| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Ache Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 23, 2005 Posts: 263
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Fredrik Heavy Crude


Joined: Nov 05, 2006 Posts: 408 Location: Finland
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
If physical infrastructure decays as quickly and as massively as Simmons says, it will probably make the initial drop in supply quite steep, but preserve a little more oil reserves for later years. Whether it will be financially possible or energetically sensible to build huge new rigs and drilling equipment to get the remaining harder-to-extract oil, is another matter. _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
ZombieMalthus Tar Sands


Joined: May 14, 2008 Posts: 23
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 3:20 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
Geez, aliens blowing up the Whitehouse, the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, ... Simmons is getting really alarmist.
Fun read, though. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
TheDude Expert


Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
Sounds like Matt's a Neil Young fan, too. Maybe his next PPT will state that Cantarell's decline is Cortez the Killer...  _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
mididoctors Intermediate Crude


Joined: Aug 30, 2004 Posts: 558 Location: London
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
He does appear to be freaking out....
well he always described himself as a energy worrier.
energy Czars .. not very adam smith.
Boris
London |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pstarr Expert


Joined: Sep 27, 2004 Posts: 7180 Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
| ZombieMalthus wrote: | Geez, aliens blowing up the Whitehouse, the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, ... Simmons is getting really alarmist.
Fun read, though. | Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
When a well-respected and successful investment banker, an adviser to presidents, and the best-selling author of a very very technical journal-quality thesis on Saudi Arabian petroleum geology comments on the structural, financial, and social consequences of petroleum decline and failing infrastructure, I would grant it more than a cute quip. Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
huh? _________________
ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
MacG Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 04, 2005 Posts: 1178
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
| Relevant. And scary. He's been touching the infrastructure questions for a couple of years, but now he focus on them. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
ZombieMalthus Tar Sands


Joined: May 14, 2008 Posts: 23
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
| pstarr wrote: | Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
huh? |
Yeah, I read through it. I showed it to a couple people too. I thought it was a pretty unique look at the problem.
Most people are just worried about whether there's enough oil in the ground, if they're worried at all. Simmons is also pointing out that the infrastructure to get that oil is breaking down. Upkeep is going to be an unignoreable added cost to exploiting energy reserves.
We're trying to build a 21st century civilization off of rusting, decaying 20th century energy infrastructure.
Something is gonna give, sooner or later.
I simply found the pictures of pestilence, death, and aliens the most striking. I could only imagine Simmons showing those slides at a $1000 per seat luncheon. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
RedStateGreen Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1469 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
Well, something Fredrik touched on is the feedback loop Aaron (?) talked about in another thread. When oil gets pricey enough that it makes sense to redo the infrastructure, it will be too expensive because of all the oil needed to build the infrastructure.
I really think we've messed things up this time. _________________ Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
alokin Intermediate Crude


Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 883
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
It makes no sense redoing all the infrastructure while reserves are dwindling. The money would be better invested in renewables and energy saving technology.
It's quite scary, not only of the delivery disruptures but for the environmental damage of each leak, the damaging of soils, drinking water and habitat. I reckon oil companies do not pay for this sort af damage... |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pstarr Expert


Joined: Sep 27, 2004 Posts: 7180 Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
|
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
| ZombieMalthus wrote: | | pstarr wrote: | Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
huh? |
Yeah, I read through it. I showed it to a couple people too. I thought it was a pretty unique look at the problem.
Most people are just worried about whether there's enough oil in the ground, if they're worried at all. Simmons is also pointing out that the infrastructure to get that oil is breaking down. Upkeep is going to be an unignoreable added cost to exploiting energy reserves.
We're trying to build a 21st century civilization off of rusting, decaying 20th century energy infrastructure.
Something is gonna give, sooner or later.
I simply found the pictures of pestilence, death, and aliens the most striking. I could only imagine Simmons showing those slides at a $1000 per seat luncheon. | Got it. and welcome to PO.com  _________________
ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
TheDude Expert


Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
|
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
| alokin wrote: | | It makes no sense redoing all the infrastructure while reserves are dwindling. The money would be better invested in renewables and energy saving technology. |
Yeah. Would like to see a prioritized list of what Matt thinks should be taken care of, instead of knowing that fixing everything will set us back $50 trillion+. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Twilight Expert


Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK
|
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
That was a good presentation. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
GASMON Intermediate Crude


Joined: Mar 29, 2008 Posts: 846 Location: England
|
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion |
|
|
As a UK gas engineer involved in gas pipeline renewal, I have to say that is a good report.
Yes, steel rusts, but ALL steel pipelines of any importance have several built in ways to combat corrosion.
Outer coating - usually plastic sleeve over bitumastic base, or better still powder or polymer / epoxy coatings
Inside wall - similar to above or other (many types) of internal coatings.
Ongoing protection - Either sacraficial anode or impressed current cathodic protection.
ALL the above work & work well. I plan replacement gas mains for my living - I cant ever remember replacing any modern (1960's or later) steel gas on-land pipeline due to corrosion.
Not to say we dont have the occasional pipeline corrosion problem, which causes a localised repair or short replacement section. This is usually caused by external interference damage to the coating, allowing corrosion. On UK high pressure pipelines this is picked up by the "intelligent pig" as mentioned in the report, and developed by British Gas. Cathodic protection monitoring also VERY important.
Undersea a different matter - I'm not qualified or experienced to comment.
Simple reply to a complex subject, but I would not lose sleep worrying about corrosion of overland steel pipelines. Not in the UK anyway.
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|