AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Left?

Graeme

The AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Left?

Newsseeker · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 12, 2005 Posts: 1226

Cooooornucopians!!!!

benzoil

I wish I could short that position.
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TANSTAAFL

Heineken

Just enough oil is left to ensure fatal global warming.

We've stuck the knife in deep, now we start twisting it.

Quicksilver · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 30, 2005 Posts: 80

A trillion barrel peak Laughing

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He who controls the spice controls the universe.

Graeme

This meeting was also reported by Richard Kerr in the 20 April issue of Science (V316 (5823):351). He says that 75 industry experts from 19 countries concluded that peak oil will occur around 2020 with a 20 year plateau following that before an inevitable decline in world oil production. This was their most likely “low resource” scenario. They had medium and high resource scenarios for peaks at 2030 and 2040 respectively. They considered these to be more difficult to achieve.

This analysis emphasizes the urgency for preparations to get underway for peak oil, but we already know that we have less than 10 years to lessen the effects of climate change.

Does anyone disagree with their analysis or have any comments?
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.

Heineken

Yes. Their projections (typical of those of "industry experts") seem far too optimistic, given today's razor-thin margin between production and demand, and the trends clearly in place that threaten to soon do away with any margin at all.

Based on everything I know, delaying "panic time" essentially to 2040---in the least optimistic scenario, no less---seems hugely unrealistic.

No one, especially the petroleum industry, wants to admit that the time to panic is now.

The industry is hopelessly, terminally biased---for sound business reasons.

Graeme

I take you point but they were talking about peak oil (ie mid point in world PRODUCTION). Can you be sure that demand will always exceed supply on a certain date?
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.

joewp

Graeme

Only in 2004 2005, according to the EIA. The market is tight though.

World Balance

Supply(t14)/Demand (t46)
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.