For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 6:13 pm Post subject: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Let's assume that post-peak, the agricultural lifestyle is the main way of life in the world. I wanted to explore some possible roles besides the stupidly obvious one (farmer).
Priest/minister- I expect a world where life is harder to start to "find God" again. In our world, material goods and advanced science have replaced God. Also, after we lose our psychiatrists, zanex (and our other feel good drugs), and such, priests will become the main source for counseling and overall mental well-being.
Doctor/surgeon- Having a doctor, particularaly one who can do surgery, will be a major boon to the survival of your community. The doctor will probably be looked after very well, receiving choice food and housing. Even though the training of doctors in America is little more than a glorified sleep deprivation exercise, we still have a few good doctors.
Herbalist- When Merck goes down the tubes, having one of these fellows will make your doctor much more effective by his knowledge of curative plants and salves. If he knows how to make penicillin, that will be a remarkable boost to the standard of living.
Engineer- Can you say "Reinvent the Steam Engine"? If you have a few engineers, your little farming society might get into the 1800's so to speak. You'll have the potential for steam engines, roads, running water, and maybe even electricity.
Musicians- While superficially frivolous, someone with an instrument can cheer up gloomy townspeople during a bad winter or low harvest.
These are just a few I could think of quickly. Feel free to add and of course, comment. If you have a good role that I forgot, I will add it here.
I am also pondering if I should include a scholar. Having a villager with the works of Dumas, Dante, SHakespeare, the Bible etc would be an asset.
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
I think you've been reading too many doomer books.
If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Uninspired123 wrote:
I think you've been reading too many doomer books.
If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
Then in what year do you put wood stoves, pack animals, and such in?
Where are all the business majors and fitness instructors going? We graduate so many useless people in a society that will ahve to downsize. Also, we'll need to reduce the population.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Uninspired123 wrote:
I think you've been reading too many doomer books.
If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
Spoken like a true American.
Guy... most of your fellow humans live pretty close to the 1700's standard today. (Many much worse)
The rich will still exist of course... although that will be redefined too. Peak Oil means an expanded poverty footprint for mankind. More of you who "have" today... won't tomorrow.
A whole bunch more.
And you will be reduced to a poverty which is all but incomprehensible to modern Western sensibilities.
4%?
We wish... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:24 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Baldwin wrote:
Uninspired123 wrote:
I think you've been reading too many doomer books.
If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
Then in what year do you put wood stoves, pack animals, and such in?
Where are all the business majors and fitness instructors going? We graduate so many useless people in a society that will ahve to downsize. Also, we'll need to reduce the population.
I just didn't take much stock into your original post when you mentioned "herbalists" and " musicians" as necessary people. If they are necessary, then surely business people and fitness instructors are just as necessary. The business majors and fitness instructors will go whereever they have to to make money, if that means a career change then they will do it. I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Aaron wrote:
Uninspired123 wrote:
I think you've been reading too many doomer books.
If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
Spoken like a true American.
Guy... most of your fellow humans live pretty close to the 1700's standard today. (Many much worse)
The rich will still exist of course... although that will be redefined too. Peak Oil means an expanded poverty footprint for mankind. More of you who "have" today... won't tomorrow.
A whole bunch more.
And you will be reduced to a poverty which is all but incomprehensible to modern Western sensibilities.
4%?
We wish...
Why not 4%? Even though larger fields seem to be declining at high rates, the world has peaked and is dropping by less than those high rates.
And your point about people living in poverty now, well no crap. Of course people live in poverty now, why wouldn't I know that? I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me. I never said we wouldn't all be poorer, that's a given because there is less energy to go around to fuel all the things we want to do, but can't. I'm still saying we are going to be forced to downsize for a long time coming but there's no reason that it needs to be a crash and that fuel can't be prioritizied to shifting downwards.
You might say, "What will all those people do whose jobs you need to cut?" Good question, I have no idea. But I do think useful people like engineers, scientists, and doctors will become more valued in a post peak society where there is little fluff and no room for frivolous jobs. I myself am going to make myself as valuable as possible and have some real knowledge the best I can. As long as there is a rich class there are people who are going to cater to the rich class and I'm going to make sure I'm one of the people that does cater to them with knowledge I might have.
And you're guessing when you say we will be reduced to complete and total poverty. You just can't say it with certainty. The decline could be slower than possible on account of worldwide fear and furious drilling for a long time out. You never know.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Baldwin, you are forgetting the most important one "the warrior class"...... it will very important to have a good security in your community in order to have peace.
My VA Dr. and his wife who is a trauma nurse in the army (a Major) will be moving in with me WTSHTF...... he will be very important not only to the community but also for me in order to trade his (and hers) services for food.
As time goes by all of you will learn more about me but for now lets say that I can survive for the next 20 years with no outside help.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Uninspired123 wrote:
I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.
Oh, so peak oil is only an American problem?
I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Uninspired123 wrote:
I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.
If you are at the front of the line or one of the best, not impossible.
Otherwise, not so much. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
Ponce wrote:
Baldwin, you are forgetting the most important one "the warrior class"...... it will very important to have a good security in your community in order to have peace.
My VA Dr. and his wife who is a trauma nurse in the army (a Major) will be moving in with me WTSHTF...... he will be very important not only to the community but also for me in order to trade his (and hers) services for food.
As time goes by all of you will learn more about me but for now lets say that I can survive for the next 20 years with no outside help.
"Ifyoudon'tholdit,youdon'townit"...Ponce
"Tobereadyisnot"...Ponce
I actually didn't forget warriors. I thought of putting it down, but I figured that in a time of crisis, the farmers would become a town militia of sorts.
Quote:
I just didn't take much stock into your original post when you mentioned "herbalists" and " musicians" as necessary people. If they are necessary, then surely business people and fitness instructors are just as necessary. The business majors and fitness instructors will go whereever they have to to make money, if that means a career change then they will do it. I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.
Exactly what can a businessman trained to push papers at Deutschebank or HSBC know about an agrarian lifestyle? There is a bit more to farming then "plant seeds, water, pick, and eat".
Can anyone else see the value of an herbalist? It should be fairly lucid, since before CVS, that elderly lady down the lane was your pharmacist. She knew how to ID, pick, and prepare herbs for cuts, fevers, stomach trouble, and even abortions.
You neglect the value of musicians. ALl people need some scant form of entertainment. A flutist at Christmas dinner may be a significant morale booster.
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
MonteQuest wrote:
Uninspired123 wrote:
I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.
Oh, so peak oil is only an American problem?
I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.
Well in terms of how it affects me yes, it's an American problem. Just like how a Canadian should be worried how peak oil will affect him or her with respect to Canada. On a global scale, of course peak oil is the world's problem,but in terms of daily shipments, inventories, and supply lines, it's a local problem in my eyes.
Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 41 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:48 pm Post subject: Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...
MonteQuest wrote:
Uninspired123 wrote:
I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.
I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.
As for this in your post, I've been reading your opinions for months now Monte. I've been e-stalking you for a while and I know exactly where you stand and what you're going to say. You're going to say it takes energy to create new jobs, it takes energy to become more fuel efficient, money doesn't create energy, etc etc. I know, I've heard it.
What I dont get from you is your contention that we can NEVER equilibriate. Am I correct in that understanding?
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