Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) is persistently calling for a storm to originate to the east of Nicaragua, then move northward across western to Cuba, graze or hit Miami about June 6 or so and then go up the Atlantic seaboard. The latest run has it grazing the coast. If the runs go further west, and the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), does that mean $6 gasoline, even if it never strikes the refineries and rigs on or near the GOM? It seems that whenever tropical weather approaches the GOM, the price of oil goes up.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 597 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 5:33 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
Alnitaka wrote:
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) is persistently calling for a storm to originate to the east of Nicaragua, then move northward across western to Cuba, graze or hit Miami about June 6 or so and then go up the Atlantic seaboard. The latest run has it grazing the coast. If the runs go further west, and the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), does that mean $6 gasoline, even if it never strikes the refineries and rigs on or near the GOM? It seems that whenever tropical weather approaches the GOM, the price of oil goes up.
These long-term GFS forecasts very rarely verify, especially with tropical systems, so I wouldn't put too much stock in this scenario.
It's when it gets to be Aug / Sept and the big storms start rolling towards the Gulf that it's time to get excited. I would LOVE for a Cat 5 to run parallel to the western Gulf Coast for a ways...really shut down production for a while....LOL.
Then we might see some actual shortages develop...I hope! _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
There's the kicker, sometimes these forecasts do verify http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/. Right now the NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET are lining up on this one. Only the Euro is not on the same idea.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
This year the price of oil will go up as soon as any tropical storm forms anywhere.No matter where it forms,it can still wind up in the Gulf.Therefore,it must be percieved as a threat to supply and in this supercharged market i see $150 oil as being cheap.The rich will keep getting richer etc. etc. etc.Get ready people,it's very likely that we'll see $200 by august or september. _________________ Gimme some demand destruction.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
One thing to note about the GFS forecast model is the resolution change at 192 hours, which often leads to spurious solutions.
However, that being said, the model forms an area of disturbed weather off the central America coast in the next few days and moves it north near the Yucutan peninsula, before ejecting it into the gulf:
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4279 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm First Week of 2008 June?
Yeah... who knows. I'll believe it all when it forms and when it starts moving. These weather models are just a tool, nothing to live by. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
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