"Oil Barrel Pyramid Model" by M_B_S : Peak 2011

M_B_S · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2005 Posts: 272

"Pyramid of Crude Oil - Pyramid of Conscience Series," 2005
http://www.asci.org/druck749.html
Pyramid Volume Theorem

The volume V of any pyramid with height h and a base with area B is equal to one-third the product of the height and the area of the base.

Formula: V = (1/3)Bh

Input

1. US production curve

2. Former USSR production curve

3. Maximum of US oil production ~ 220 Gb in 200 years 1850-2050

4. Maximum b/d US = ~ 9 mio. b/d

5. Maximum of USSR oil production ~ 300 Gb in 200 years

6. Maximum b/d USSR = ~ 12 mio b/d

7. Earth landmass : 146 * 10^6 km²

8. US landmass : 9,36 *10^6 km²

9. Former USSR landmass : 22,4 * 10^6 km²

10. World Oil discoveries curve

Calculation: world oil reserve
==================================

From basis USA production curve , time = 200 years 1850-2050

x axis= time in years ; y axis = barrel/day

a) first print a triangle over the curve with point

A(x,y)= (1850,0)
B(x,y)= (2050,0)
C(x,y)= (1973, 9*10^6 b/d,) maximum

z= days

Now we calculate the volume of the "US Oil Barrel Pyramid"

1/3 (200*365d)* 9*10^6 b/d = 219 Gb

Total earth oil reserves with

219 Gb_USA : 9,36*10^6 km² = Gb_Earth : 149*10^6 km²

=> Gb_Earth = 3502 Gb Exclamation

The volume of the former "USSR Oil Barrel Pyramide"

1/3* (200*365d) * 12*10^6 b/d = 292 Gb

292 Gb_USSR : 22,4*10^6 km² = Gb_Earth : 149*10^6 km²

=> Gb_Earth = 1942 Gb Exclamation

We can calculate the weighted average

2.4 landmass USA = 1 landmass USSR

=> Gb_Earth= ~2400 Gb

================================================
"Earth Discoveries Barrel Pyramid"

ASPO

Time = 100 Years 1930-2030

Volume 1/3 * 55 Gb/a *100a= 1833 Gb

(With time = 200 Years => 3666 Gb (not realistic )

Every state have its own "Oil Barrel Pyramid" so the whole world!

=>
Oil depletion midpoint

1833 Gb /2 = 916.5 Gb

Consumption Pyramid, Time 1930-2007 = 77 years

1/3*77a * 30 Gb = 770Gb

=> 770 + years*30Gb = 916.5 Gb

=> 4,86 years

=> Oil Depletion Midpoint year is 2011-12

M_B_S

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

Not bad.

What happens if you are off by a factor of, say 10% on the reserves estimate? How does the midpoint change?

I think the apex of the pyramid is always over the midpoint of the base.

M_B_S · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2005 Posts: 272

What happens if you are off by a factor of, say 10% on the reserves estimate? How does the midpoint change?

200GB+/2 = 100 Gb+ = 3,33 Years+ (simple 100Gb:30Gb/a)

I think the apex of the pyramid is always over the midpoint of the base.[/quote]

No, when the base is an irregular polygon // inclined pyramide

Since pyramids with equal base and height have the same volume, the volume of every pyramid is

V = Bh/3.

Cavalieri's Principle

M_B_S · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2005 Posts: 272

USGS have an Ressource Pyramide Model but with a different intention

http://www.geotimes.org/nov02/feature_oil.html

The resource pyramid: The pyramid charts the economic feasibility of an area’s petroleum reserves. It shows a small volume of prime resource at top and, at bottom, larger volumes of lower quality resources that are more expensive to extract. The amount and nature of occurrence of oil and gas near the base of the pyramid is not well understood. Assessments slice through the pyramid, defining only resources that have economic potential within the foreseeable future. USGS image.

And M. Simmons in:

THE WORLD’S GIANT OILFIELDS
*How Many Exist?
*How Much Do they Produce?
*How Fast Are They Declining?
by
Matthew R. Simmons

USGS 1995

***************************************************
mathematical proof

by

M_B_S

CU

Its your turn....Ressource Pyramid McCabe, P.J., 1998,

WebHubbleTelescope · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 08, 2004 Posts: 909

Why does it have to be a pyramid? It could be a tetrahedron or some other cube-like geometry.
In other words, I think this is just a sampling exercise in creating ratios between the different land masses. This has been verified at TheOilDrum.com by at least one person.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/13/121414/045#1

M_B_S · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2005 Posts: 272

Why a pyramid?

The answer is simple:

It is and was the ressource model

M_B_S

M_B_S · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2005 Posts: 272

OK lets do some mathematic

Question: Peak Oil in 2006? German EWG

Input

Pyramid Model by M_B_S

Time = 200 years (1850-2050 oil production)

=> Peak 2006 was 30 Gb/year

1/3 Bh = URR

<=> 1/3 *200y*30 Gb/y = URR

<=> URR = 2000 Gb

Answer:

Peak Oil was in 2006 if URR = 2000 Gb Exclamation

M_B_S Oil Barrel Pyramid Model

Exclamation