How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: China Q1 2008 urban disposable income per capita up 11.5 pct
China Q1 2008 real urban disposable income per capita up 11.5 pct, rural up 18.5 pct
Quote:
Real disposable income per capita of China's urban residents rose 11.5 pct year-on-year in the three months to March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.
Real rural cash income per capita was up 18.5 pct during the quarter, the NBS said.
China's central government has singled out boosting rural incomes as a priority in its 11th five-year plan, which runs to 2010
The per-capita disposable income of the country's urban households rose 11.5 percent year on year in the first three months to 4,386 yuan (about US$626.6). However, after counting in inflation, the growth slowed to 3.4 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Friday.
So, real Chinese urban disposable income growth after inflation was up about 3.4%. Real Chinese rural disposable income growth was still up about 10.5%. That's not going to be enough for serious oil demand destruction in China.
Consider the following: Since January 2007, global crude oil prices have risen by 109%; gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by 77% (roughly apace); gasoline prices in China have risen only 9%.
Gasoline in the U.S. now sells for around $4 per gallon, but it sells for $2.49 per gallon in China. Beijing last raised domestic gasoline prices in November 2007, by 9%, and that was the first and only hike since January 2007, when crude was $87 per barrel. A recent rumor that China was about to lift its gasoline-price controls was quickly dismissed by Beijing.
Not much chance of seeing demand destruction with those conditions.
Add to that:
Quote:
The transportation industry uses about half of the gasoline and diesel in China, while ordinary motorists accounted for 7% of gas consumption in 2006, according to China International Capital. But the number of car owners is growing rapidly.
Quote:
Farmers, who are a major user of diesel, say they're struggling to buy fuel for their trucks, tractors and harvesting equipment. Some complain that the government's price control amounts to a subsidy for the rich who can afford to buy a car. Why not subsidize farmers directly, they wonder.
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I wasn't too clear on the term 'real income'.
