In the foreseeable future, he said, production is coming down at the same time demand will be growing. He said China had doubled its demand for oil in 10 years and the demand will continue to grow.
Pickens, the founder of Mesa Petroleum Co., said demand is so tight that if Iran pulled one million barrels of oil off the market "you'll have $75 (a barrel) oil in 24 hours."
He also says a Congressman has accused him of talking up the price of oil. And he thinks Dubya's switch grass solution is ridiculous.
Pickens seems to be supporting the NY Times solution: raise taxes on gas on refund them via a reduction in the payroll tax.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:59 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
In a related story in the Daily Oklahoman, Pickens also sees NG prices going back up:
Quote:
As for natural gas, Pickens said prices probably will fall below $6 per thousand cubic feet because of warm weather and temporary oversupplies.
"But it won't stay there long," he warned.
If next winter is expected to be normal or colder than normal, the price quickly could climb back above $15.
A mixture of alternative energy sources eventually will reduce the demand for oil and natural gas, Pickens said. But in the meantime, alternative fuels and increased access to known oil reserves probably will not be enough to meet climbing demand. Higher prices may be the best way to prevent demand from continuing to outpace supply, Pickens said.
"In the past, price increases have only impacted demand briefly before it continued to trend upward," Pickens said. "But there will be a place where there will finally be a demand choker."
“I’m 100 percent a President Bush guy, but I fell out of my chair when he said wood chips and switchgrass ... are going to get us ethanol at a cheap price. I’m not sure you want ethanol. The emissions from ethanol are not good. You can’t do it efficiently or economically with corn. Ethanol is not the answer.”
“I don’t think anybody in this room will drive a hydrogen car. Hydrogen is a secondary fuel that has to be manufactured from somewhere.”
On environmentalists
“I can ask a room of 100 people how many of them are environmentalists, and everybody will raise their hands. Now for $1,000, how many are environmentalists? Nobody will raise their hands. I can get 20 people for $10. If you try to sell clean fuel, you can’t do it. It all goes by economics.”
On Arctic drilling
“Even if producers find 10 million barrels per day of oil in ANWR (the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge), you can only fit 2 million barrels per day through the pipeline. I don’t think ANWR is as big as people say. I’ve heard it could hold as much as 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which is more than Prudhoe Bay. I predict we won’t get over 4 billion barrels out of ANWR. That won’t save us.”
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 580 Location: Portugal
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:00 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.
I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:37 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
whereagles wrote:
$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.
I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.
Apples and oranges. What's your VMT there in Portugal, like 6 000 km/year? Americans drive 3-5 times that much in vehicles that are half as efficient as yours, mostly because they 'have to'.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6420 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:53 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
Five bucks will hardly have any effect.
We're addicted to bloated, oversized, gas-swilling vehicles. God knows what it'll take to get people out of their Suburbans. Most will have to be dragged out bodily, no matter what the price. We'll chain ourselves into our Escalades. We'll tape our hands to the wheels of our Navigators like suicide bombers.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:20 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:22 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
gego wrote:
When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?
Never fear, when the social security fund runs out, these little old ladies will be too busy panhandling for food and too poor to pay their AARP dues. I doubt AARP would continue lobbying on behalf of seniors out of altruistic intent.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:48 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
I wasn't sure from the article what Pickens meant when he called for a rise to $5/gallon. Worldwide, it certainly would cut consumption. In many Third World nations, that would eliminate gasoline use. (Ironically, many oil-producing countries like Iraq and Nigeria might find themselves priced out of the market.)
If he meant $5/gallon in the U.S., via increased gas taxes, refunded through a drop in a payroll tax...that would cut consumption, though perhaps not as much as he hopes.
Even $3/gallon made a difference. Public transportation use went up 7%, and even in Texas, people didn't want SUVs any more.
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 580 Location: Portugal
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:51 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
emersonbiggins wrote:
whereagles wrote:
$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.
I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.
Apples and oranges. What's your VMT there in Portugal, like 6 000 km/year? Americans drive 3-5 times that much in vehicles that are half as efficient as yours, mostly because they 'have to'.
Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.
Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:01 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
whereagles wrote:
Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.
You're missing the point. You have transit options in Europe, 'murkans aren't so lucky. If gas goes 3x higher in Europe, you have a fallback plan - take the train, bus or walk. Americans simply have no choice, because of the way we've been developing urban form in the last 60 years. If gas goes 6x higher in the U.S. (hell, even 2x higher), there will be massive political fallout, the ramifications of which will affect every part of our economy, much of which is predicated on endless suburban growth.
whereagles wrote:
Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.
You're preaching to the choir, my friend. I wish we had spent that 2 billion on TGVs and light rail, but, apparently, it wasn't my decision. Also, I drive a turbodiesel right now, so I can attest to attitude changes, but many Americans are so in debt to the hilt right now that trading in their bulky SUVs for a huge loss to pay a premium on a small, efficient car won't make sense for quite some time. And many families are too poor to envision such a choice. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:05 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
gego wrote:
When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?
Why the hell don't we have an association for the protection of productive people (APPP)? _________________ -Dac
Winners never quit and quiters never win, but those that never win and never quit are idiots.
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:08 am Post subject: Re: T. Boone Pickens calls for $5/gallon gas
whereagles wrote:
Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.
I doubt it. The other problems that come into play here are the fact that we also have to pay huge premiums for healthcare/insurance, most food/goods are trucked long distances and as fuel prices rose so prices in general would skyrocket (massive inflation). As far as Europe absorbing a tripling of fuel goes I don't know about you but I know several people in Germany for instance who would be impacted pretty hard by a tripling of fuel costs. I don't think theres as much "excess income" as you say.
whereagles wrote:
Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.
I agree completely. We have the means and the money (for now) to create a first rate light rail network/misc mass transit. But apparently not the will...
-G _________________ All right, you primitive screw-heads, listen up!
Last edited by gnm on Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:10 am; edited 1 time in total
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