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Graeme
Fission
Joined: Mar 04, 2005
Posts: 2638
Location: New Zealand
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 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes
| Quote: | This energy outlook for natural gas to 2030 was developed by the US Energy Information Administration and focuses on a short-term reference case, Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), which it compares with the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) reference case.
Meanwhile, this reference case assumes that current policies affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period. Policy changes-such as the adoption of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions-could change the projections.
Trends in energy supply and demand are affected by difficult-to- predict factors: energy prices, US and worldwide economic growth, advances in technologies, and future public policy decisions in the US and in other countries.
Key energy market changes EIA analysts have identified include:
* Higher oil and gas prices.
* Higher delivered energy prices, reflecting both higher wellhead prices and transportation and distribution costs.
* Slower projected growth in energy demand, especially for gas.
* Faster projected growth in the use of (nonhydroelectric) renewable energy forms.
* Higher domestic oil production in the near term.
* Slower projected growth in gas imports.
* Slower projected growth in energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide.
These important adjustments, however, have limited implications for some parts of the overall energy outlook, and US energy consumption will continue to be met predominantly by traditional fossil fuels, with coal, liquid fuel (excluding biofuels included in liquids), and natural gas meeting 83% of total US primary energy supply requirements in 2030-down only slightly from an 85% share in 2006 despite higher energy prices, lower total energy demand, and increased use of renewable energy compared with AEO2007. |
redorbit
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3681
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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Here is a link to the pricing assumptions that went into the "reference case" so to speak:
EIA
They have converted all of the pricing to "dollars per million BTU's. For the common good, I have converted the unleaded gasoline estimate back to "dollars per gallon": Actually, this is "cents per gallon" but their decimal point (not mine) was off.
2005 154.7456734
2006 169.831921
2007 177.5272994
2008 177.3966381
2009 168.3629161
2010 163.8043886
2011 159.8307295
2012 156.7138976
2013 154.9307555
2014 152.2346038
2015 149.889226
2016 147.9224267
2017 149.4976868
2018 151.0735676
2019 151.8906677
So I am thinking I will start flirting online or something instead of this, because if the government is right, after this next couple of years, everything will be wonderful.
Seriously, do they not think anyone will do the work to check into this?
Their estimate of the "current price" is only about 40% off at the moment.
(shakes head) |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1627
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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| pup55 wrote: |
(shakes head) |
If I recall correctly, they were reamed by Congress back in the late 70's for completely missing the impending peak of US oil extraction and being too optimistic then. Are they being instructed to sugar coat their estimates so that can be the whipping boy again and the politicians can claim they were just following the projections of the "experts"?
Am I terminally cynical?
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"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4369
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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This is 2008. Gasoline is 177 cents per gallon? Where?
A very good way to go broke fast is to make your energy sector investments based on EIA projections.
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3681
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:34 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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| Quote: | 2005 2.199531211
2006 2.418243564
2007 2.524997946
2008 2.51630709
2009 2.381962133
2010 2.317564115
2011 2.26140612
2012 2.217345415
2013 2.192156479
2014 2.154051573
2015 2.120889864
2016 2.093078266
2017 2.11539978
2018 2.137723861
2019 2.149314667
2020 2.182018632 |
My bad, I am out of whack this evening. Here is the slightly more reasonable corrected version.
So they are only about 60 cents off for the moment.
When this stuff happens, I always say the same thing: Don't believe everything you see on the internet. |
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Oil-Finder
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 11, 2007
Posts: 631
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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I'm not sure why people are so skeptical of this. Demand for natural gas in the US has been flat for over 10 years.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2A.htm |
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Mechler
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Feb 02, 2006
Posts: 291
Location: Denver, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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| Quote: | Demand for natural gas in the US has been flat for over 10 years.
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Um, dude, that's what happens when you relocate almost all of your manufacturing base overseas. I'm not so sure the US public is ready to outsource their driving, much to the dismay of billions of Chinese and Indians.
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4369
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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With the wholesale exporting of America's manufacturing base over the past 20 years, or so, it's a miracle we're holding steady on NG usage.
Yeah, outsourcing soccer for soccer moms. Good idea. Let the little rascals get driven around in China. I've had enough of them hogging the roads in their monster SUV's anyhow. Good riddance.
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Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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Oil-Finder
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 11, 2007
Posts: 631
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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| Mechler wrote: | | Quote: | Demand for natural gas in the US has been flat for over 10 years.
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Um, dude, that's what happens when you relocate almost all of your manufacturing base overseas. I'm not so sure the US public is ready to outsource their driving, much to the dismay of billions of Chinese and Indians. |
People don't drive their cars with natural gas.
I don't believe outsourcing of manufacturing has much to do with flat demand for natural gas. Increased efficiency is almost certainly the main reason for this. After all, there have been tons of natural gas power plants built in the past 10 years. And yet, demand still remains flat. |
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Oil-Finder
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 11, 2007
Posts: 631
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:07 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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Here is an EIA chart showing natural gas demand by end user since 2001:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
- Residential consumption has declined
- Commercial consumption has declined
- Industrial consumption has declined
- Electric power consumption has gone up
- Vehicle fuel consumption has also gone up, but that's a very small percentage of total use
So it's not just industrial use which has declined. Aside from electric power generation, it's been a broad-based decline. |
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Mechler
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Feb 02, 2006
Posts: 291
Location: Denver, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:39 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Gas Projections to 2030 Identify Market Changes |
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Here are the numbers comparing 1997 to 2006:
Residential -12.3%
Commercial -11.8%
Industrial -23.6%
Electric power +53.1%
Efficiency may be a part, substituting electrical energy for gas energy may be a factor, as well as climate change (hotter summers and milder winters = more A/C (electricity) and less gas heating). It would be nice to see the data, but I'm sure the decrease in industry is a factor.
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"It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age |
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