Iran to miss 2010 oil output target

NTBKtrader · Intermediate Crude Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 591

Tehran, Aug 29: Iran will miss its 2010 crude oil production target by 500,000 million barrels per day (BPD) owing to a lack of investment in ageing oil fields, the press today quoted a top oil official as saying.

Crude oil production could reach 4.5 million BPD by the end of the state's fourth five-year development plan (2005-2010), well under the original production target of 5.0 million BPD, national Iranian Oil Company Managing Director Gholam Hossein Nozari said.

"We are not close to the 5.0 million BPD target of the fourth plan. More than 80 percent of the current total oil output is being provided from aged oil fields that need serious investment to increase production," he said.

He put the country's current oil production at 4.08 million BPD, which is 30,000 less than its OPEC quota.

The main challenge of OPEC number two oil producer, Nozari said, was "maintenance of oil reservoirs or increasing the recovery rate".

He announced that the country would soon put out tenders for exploration-development packages of 24 oil blocks.

http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=318772&sid=WOR

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3591

This calls for a graph.

According to the BP review, their production was about 4050 tbpd in 2005, so this really means that they will not be able to expand in any meaningful way. So, I estimated their production will peak next year at 4100 and then decline to 4000 by 2010. After 2010 I estimated a 3% decline per year, others can debate whether this is optimistic or not

On the demand side, their internal demand has been steadily growing at 2% per year. So, I estimated that this will continue.

What you can see is that right about now, Iran is consuming internally more than it exports, and also that by about 2022, give or take, Iran will cease to be a net oil exporter, unless their stepped up exploration programs manage to find some oil somewhere.

So, we repeat again: no wonder they need nuclear power.

note: the above demand and supply assumptions no longer apply if the nation is turned into a smoking ruin sometime between now and 2020.

seahorse2 · Expert Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1824

Pup,

Earlier, you graphed various scenarios on a peak in Opec production (I think Opec). How does this latest info on Iran, and your latest assumptions about Iran, effect your earlier graphs on a peak in Opec? If it all.

DantesPeak

I previously posted here an Iranian news article, with quotes from the top leadership in Iran in 2003, that they were developing nuclear power because they envisioned - in a few years or so - PO within their country. So far that 2003 story has been on the mark.

Sorry to mix up this up with what some may see as politics, but Iran needs nuclear power in the next decade (after 2010). I doubt they will easily give up the right to pursue nuclear energy development.

Raminagrobis · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 18, 2005 Posts: 25