How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1956 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
In this press release, CERA are now suggesting that US gasoline demand may have peaked in 2007.
With gasoline prices are much lower than in Europe and elsewhere (and so a likelihood that the pain of higher prices will become less over time), is it possible to acknowledge a peak in gasoline usage without acknowledging a peak in oil production? If production will rise as much as CERA has previously claimed, wouldn't they expect the US to claim some of that increased production? Wouldn't they expect a population growth of almost 1% per year to ultimately produce a higher demand, long term, unless oil has peaked, or will likely peak in the near future?
I can't quite figure out why CERA would make such a bold claim, if it still believed in the optimistic forecasts it was putting out only recently (for the medium term production of oil).
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1654 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
TonyPrep wrote:
is it possible to acknowledge a peak in gasoline usage without acknowledging a peak in oil production?
He's drawing a pretty clear distinction between the two:
Daniel Yergin wrote:
"As the committee knows, there is much talk about 'peak oil' supply these days," said Yergin. "However, we think something else is at hand - 'peak demand' - at least in terms of U.S. gasoline consumption," Yergin said. "In our view, 2007 may well have been the top, the peak, in terms of U.S. gasoline demand."
CERA. I don't take seriously much these guys have to say. They're the anti-ASPO - endlessly optimistic. This is just the most optimistic spin they could put on this situation. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:39 pm Post subject: Re: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
TonyPrep wrote:
is it possible to acknowledge a peak in gasoline usage without acknowledging a peak in oil production?
Yes. I'm not sure why that is difficult to understand...
Here's another example. EIA statistics show that oil consumption in Japan peaked in 1996 -- 12 years ago -- and has been declining ever since. "Peak oil" in Japan was a demand driven phenomenon. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1646 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:10 am Post subject: Re: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
Quote:
However, we think something else is at hand - 'peak demand' - at least in terms of U.S. gasoline consumption
Can that be read an anything else than US economy and/or Dollar is going down the drain but possibly other nations wont? _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1956 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
JohnDenver wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
is it possible to acknowledge a peak in gasoline usage without acknowledging a peak in oil production?
Yes. I'm not sure why that is difficult to understand...
Here's another example. EIA statistics show that oil consumption in Japan peaked in 1996 -- 12 years ago -- and has been declining ever since. "Peak oil" in Japan was a demand driven phenomenon.
Japan's population has been static or declining for a long time. Not so, the USA's. That's partly why it's so difficult to understand. Another is the population density and the apparent aspirations of American citizens. To expect gasoline use in the US never to rise again, ever, especially with a rising population seems to be an unlikely belief, unless you think that oil production will, at least, lag demand from now on.
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:40 am Post subject: Re: Is CERA Coming Round to the Idea of Peak?
UK oil and energy use has been pretty flat or even slightly down over the past 40 years too. Is this because we don't need oil anymore? No! It is because we have exported our industry and manufacturing to the far East and instead run our economy on people typing in spreadsheets, football clubs and people suing each other. Our oil demand hasn't peaked, it's just been exported somewhere else so it doesn't show up on our figures. I imagine it's the same for Japan.
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