Joined: Jan 03, 2005 Posts: 1185 Location: western Wisconsin
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
As far as I have been able to find out, no one is building any factories producing solar electric cells or panels using any of the new technologies developed in the last 10 to 20 years. All the factories in production or being build use the existing older technologies.
There have been news releases and rumours about cheaper PVs for as long as I have been paying attention to them--and my oldest PV panels are going to be 26 years old this year, I think. It reminds me of the hype over nuclear power back in the 1950s and early 1960s--"It will be too cheap to meter".
Buy some PVs now, along with the inverter, controller, batteries or whatever you decide you need to make use of them, and add to your system when they get cheaper, or as you can afford to. Don't keep waiting for some wonderful breakthrough.
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
This is all old news. For example, nanosolar (link) has gotten funding from google and the DoE. New technique to lower the cost of PV technology using 'printing press' techniques and quantum dots. Still haven't heard anything from them.. they made it sound in 2005 like they were about to go into production. Apparently they've hit some snags.
People have been talking about new and improved solar technology for decades. Yet nothing has been able to dethrone the basic mono/poly Si PV technology. It has the combination of stability, robustness and longevity that has stymied all its competitors. Actually Si PV technology is amazing -- even a 10% efficient panel is more efficient than a plant (photosynthesis) at harvesting energy from sunlight, and they last decades.
I agree with WisJim - if you're interested in solar get something NOW, with the existing and proven technology. Yes it's expensive but it works.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
Hi All,
I'm new to the forum but want to let you all know that incorporating solar into your lives is easier than you think. You don't have to start off trying to produce 100% of your daily energy loads. You can even isolate a few circuits (good idea to start with critical loads like refrigeration and lights in case of power outage) and expand as budget allows. Several states like NY, CA, NJ have huge state grants that pay for up to 50% of system costs.
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity. _________________ "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." Homer Simpson
Joined: Oct 28, 2006 Posts: 150 Location: Southern California
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
joe1347 wrote:
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity.
Lots of people keep saying solar is here now, but I don't see any people/cities/states buying.
Maybe we need to ask, if solar is here TODAY, why isn't is being adopted on a useful scale?
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:44 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
grink1tt3n wrote:
joe1347 wrote:
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity.
Lots of people keep saying solar is here now, but I don't see any people/cities/states buying.
Maybe we need to ask, if solar is here TODAY, why isn't is being adopted on a useful scale?
Simple answer. Solar (photovoltaic) Generated electricity is about 20 cents/Kw-Hr today www.solarbuzz.com while coal fired electricity is closer to 5 cents/Kw-Hr. Few are willing (today) to pay a $1000/month electricity bill for clean (no CO2) power generated by Solar Cells. Of course, the situation changes dramatically if CO2 sequestration is mandated. I seem to remember reading estimates (sorry no link) that the sequestration may triple power generation costs. Combine that with rapidly rising Natural Gas prices and Solar (photovoltaics) begin to look more competitive (economically) especially is the price per watt-peak (for Solar) declines with economies of scale and aggressive R&D expenditures, which may happen under the next administration. Realistically, no politician today will likely be willing to mandate sequestration (for coal) - unless the direct price/cost (to the consumer) is trivial. Now if global warming effects become what you could call up close and personal in the very near future, the masses may start screaming for reduced CO2 emissions - or alternatively - if coal becomes much more expensive (3X) in the not too distant future thanks to increased demand from coal-to-liquid synfuel plants, then solar will certainly look financially attractive. Then again, a future US Administration may simply decide to install a terawatt of Solar (for a $Trillion or so) power to ensure that our economy has adequate power while carbon based fuels continue to dwindle in availability (yeah right). _________________ "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." Homer Simpson
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:11 am Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
joe1347 wrote:
[
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity.
At this point we're never going to see anywhere close to a terawatt worth of PV. You're dreaming. 1 terawatt for a trillion dollars my foot. Show me the math on that one. Real panels cost between $3-5/watt, go figure.
Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 1001 Location: Down Under
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
eric_b wrote:
Actually Si PV technology is amazing -- even a 10% efficient panel is more efficient than a plant (photosynthesis) at harvesting energy from sunlight, and they last decades.
doesn't photosynthesis have close to 100% quantum efficiency, meaning that 1 quantum of light leads to one quantum of energy? The overall process is of course much lower (around 3% to 6% I think), but in the primary reaction plants capture almost all of the energy that hits a leaf. PV technology is no where near reaching this level of efficiency yet. _________________ "Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3398 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
Robert Rapier just posted an interesting article at the Oil Drum, The Future is Solar. His feelings on the matter are expressed in the title.
Thanks for the link Bluesun, but I think you're violating the Code of Conduct for this forum by posting an implicitly commercial link you have a financial stake in, in your sig. Maybe I'm wrong...nice site at any rate. Never thought of going solar by stages, why don't more people talk about that? Everyone's always going on about this $30K investment you have to make. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
eric_b wrote:
joe1347 wrote:
[
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity.
