Banks sophisticated super-computers say guns > alt-energy

MattSavinar · Elite Joined: May 09, 2004 Posts: 1999

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2007/bankscomputers.html

Quote:

. . . the top investment banks' strategies to disproportionately invest in weapons technologies over new energy technologies has not been made "willy-nilly." Quite the contrary, these strategies have been informed by computer programs of almost unimaginable power.

It's worth noting that the companies using these super-computer programs are the same companies that, for all intents and purposes, determine who can afford to run for office at the state and national level.

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Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3252 Location: Maine

This is scary as hell Matt. I lived in Guatemala in the 80's and I saw what happens when you invest in weapons instead of infrastructure. It was a nightmare for the people who lived there. Meanwhile Costa Rica was installing water treatment plants and making it a better place to live. In the end Costa Rica's strategy was the far better one.

Computers don't make smart decisions, they just make the ones that will make the most money. Remember during the Vietnam war they would bomb villages based on the computer's decision about what percentage of people were the enemy? Look at how well that worked out.

"The point of all this is that the top investment banks' strategies to disproportionately invest in weapons technologies over new energy technologies has not been made "willy-nilly." Quite the contrary, these strategies have been informed by computer programs of almost unimaginable power." from your site

And the people making this decision exhibit almost unimaginable stupidity, in my humble opinion.
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MattSavinar · Elite Joined: May 09, 2004 Posts: 1999

Revi,

It seems stupid to you and me because we're not invested in weapons, at least not directly.

But if the ROI on weapons is considerably greater than the ROI on alt-energy, then where does the average person want his money invested?

If you're running a city or state's pension fund and you've got a lot of school teachers and firefighters depending on it . . . are you going to invest in something that earns 3% per year or something that earns 7% per year?

Not saying I'm happy with this, I think it is (obviously) is a horror show of the first order. Where this is going to land us is obvious, that's why I'm a hard crash dieoff doomer Jay Hanson disciple. But it's not "stupid", it's more coldly logical.

As far as the computers they were using in Vietnam, I don't doubt the veracity of that. I would like some links/articles to read if you have any.
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Ludi

"stupid" in the sense it will fail in the longer term; unless you think these investors will somehow be isolated from the ill effects of societal collapse.
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kpeavey · Expert Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 1243

weapons investing usually has another party somewhere which must also invest in weapons.
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TommyJefferson

"Past performance is not indicative of future results".

The reason Ron Paul is succeeding is that he draws support from a very politically diverse group of people who share a common goal; they want the US to stop spending trillions of dollars on the military. It's something people really, really want. Lots of people.

When the military contracts dry up, so will the high returns in that sector.

Alt. energy will become more profitable when the demand for it increases. That's when capital will chase it.

No force or welfare programs required.
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Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3252 Location: Maine

It seems like the alternative energy sector isn't doing so badly either. Evergreen Solar (ESLR) has gone up a lot this year. It's almost double what it was at the beginning of 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ESLR&t=1y

I wish I had bought this one, First Solar (FSLR):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&s=fslr
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lys3rg0

This is a very serious subject that warrants a lot of attention. We very rarely hear about this stuff, when we discuss the stock market we always think the PPT is behind the curtain pulling the strings. But the truth is that in today's market, most investment decisions are made by advanced genetic algorithms. Like every piece of software, they cannot actually think for themselves, they are only designed to simulate a certain behavior that is thought to be successful in a real world scenario. This requires huge databases and loads of "training" so these algorithms can evolve and the most profitable are then selcted and applied in making real investment decisions. I looked into neural networks and genetic algorithms myself while i was majoring in computer science (though for my own entertainment reasons - gambling applications and investing in sports betting markets), and i know someone that actually was good at it, started his own company and went on to work for big investment companies and even US defence contractors. He told me a few years ago that at that point about 80% of the market was litterally computer vs computer, with no human intervention whatsoever.

This of course begs the question of what kind of effects will result when people that cannot meaningfully model a certain market use software they don't understand. On a short term basis, you can't compete with computers, but on the longer term computers may not have the insight or foresight to see that they are burning down the house around them, since they are only programmed for immediate results and only for the benefit of the investor, not of society as a whole. If a certain algorithm actually picks up the fact that the whole market is going into ruin and tries to plan ahead, it will get beaten on the short term by the more narrowsighted competition, so every program that actually plans more than one or two quarters ahead will be discarded as obsolete. The computers won't care that everyone is freefalling, even while in the air they will still rate hitting the bottom last as better than preparing for the crash landing...

SILENTTODD

Tme to get your $$ out of banks and the stock market. And start investing in yourself!
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RonMN

Quote:
Computers don't make smart decisions, they just make the ones that will make the most money

Computer don't make any decisions at all.
They are nothing more than a vast series of on/off switches that calculate what they are told to calculate (programed).

Any computer/program will have the inherant flaw(s) of its programmer(s)...(I.E. look at the computer models of financials that said house prices would ALWAYS go up).

I know this seems like a trivial point, but I think of it every time I hear computers being blamed for our mis-givings.

It's equivelant to blaming the hammer for pounding the nail in wrong.
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TommyJefferson

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3117

Ibon

It is encouraging to see that collectively humans do seem to be acknowledging that they are in overshoot when you look at where investments are being focussed. We may be collectively smarter than we have assumed. How do you more quickly achieve a sustainable population. By increasing the resiliency of Kudzu Ape through investments in alternative energies or through investments that will quickly reduce our population to a sustainable number?
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Battle_Scarred_Galactico · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 970

Strength is the most important virtue, as it is strength which makes all other virtues possible.

Let me ask you, shall we have butter or guns?

Preparedness makes us powerfull, butter merely makes us fat.
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