EIA: U.S. Domestic Crude Production Depletion Rate: 0.7 %

LadyRuby

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006

The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2006 indicates that it expects U.S. domestic crude production to deplete at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent between 2004 and 2030 (table on page 11 for example).

This seems extremely optimistic, given that U.S. crude production peaked in about 1970, along with the steep declines we're seeing in some other areas. My calculations show that since about 1970 average annual crude production has declined by more than twice that rate, about 1.6%

What do you think?

UIUCstudent01 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 10, 2005 Posts: 894

I don't know about CO2 injection, but could that improve rates? (and total reserves?)
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linlithgowoil

america is a very interesting oil province. it certainly appears to confirm that with enough drilling and technology, you can really improve extraction rates and stave off depletion to a large extent also, though you cant stop it of course.

i think that, if the rest of the world was as extensively drilled as america, then peak oil wouldnt be a problem until the middle of this century. unfortunately, the rest of the world isnt as extensively drilled and wont be in the future either, so it doesnt really matter if there is actually enough reserves out there - if it isnt drilled/discovered and brought to market, it has no effect on peak oil.

i think this is something that people such as michael lynch are especially deluded on. they assume that the necessary drilling etc. shall take place. whereas i think it wont.

PeakOiler

Interesting. Just by looking at the US Crude production rate numbers given at EIA Crude Oil Section , oil production ending Feb. 4, 2005 was 5.433 mbpd and this year it was 4.903 mbpd.
So that's (4.903-5.433)/5.433 * 100 = -9.7% yoy.
Where is all that extra oil production going to come from?

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3692

LadyRuby

The other thing is that the EIA assumes a 2.3 percent annual increase in other domestic oil production, which from the text looks mostly like deepwater gulf of mexico.

But the EIA's data suggests that the GOM peaked in 2002 or 2003.

EIA Offshore PADD 3

If you use the same domestic depletion rate we've had since 1970, and for the GOM give them the benefit of the doubt and say that other crude production (GOM) will stay the same between now and 2030, then it looks like rather than importing 62% of petroleum by 2030, we'll be importing 77%. If GOM actually decreases at a similar rate to our other domestic oil, then we'd be importing about 81% by 2030.