I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:10 am Post subject: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and $85
Quote:
In an interview with lastoilshock.com, Mr Groppe went on to argue that Saudi Arabia can maintain current production for up to two decades, global peak oil will come in 2008, but that prices will nevertheless remain between $65 and $85 per barrel until around 2015.
[...]
That's because around 15 mb/d of oil consumption in the developing world is still used for electricity generation and other non-transport purposes for which there are much cheaper alternatives such as coal.
[...]
It was the elimination of this kind of oil use in the US and Europe that led global oil consumption to drop by 8 mb/d between 1980 and 1985.
[...]
Groppe is a Houston-based contemporary of M. King Hubbert who founded the consultancy Groppe, Long, Littell over 50 years ago, and who claims to have forecast every major discontinuity in the oil market since then.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:30 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Oh man, this is rich.
Listening to the Groppe interview, he says something along the lines of: OPEC has its own secretariat figuring out supply and demand balances, but in reality they just take the IEA numbers and tweak them around a little, and that's what OPEC is operating on.
_________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:36 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Strahan: So everthing that's been shocking the oil market and getting everybody talking over the last few months, in fact has been because the Saudis mistakenly relied on the IEA's overoptimistic forecasts, is what you're saying?
Groppe: Exactly, exactly.
_________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Well, if Groppe is right, prices rocketed because the Saudis made a giant cut as they belived the IEA who said non-OPEC supply would grow at its fastest pace since 1984.
And of course it didn't. This is just so farking hilarious and shows what a farce the oil market is. For those of you who haven't read it and want some more surreal reading, check this out: http://www.energybulletin.net/1036.html
Quote:
From his spare office over a grocery store in Geneva, Conrad Gerber can sway world oil markets. Mr Gerber runs a small firm, Petro-Logistics, that collects and analyses data on the world's supplies of oil. His confidential reports, which cost his select list of clients as much as $ 5,000 a month, often find their way into the business press, typically causing jumps or dips in the volatile petroleum markets.
Mr Gerber freely admits that he first learned about the oil business in the 1970's when he was helping his country, then known as Rhodesia and now called Zimbabwe, to circumvent international sanctions and procure illegal oil. Combining the skills of a contraband trader with those of a spy, he acknowledges that his company uses tricks from intelligence work to pierce the curtain of secrecy raised by oil-producing countries, especially the members of OPEC in the Persian Gulf.
[...]
Mr Gerber worked as an economist in the government of Rhodesia. He started his company in 1980, shortly after the United Nations lifted sanctions against the country. Among his business associates and friends, Mr Gerber counted Theodore G. Shackley, one of the CIA's most famous spymasters, who led efforts to battle Fidel Castro when he was station chief in Miami in the early 1960's. Mr Shackley engaged in some oil trading after he retired from the CIA in 1979. Mr Gerber said he was at Mr Shackley's bedside just before he died last year.
The funniest thing is that Mr. Gerber could have invented all his tanker tracker spies and is just sitting in his little Geneva grocery store, swaying the world oil markets while dragging the numbers out of his ass, and no one would notice it. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:45 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
If it's cheaper for third world countries to use coal instead of oil for electrical generation then why haven't they done so already? Something does not add up here.
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:09 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
This is absolutely nonsense for 2 reasons :
1) Oil is at 97,70$ now
2) More complicated. Oil price is not the only thing we have to watch carrefully, especially when the dollar is crashing as we speak. If world economy enters in a 1929 depression or worse (which it will before 2010 IMHO) in 2008, oil price could plunge to 40$ a barrel. At this time, I don't think you'll have the time to argue about oil price, you'll be too busy waiting in line with the neighbourhood for this tasty onion soup.
Joined: Sep 13, 2005 Posts: 1250 Location: Just the right place
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Sys1 wrote:
Quote:
2) More complicated. Oil price is not the only thing we have to watch carrefully, especially when the dollar is crashing as we speak. If world economy enters in a 1929 depression or worse (which it will before 2010 IMHO) in 2008, oil price could plunge to 40$ a barrel. At this time, I don't think you'll have the time to argue about oil price, you'll be too busy waiting in line with the neighbourhood for this tasty onion soup.
Never going to happen ! Like it or not, the Dollar, although it is continuing to drop, is still the worlds most stable and widely used currency, and all the G8 as well as the UN (including the security counsel) is aware of this. US multinational banks control all the computer networks and infastructure to put money into circulation and take it out - They alone control the global currency markets. Eventually we will most likely see a merged currency that is all tied together.
As the dollar goes so will go the rest of the world, Bernanke and TPTB will never allow a monetary even like the great depression happen again if it is in there power to do so, and that will include destrorying emerging and third world economies with currency warfare, which is exactly what we see now. There are and always will be people eating in modern day bread lines, will we see more ? certainly, but the United States, like it or not, still controls the world both economically and militarily - And everybody knows that.
It is nobodies best interest to crash the economy - We are entering into a time of corporate facism and the more money in circulation the more they get to control.
Until they run us off the cliff. (which I agree will happen one day).
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 741 Location: Illinois
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
slick50 wrote:
If it's cheaper for third world countries to use coal instead of oil for electrical generation then why haven't they done so already? Something does not add up here.
Because it takes time to build new coal power plants. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Also, coal may be cheaper if you have your own coalfields, but I would guess not so cheap if you have to truck/train it in over long distances from foreign sources.
Oil is more energy dense, there are established distribution networks, it can be moved around more easily. In short - it used to be simpler to build oil fired generators than coal.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3623 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:07 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Starvid wrote:
The funniest thing is that Mr. Gerber could have invented all his tanker tracker spies and is just sitting in his little Geneva grocery store, swaying the world oil markets while dragging the numbers out of his ass, and no one would notice it.
Matt Simmons has some interesting comments towards the end of the video A High Risk Barrel about the insane way oil is traded and bought.
Don't think Gerber would have had much of a business if his observations didn't jibe with reality on some level.
Funny notion of OPEC following the IEA's lead. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:18 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
slick50 wrote:
If it's cheaper for third world countries to use coal instead of oil for electrical generation then why haven't they done so already? Something does not add up here.
Duh, because building new power plants or converting old ones takes time and capital. It's a gradual process.
China is building one new coal fired power plant every week. This is the largest expansion of coal power and coal mining in history. Guess why? Because two thirds of their oil use is in industry and power generation. That's changing. This will allow a growing oil use in transportation in spite of flat or falling oil production.
One BOE in coal is $10-15. Oil is relatively expensive energy. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:23 am Post subject: Re: Oil to peak in 2008 - but price to stay between $65 and
Sys1 wrote:
More complicated. Oil price is not the only thing we have to watch carrefully, especially when the dollar is crashing as we speak. If world economy enters in a 1929 depression or worse (which it will before 2010 IMHO) in 2008, oil price could plunge to 40$ a barrel. At this time, I don't think you'll have the time to argue about oil price, you'll be too busy waiting in line with the neighbourhood for this tasty onion soup.
Categorical statements like these are more hope than reality. The global economy might go really bad, or it might survive the current problems without much ado. Not even the best economists are sure in any way.
So this says more about your apornocalypsical fantasies than about reality. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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