Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
The last time the tourism industry was hit by an economic downturn was after the Asian crisis in 2000.
But that will be just a blip compared to what operators are now facing, says Paul Yeo, head of the inbound tour operators council and the travel agents' association....
...as winter sets in there are signs that the long holiday enjoyed by the industry is at an end.
Last month visitor arrivals plunged by 8 per cent on the previous year's April figures - although that's blamed on an early Easter.
The growth of tourists coming to New Zealand has fallen from a year on year average of 4 or 5 per cent to just 1 per cent in the last year...
...But there is a new problem for the industry - one that few are disputing is cause for concern.
The word on everyone's lips is oil. How much higher will it go? And how will airfare increases affect tourism for a nation which is just about as far away as you can get from all the world's main population centres?
Tourism is New Zealand's largest export earner - in the year to March 2006 (the latest figure available) international visitors contributed $8.3 billion to the economy.
Combined with domestic tourism it is worth more than $18 billion to New Zealand's economy and last year represented 8.9 per cent of GDP.
In comparison, New Zealand's dairy industry is forecast to be worth $9.6 billion next year and represents 6 per cent of GDP.
One in every 10 New Zealanders are either directly or indirectly employed in tourism.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs says it's a vital part of the economy and any downturn would clearly be bad news.
"The rising costs of travel in light of the rising costs of fuel will probably see numbers of international visitors drop. Clearly it's negative for the economy."
Well well well, tourism needs cheap oil to be viable when you're 10,000 k's from anywhere eh? Who knew?
Joined: Jul 12, 2004 Posts: 131 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:22 am Post subject: Re: haere mai, everything is ka pai
" to coin a phrase this is the day of ""DAZE ""
Just been talking to a student from Tahiti who is here in NZ learning English so she can get a job teaching as her peers can't land a job in tourism back home - got a little talk from me to say its because of peak oil and that her career choice was the right one.
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: Re: haere mai, everything is ka pai
NZ is like Hawaii.
Regression to stone age will be relatively quicker than elsewhere. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: haere mai, everything is ka pai
Cashmere wrote:
NZ is like Hawaii.
Regression to stone age will be relatively quicker than elsewhere.
Care to elaborate?
I always thought there would be worse places to be than NZ when TSHTF.
Low population density, good soil, relatively large proportion of the population still retain a connection to the land, majority are hard-working, helpful and honest. Oh, and my wife's from there - so maybe I'm biased!
Just because the tourism industry is tanking doesn't propel you swiftly back to the stone age. I don't know much about Hawaii, but I imagine it wouldn't be too bad a place to live once planeloads of American tourists stop cluttering the place up.
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