe we are beyond the peak in conventional oil.
Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:03 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
Neopo,
I was reading on the Oildrum that "experts" predicted the North Sea wouldn't peak until 2010. As we all know, it peaked in 1999 and is in what most consider a considerable decline. I think the same can be said of the Yibel field, probably Burgan, and Cantarell. All that being said, it lends credence to Simmons warnings about SA. We are all placing all our eggs, or virtually, all of the eggs on SA (politicals aside) to be able to geologically increase production. If that estimate is wrong, we are in a lot of trouble. SA is reporting 8% depletion rates in older fields (see SA thread). Seems to be of some concern at least to me, that's depletion of 790,000 bpd based on 9.5 mbpd production. That's a lot of depletion to make up for.
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
seahorse,
Yes 8% does not align well with the much milder and generally accepted depletion rates of 3-6% which supports the proliferation of so many SOFT LANDING theories.
Bartlett - Magic number is 70 / 8 = 8.75 years until ZERO OIL!!! hypothetically speaking of course
So its 800,000 barrels this year and maybe 1 million next year.
Just to stay even...........and then there's rising demand.
Kill the demand and you still have a serious depletion issue.
8% certainly lends to the theory that countries like SA could be well beyond peak before production peak is reached.
3% then yeah maybe they have just reached peak or nearing it.
8% then yeah they are way beyond half way at least for those wells/regions/areas reporting this steep of a decline.
I want to add that even though I cannot square with Novus's computations on the NET OIL thread I do see how EROEI will only make things worse exponentially.
Joined: Dec 20, 2005 Posts: 174 Location: Costa Geriatrica
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
NEOPO wrote:
I believe peak production will occur well beyond peak oil and that these two concepts are most definately NOT the same.
All you are doing by suggesting this is muddying the water, by playing with words.
To most people Peak Oil *means* the peak of production i.e. the maximum flow rate achieved - maximum units of volume per unit of time, whatever units you want to use. The unit of time generally used is a year to eliminate the noise of short term spikes.
Thisgenerally happens, according to Peak Oil theory, when about half the resource has been used - but in the real world other factors intervene - when Peak Oil happens in relation to the percentage of resource used is not some hard and fast rule. The physics of oilfields which produces the pure Hubbert curve is not the only effect in play out in the real world.
Trying to drive a conceptual wedge between peak of production and Peak Oil is not useful and will just confuse the issue.
Quote:
A company, country or individual may reach peak production for many reasons and on more the one occasion
There is and can only ever be one highest mountain in the world, "Peak Mountain" = Mount Everest. I cant understand the logic of your statement .
For any finite resource where production starts at zero and at some future date ends at zero, there can ony ever be one peak of production, even if the difference between the peak and next highest point on the graph is only a cup per annum.
Logically, somewhere along the timeline between zero and zero there has to be a measurable highest point on the graph - the maximum rate of production. "on more the one occasion" doesnt come in to it.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2053 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
NEOPO wrote:
Bartlett - Magic number is 70 / 8 = 8.75 years until ZERO OIL!!! hypothetically speaking of course
Not even hypothetically speaking. The 8.75 years figure is for a 50% decline. You'd never get to zero oil, if you keep decreasing by a percentage less than 100.
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: Way beyond Peak
k skeptic,
Company X produced 3 mbpd in year one of our study.
This year they dropped to 2 mbpd during year two.
They did reach a Peak in production for this period in time.
Then in year three they go on to produce 3 mbpd again and in year four they produce 4 mbpd and then they plummet to 3 mbpd again in year five.
Its easy for me to see that Company X peaked twice in production over a 4-5 year period yet have they reached the mid point or peak oil?
They may peak numerous times on the way to "The highest peak they will ever attain" which is something we cannot rightfully judge until well after all has been said and done.
They could have less then half or more then half remaining.
Theoretically the U.S. could find 1 trillion barrels of SLC somewhere and then it would be said that the US temporarily peaked in 1970.......and then 20-30 years from now it would be noted that the US has peaked again and that they believe this time they it may be the last
Peak production aligning with Peak Oil is an observation not a rule.
I cannot see how this concept clouds these already muddy waters and I stand firm that this THEORY is correct.
I battled myself on this one - had bad dreams,cold sweats... etc etc
Now off to figure how a much lower EROEI world and a much lower ENERGY DENSE world at that....... will bring about the worse well before even the most doomer of predictions...muahahah muahahahahah
_________________
Thank you Tony.
What a brain fart that was
ANd to help clear the waters........
If all of SA goes into a 8% yearly decline then in 8.75 years they would be producing half as much as they are today.
Which is approx. 10 mbpd..... so in 8.75 years we could have 5 mbpd less just from SA which accounts for I believe about 12.5% of the worlds supply.
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