I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2731 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 2:18 am Post subject: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply
President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply
Quote:
In an ABC Nightline interview, President Bush recently said of Saudi Arabia, "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do." According to TheOilDrum.com, this statement seems to indicate that George W. Bush, like many others, is skeptical of Saudi oil production claims. Forecasts of future world oil production by official organization like the IEA and the EIA assume OPEC can increase production by any desired amount; if OPEC's capability is limited, official production forecasts are optimistic because they are based on false assumptions.
If what President Bush is saying is true -- that Saudi Arabia really can't increase production much -- President Bush's statement should start to raise questions about the reasonableness of future world oil production estimates by EIA and IEA. Without the ability to Call on OPEC, demand quickly outpaces supply. Peak oil in the next few years is likely as well, if we cannot rely on the Middle-East to ramp up production.
yahoo _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 2:32 am Post subject: Re: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supp
The Saudi's have tons of oil, 260 billion barrels to be exact. Everybody knows this, Lynch and Yergin, the brains from IEA, EIA, USGS, and the all the lastest and greatest debunkers here at peak oil.
The only ignorant ones are us peak oil doomers and GWB. What strange bedfellows. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2731 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 3:46 am Post subject: Re: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supp
I don't think there are many who doubt that oil is finite. What is disputed is the rate of decline of oil production, the timing and consequences of peak oil.
I regard myself as "peaklite", i.e., someone who thinks that peak oil is not far away, and also thinks that the consequences will not be too severe because our society will adapt to changing circumstances. But I'm really hoping for the best outcome because the future is unpredictable. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supp
Twilight wrote:
What is also disputed is the quantity. They lied.
Yeah, most likely the original reserve estimates are closest to the truth.
It's likely they've all been lying! Unedited image:http://i7.tinypic.com/86rc8d1.gif
The OPEC partners established a quota system, so member countries could only pump a percentage of their total reserves. Then all the OPEC partners readjusted their reserve estimates very optimistically, probably so they could increase their extraction rate under OPEC rules and get special deals on loans. Here's a wiki...
wiki wrote:
Suspicious official estimates of oil reserves from OPEC countries
The OPEC countries decided in 1985 to link their production quotas to their reserves. What then seemed wise provoked important increases of the estimates in order to increase their production rights. This also permits the ability to obtain bigger loans at lower interest rates. This is a suspected reason for the reserves rise of Iraq in 1983, then at war with Iran.
In fact, Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior executive of the National Iranian Oil Company, has stated unequivocally that OPEC's oil reserves (notably Iran's) are grossly overstated.
Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-PIW
(Jan 20, 2006)
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - OPEC producer Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officially stated, according to internal Kuwaiti records seen by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW).
"PIW learns from sources that Kuwait's actual oil reserves, which are officially stated at around 99 billion barrels, or close to 10 percent of the global total, are a good deal lower, according to internal Kuwaiti records," the weekly PIW reported on Friday.
It said that according to data circulated in Kuwait Oil Co
(KOC), the upstream arm of state Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Kuwait's remaining proven and non-proven oil reserves are about 48 billion barrels.
Officials from KOC were not immediately available for comment to Reuters.
PIW said the official public Kuwaiti figures do not distinguish between proven, probable and possible reserves.
But it said the data it had seen show that of the current remaining 48 billion barrels of proven and non-proven reserves, only about 24 billion barrels are so far fully proven -- 15 billion in its biggest oilfield Burgan.
So Kuwait probably has between 24 and 48 billion barrels, much less then 99 billion barrels. And 48 billion barrels would be close to the original estimates.
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 177 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supp
steam_cannon wrote:
Yeah, most likely the original reserve estimates are closest to the truth.
All Peak Oil-estimates around '05-'10 are based upon these original reserve estimates right? And the '40 PO estimate of the USGS is based on the official OPEC reserves estimates.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2731 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supp
Other questions disputed are amounts of oil yet to be discovered, and volumes recovered by new techniques. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
