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turmoil
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Joined: Aug 13, 2004
Posts: 1185
Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
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 Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:23 pm Post subject: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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North Sea Brent Oil Daily Shipments Will Fall 21% in December (Bloomberg)
| Quote: | Daily shipments of North Sea Brent crude, part of the price benchmark for almost two-thirds of the world's oil, will drop by about 21 percent in December.
Tankers are set to load 161,677 barrels a day of Brent crude in December, down from 204,500 barrels a day scheduled for November, according to the loading program of field operator Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company. A total of 5.01 million barrels will be shipped next month, compared with 6.14 million barrels in November. |
Brent Crude Oil Exports May Plunge 17% Next Year (Bloomberg)
| Quote: | Exports of Brent crude, the North Sea's benchmark grade, may decline 17 percent next year, cutting U.K. petroleum revenue as exploration companies turn to more promising regions to boost oil supply.
Brent shipments from the Sullom Voe terminal in Scotland will fall to 108 cargoes of 600,000 barrels next year from 130 in 2007, according to a report prepared for a meeting of the Shetland Islands Council yesterday. Brent's decline is an indicator of U.K. oil output, which has dropped 44 percent since its 1999 peak. |
I'm sure some percentage of this production will be offset somewhere in the world, but this is not good for the UK unless the decline is offset by rising prices.
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"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6684
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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Keep your eyes on the road ahead of you, people. Do not look in the rear view mirror, no matter what.
You won't like what you'll see.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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mattduke
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 28, 2005
Posts: 1525
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:42 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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| Oh yeah. More Friday night news. |
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seldom_seen
Fission
Joined: Apr 12, 2005
Posts: 2046
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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Whoopsee Daisy. Double post.
Last edited by seldom_seen on Sat Nov 10, 2007 1:00 am; edited 1 time in total |
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seldom_seen
Fission
Joined: Apr 12, 2005
Posts: 2046
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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Yeah, but that's only a drop of 1 million barrels in a month?
What about hope? Why can't we run the interstate highway system on hope and good intentions? How about a hybrid that is fueled by faith and positive thinking? I bet GM is working on one now.
<seldom reaches for his copy of "The Secret."> |
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advancedatheist
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Posts: 171
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 1:23 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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Any guesses on how the oil market will respond to this news next week?
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"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on Stargate SG-1. |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3809
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 2:20 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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| Quote: | | 161,677 barrels a day of Brent crude in December, down from 204,500 barrels a day scheduled for November |
Not to minimize this, but it's only about .04 million barrels per day, compared to 4 million for the whole north sea area, so in the grand scheme of things, it's roundoff error. It is significant because it is Brent which is one of the benchmark grades for pricing.
A number of other grades come from this region.
Skrebowski
Here is a presentation from Skrebowski from 2003 about what things were supposed to be like in 2007, and he was about right. He is calling for around 4 mbo/d total. Norway, UK and Denmark total about 4.081 according to the current report.
So we are only talking about 1% of the total or so, which would be 12% annualized, which is about what it has been declining for the last couple of years anyway in this region.
Last edited by pup55 on Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:54 am; edited 1 time in total |
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EndOfGrowth
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 04, 2006
Posts: 249
Location: End of the plateau
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| Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 7:05 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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It looks like the uk motorist can expect further tax hikes on fuel in the coming months to make up for lost oil revenues. Couple this with $100 crude and the national average for 1 litre of unleaded will exceed £1.05 and £1.10 for diesel. I can see more refinery blockades 
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No-Oil
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 31, 2004
Posts: 243
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 6:54 am Post subject: Re: Brent Crude Exports Set To Crash. (Uh oh) |
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It is estimated that every UK tax payer has benefited from a 10p reduction in income tax because of UK North Sea oil revenues for the last 20+ years. The decline in production which was 20% this year in 10months according to some sources (RBS Bank) could have major implications for the UK over the next few years, because if the decline rate remains constant, we could stop producing meaningful amounts of oil in 4-5years time. Thus we will lose the tax dividend & at the same time have to pay increased costs for imports on the open market!!!!
Hold on to your hats, the kack is heading for the rotary oscillator.
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