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Peakoil.com :: View topic - why do people expect food to stay in US?
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why do people expect food to stay in US?

 
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markcl
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:09 am    Post subject: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

If China or any other country holding us$ is willing to pay for food, what is to stop them from buying every ton to dump us$ and store for their people?
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Gerben
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:22 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

1. Many countries already have food in storage.
2. Food is perishable.
3. Lack of free storage room.
4. Food doesn't pay interest.
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HorneyGeekBoi
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:26 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Like with ethanol fuel, the more of a certain item you buy, the less there is, therefor the more expensive it becomes. China has no need to try and just buy up all the food in the world, and if that happened there would be rationing soon after the price became too high to prevent people rioting.

If you try to buy up a single commodity till it runs out, the first and second things that happen is the price increases and people try to use alternatives. Lets not remember how dependant china are on the US economy and exporting all their goods. Why would you want to ruin the economy of your main trading partner. An america where people are impoverished and lacking food arernt going to have much disposable income. Not to suggest the american economy will simply tank, they will probably try and stop it. In any case, china may as well dump all its dollars onto the market if it wanted to screw things up.
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:38 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

1. people in america have guns and a percentage of those who have them know how to use them.

2. politicians value their lives, congressmen (and women) are not paid enough to have effective 24/7 security.

3. When a dad who has and knows how to use a weapon watches his children starve to death he becomes dangerous to said congress people

4. Congress people pass a law to keep the food here, by whatever means necessary.

All politics is local and possession in 9/10ths of the law. They hold dollars as part of an agreement, we are fully capable of breaking that agreement when the benefits of breaking it outweigh the costs of breaking it.

We will keep food here because it is in the interests of the powers that be to keep it here.

Nothing here should be read as an advocasy of violence.... but as a belief that we americans are more able to resort to violence if we feel the need.
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The sage places himself after and finds himself before,
Ignores his desire and finds himself content.

He is complete because he does not serve himself. -Lao Tze
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Andrew_S
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:48 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

markcl wrote:
If China or any other country holding us$ is willing to pay for food, what is to stop them from buying every ton to dump us$ and store for their people?
This is the one of the best questions I've heard in a long time. I hope our economics guys (some of whom hang out mostly in the economics forum) will see this and answer (I couldn't even try a plausible answer).

How about the same sort of question about oil? i.e. they try to outbid. Same problems, I guess.
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Andrew_S
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:05 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
We will keep food here because it is in the interests of the powers that be to keep it here.
Your answer as a whole was fairly good in so far as it went. But in the limit it could become a question of Oil for Food or full-scale war with its attendant risks (the Russkies still do have ICBMs and even if a high proportion fail, that's still more than enough).

With this question I think the thread starter has teased out, in a way one can feel at the personal level, the essence of current and future power politics. Most of the remaining global resources lie in one part of the world - Western Asia.


Last edited by Andrew_S on Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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gnm
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:06 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

~SHIPPING~

If there was a global fuel/oil/food crisis the US has plenty of oil to keep the farms humming. With shipping fuel at a premium only excess food would be shipped (and only if profitable) given the costs.

That and what the other poster said about keeping civil unrest to a minimum.

-G
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Andrew_S
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:24 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

gnm wrote:
~SHIPPING~

If there was a global fuel/oil/food crisis the US has plenty of oil to keep the farms humming. With shipping fuel at a premium only excess food would be shipped (and only if profitable) given the costs.

That and what the other poster said about keeping civil unrest to a minimum.

-G
True. And in the same breath you say that the U.S.A. can powerdown Very Happy . Of course it can and keep up food production (well enough for some decades at least and maybe restructure in the meantime).

As far as the foreign owned debt goes, it would merely require a default on national debt or a big devaluation. Maybe the latter process is underway.
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oldstyle
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 3:02 pm    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I have read the text's from FerFal a few times and one of the things that made alot of sense to me when I read it was his description of how this exact thing occured in Argentina.

Historically there was plenty of food, in fact the country fed not only themselves but much of Europe during the past with a huge export business. Large food producers monopolized the industry pushing out the local smaller farmers. After the economic crash it became financially more lucrative to sell food outside of the country where it would bring higher prices. Essentially, if the local currency devalues and you have the option of selling bread for 1 dollar locally, or 10 dollars remotely with a 3 dollar shipping cost *ANY* company would take the 700% increase in profits. By law in the United States a corporation exists only for the sake of shareholders and if a company did not make steps to maximize profits they likely would be sued by shareholders. I can easily see this situation occuring in the US if the situation is slow deteriorization. When things change slowly over time we seem to be blind to them and do not react the way we would if it was overnight.
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gnm
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:35 pm    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Andrew_S wrote:
True. And in the same breath you say that the U.S.A. can powerdown Very Happy . Of course it can and keep up food production (well enough for some decades at least and maybe restructure in the meantime).

As far as the foreign owned debt goes, it would merely require a default on national debt or a big devaluation. Maybe the latter process is underway.


Well I didn't mean to imply that the US could powerdown succesfully, only that it could keep the farms humming... As far as the rest goes I figure all the unemployed former wal mart shoppers might make good (food for labor) farm hands. That or guards to keep off the zombie masses so the rich can have ethanol for their cars.

-G
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vfr
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 9:41 am    Post subject: Re: why do people expect food to stay in US? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

markcl wrote:
If China or any other country holding us$ is willing to pay for food, what is to stop them from buying every ton to dump us$ and store for their people?


I'm more worried about how our diets will change when the planes can't fly it in any longer.

V
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