At this point we're never going to see anywhere close to a terawatt worth of PV. You're dreaming. 1 terawatt for a trillion dollars my foot. Show me the math on that one. Real panels cost between $3-5/watt, go figure.
As requested, linked below (along with the abstract and conclusions) is a paper from Georgia Tech that illustrates how $1 per Watt-Peak is realistic using silicon-based technology for photovotaics in the not too distant future.
Possibly I'm mistaken, but I believe that 1 terawatt = 1 trillion watts. Hence, a terrawatt of Photovoltaic generated power will cost $1 Trillion. Of course, I'm ignoring energy storage and the fact that the power will only be generated while the sun is shining.
Cost and Technology Roadmaps for Cost-Effective Silicon Photovoltaics
Ajeet Rohatgia, Alan Ristowa, and Vijay Yelundurb
aSchool of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
The cost of photovoltaics (PV) is expected to decrease by a factor of two to four within the next two decades, making PV an integral part of the solution to the problems of fossil fuel depletion and growing energy demand. This paper describes cost and technology roadmaps for achieving 17–18%- efficient crystalline Si solar cells at a competitive manufacturing cost of less than $1/W.
. . .
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The silent revolution in crystalline Si solar
cell technology continues in spite of economic,
technical, and political hurdles and competition
from other promising PV materials. Silicon PV
has demonstrated most of the major attributes for
commercial success, namely efficiency, stability,
manufacturability, high yield, and scalability.
Cost analysis shows that the current direct
manufacturing cost of Si modules has reached
$1.98/W and can go below $1/W to compete with
traditional energy sources. This will require 150–
200-m thick, 17–18% efficient cells with 100–
500 MW production lines. The technology
roadmap shows that this cost reduction can be
achieved with thinner Si substrates, modest bulk
lifetime, better back surface passivation,
improved screen printing, and surface texturing.
Considerable progress has been made in each of
these areas and efficiencies approaching 17–18%
have been recently achieved in the laboratories
for single crystal Si-based screen-printed cells,
laser grooved buried contact cells, and HIT cells.
In addition, cast and ribbon multicrystalline-based
screen-printed cell efficiencies have reached
15.5–17% in the laboratories. Furthermore, the
scalability of Si technologies has exceeded 100
MW with a proven track record of decades of
reliable service. Thus, crystalline Si is a safe bet
for cost-effective PV.
_________________ "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true." Homer Simpson
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
joe1347 wrote:
eric_b wrote:
joe1347 wrote:
[
Lots of Hype - but never a real product. Maybe someone will make a great discovery. But there's no need to wait. Silicon-based solar cells are available today and can be scaled up (in volume) to provide terawatts of electricity.
At this point we're never going to see anywhere close to a terawatt worth of PV. You're dreaming. 1 terawatt for a trillion dollars my foot. Show me the math on that one. Real panels cost between $3-5/watt, go figure.
As requested, linked below (along with the abstract and conclusions) is a paper from Georgia Tech that illustrates how $1 per Watt-Peak is realistic using silicon-based technology for photovotaics in the not too distant future.
Possibly I'm mistaken, but I believe that 1 terawatt = 1 trillion watts. Hence, a terrawatt of Photovoltaic generated power will cost $1 Trillion. Of course, I'm ignoring energy storage and the fact that the power will only be generated while the sun is shining.
Guess it depends on how you define 'trillion'. lol. Here in the US it's often defined, at least by daft economists as 1*10^9 (nine zeros) - of course this should really be giga. Has a ring to it, eh? Thus the Iraq war is now running around 2 giga dollars. Ouch.. Tera is 12 zeros, same as the correct definition of trillion - a bit more PV & power than we need at this point, fortunately
{EDIT -- Oops my bad. Actually current electric use in the US is measured in terawatts.. an average of greater than 11 tera watt hours daily, just in the US }
The PV link was interesting. Look.. I like PV. I think it's keen. You just have to be realistic about things here. That link was still all experimental, 'lab' stuff. They've been talking about those efficiency numbers and target $$/watt for decades now.
When you look at current PV capacity and growth, real world panel costs (not to mention the many other infrastructure costs associated with PV) and then compare that to what needs to be replaced, you come up short.. way short. It's not a viable solution at this point unfortunately.
If you want to talk sci-fi, one interesting idea I first heard of on usenet groups (called something like h2-pv.. ug can't remember) involved a PV production plant that makes one copy of itself using solar power. Each iteration doubles your capacity. Repeat x iterations until you're close to target capacity.
Last edited by eric_b on Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:30 am Post subject: Re: Photovoltaics using nanotechnology
Photovoltaic prices have certainly come down dramatically in the past few decades. From the price trends, the current concern or issue seems related to stagnation with regards to the price not dropping much recently. Of course, demand for Photovoltaics has risen significantly in the recent years and possibly all that we're seeing is basic supply and demand economics at work.
The oil industry uses price per barrel as its unit of price measurement. The solar energy industry typically uses price per Watt Peak (Wp) as its primary unit of measurement. The prices for high power band (>70 Watts) solar modules has dropped from around $27/Wp in 1982 to around $4/Wp today.
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