Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: Goldman Sachs Report
I have not seen this report posted anywhere. I think this is as good a forecast for near term and long term prices and the problems in supply/demand as I have seen. It makes a compelling case for a near term pullback, but a long term increase to $148/bbl.
http://www.odac-info.org/sites/odac.postcarbon.org/files/Energy_Watch.pdf
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 9:01 am Post subject: Re: Goldman Sachs Report
I wouldn't be surprised at a pullback, to perhaps say $100. The price is not going to go up steadily after all, there will be spikes upwards and spikes downwards. The trend is definitely sharply upwards though.
I think we will reach $148 this year, perhaps within just a few months. Things suggest that the terminal decline in word oil production is almost here, if not already here. The signs lately are ominous and once the decline sets in even the price increases of the last few years are going to be outdated with regards to predicting the price from here. There are already signs the oil price rises have entered a new, different phase, more rapid than before, suggesting a tipping point into the new reality many have been predicting for all these years.
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