Are people dumb? EIA Production Figures and Oil Pricing

mefistofeles · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 21, 2005 Posts: 194

Anyway this weekend I showed a few people the EIA production figures.

EIA Global Production Download table 4.4

What the tables say is that production has been flat from 2005-2007 ,despite the price of oil more than doubling from $37/barrel to $89/barrel. Although we its impossible to say with absolute certainty that we have hit peak the evidence is quite convincing. Also official EIA figures indicate that demand is outstripping supply.

Anyway looking at this data I would assume that everyone would come to the same conclusion that I did: that oil is underpriced and will probably go up far more.

I was absolutely shocked when intelligent and successful people who make millions dollars gave me outrageous answers:

"Oil will go back down to $80.00"
"Its because of the weak dollar."
"Has oil hit its peak?"
"The Saudi's are limiting production."

Am I really that brilliant or people really that dumb about energy? Maybe my assumption is really radical but this what I think: when demand outstrips the price must go up!

Of course being more charitable the behavioural economist in me would say that people have a reference price that they believes products should be priced at. Hence the surprise when oil hits $118.00 a barrel.

Has anyone every been in the same situation and just been stunned by people's reaction to peakoil and its implications for oil pricing?

BigTex

At least your respondents had a little diversity in their responses.

What I usually hear from people is something to the effect of "I sure will be glad when the government does something about these high gas prices."
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Smile

vision-master

Last night on Nova they said we have burned 25% of all oil reserves within the last 10 years.

BigTex

peasea · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 26, 2007 Posts: 48

ahwell, classic lines from the EIA or was that the IEA ?? Smile

people are not "dumb" , they follow footy , shop at supermarkets , and expect the "government " to look after them . Their too busy with their little lives because thats all they've got.

( Rome - bread and circusses - Cesar knew the score)

Please don't look down on them - from them come the greats of human culture and civilization. Einstein, newton ( no , not Paris hilton !) and the like.

Its the ones supposidly in charge, politicians, the great thinkers , the big bisiness men - they are the ones we should be afraid of and need to convince that their wheeling and dealing is bringing the whole shebang down about all our ears......

God, we really aren't smarter than yeast , are we ?

P.

Nano

Cid_Yama

I was reading an article about Onion, and one of their spoofs was a poll about what issues people "would most like to care about".

That about summed it up for me. We're doomed.
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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3574

auscanman

I'm convinced that just about everyone in the developed world has a pathological inability to grasp the fact that we live in a finite world. The reactions of people when they feel their oil entitlement is threatened are something truly scary and irrational (as the posts on here attest to)... the mob mentality. I agree with Kunstler that the middle class in most developed countries will turn to fascism once their way of life is impossible to maintain. They'll have to have someone other than themselves to blame (and probably kill), and the irrational thought of the possibility of returning to their former lifestyle will be preferable to cooperating and making do with less.

BigTex

mefistofeles · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 21, 2005 Posts: 194

Cid_Yama

it sounds as if people make the choice to be willfully ignorant.

That's how Denial works. Unfortunately, although it reduces stress levels, it decreases survival chances in the long run.

How the heck that ever got selected for in the course of evolution, I'ld like to have someone explain to me.

I do understand though. Many of the posters here are young adults. They are being given evidence daily that the chance of them living a full life are pretty slim, let alone their children. They are being told that if somehow they do survive, their lives will be grim with no hope of ever recovering the lives they have lived up to now. It would be horrible to have seen such wonders as technology has wrought, only to have it all snatched away and be handed a candle and horse-driven plow instead.

Perhaps that's the evolutionary value of Denial. It keeps you from killing yourself.
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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

Nano